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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    GEFS trends last 6 runs
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    In the past, this would be the perfect time for the Euro to pop in and suppress things just to throw a wrench. Now that we got the gfs to cave, I kind of expect it....we've done this before time and time again. Its never easy.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC with another batch developing 144 lol
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    BOOM!
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC was a foot+.....GFS was 6-12
  6. Ralph Wiggum
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Forgive the rudimentary graphics....but a little faster with A and/or a little slower with B and this can be something more
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    This is his storm too isn't it. Guy laying down on the job. Give him his papers Randy
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Hp eases off a hair as well. That will also not hurt in the tick N this run. Good changes.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Massive changes at 120 vs 18z
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    It would seriously take an epic system failure from nearly every single piece of guidance (outside of actually cherry picking individual ens members). That won't happen, this isnt 2001.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Smoking cirrus. I always set expectations low. Ground whitening is a win in my book.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    I always found it amazing to get a huge storm with 10' drifts then have a patch adjacent where there is bare ground. The wind does some cool things.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Nervous about what? There is virtually zero chance this misses your subforum. Just because you may not get the 48" you crave, please dont ruin it for the rest of the forum. These guys have waited an eternity for a forum-wide warning type event.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    I think he is just looking at the qpf output? Neither of those guidance tools were ever a big hit up this way....always had the main stuff South of the area thru the Del Marva. That band ticked south but precip on the Northern edge expanded/enhanced due to the new NS feature that is showing up. Reality is, we moved away from the good banding which is now well South. Maybe that will come North in future runs, but Im not so sure.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Surface low ticked South. A new wrench in the NS traveled thru the flow in the NS and enhanced precip for the area. Wasn't directly associated with the main low off the SC/NC coast. I think drought guy alluded to this and suggested this feature will draw the stj low North. Im not sold on that happening attm.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    In other news, the Allen Iverson Euro at 18z still has potential after this weekend. Has a system on the 29th offshore then has this clean Miller A beast at the end of the run again:
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    If atmosphere has memory, which I do believe in similar tendencies, this will likely be another minor event like either last Saturday or Sunday, respectively.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Yep, starting to morph into an entirely different setup if we are being honest.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Ai gfs
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    18z gfs is another 2-4" event to pad our seasonal stats.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Ai GFS is a potential 2 wave long duration system. Yes, went south but still honking for a major event.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    AI is wayyy south. Suppression is a very major concern.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    That piece, the press of the PV and confluence, location/strength of hp. See @SnowenOutThere post above. He did a great job breaking it down.
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