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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Hey I work 10hr days dude lol cut me some slack.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Follow the euro it is almost never wrong
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    I thought the gfs looked like a slight step.back tbh at 500mb
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Funny thing is, gfs keeps doubling down even slight improvements each run....but its not like other guidance is trending bigly the other way. There has been very slow/subtle shifts across other guidance even giving a slight nod to the GFS. I dont think the GFS is 100% accurate by any means, but a 6hr change in timing of the shortwave in question on other guidance and boom the GFS suddenly has legs. We'll see. Being a betting man Im putting the mortgage on the gfs being the outlier though.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Maybe he's compensating for something?
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    How does the latest SPIRE look?
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    It has done this 4 times already this season and stubbornly caved starting at 2.5 days lead time. Why will this be any different?
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    I trust Hurricane Schwartz, Larry Cosgrove, and even dare I say DT more than a FB blurb only posting model output.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    When most major respected mets have written this off, that speaks volumes.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Most of us would. But it feel like we've been led down this road a few times already this season where the GFS/GEFS go against concensus and move towards something bigger while the other models slowly move to the Euro. Then when we are within 3 days the GFS stubbornly and slowly moves away from the big storm. Im hoping we are not seeing this again here, so I am being cautious with this one.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    RGEM is tucked so much that it's rain to start all.the way to the LV.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Hurricane Schwartz a short while ago says we lost this one way south and wont curve fast enough to hit us. Claims there is virtually no model support at all for a high impact storm. All guidance is clustered Hatteras and south with the surface low.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    You do know it has snowed in the first days of March before right? And mid March. And late March. Accumulating snows into mid April too. But I'll take your word, thanks for the hot take.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks like winter isnt over either after this weekend per the GFS. Models continue to trend colder next 2 weeks. Here's the March 3 system:
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    3rd period USA-Sweden olympic men's hockey. Should.be a banger.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    He should stay there tbh
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    I was somewhat surprised at how big of a jump the EPS made also.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    @ravensrule
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Hurricane Schwartz is not impressed in the least with the threat this weekend
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    There are at least 3 that need to be 5-posted or even banned. Let the rest of us enjoy what may be one of the last trackable events of the season.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    GEPS otoh:
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    GEFS went east. This is the fail scenario that most concers me and fits seasonal pattern.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    My expectations remain tempered. Too many SE leaning members across the ens.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Thats enough of a shift for me from this stubborn model. Guys....
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    No i do not. Still too early imho. However, I am leaning against suppression. If anything...progressive system missing a full phase-capture is more a concern imo based on seasonal patterns and the Euro deterministic still sends up a red flag. Could see this hammering coastal zones and just grazing west of i95. That is our most likely 'fail' scenario.
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