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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. In the past, this would be the perfect time for the Euro to pop in and suppress things just to throw a wrench. Now that we got the gfs to cave, I kind of expect it....we've done this before time and time again. Its never easy.
  2. CMC with another batch developing 144 lol
  3. Forgive the rudimentary graphics....but a little faster with A and/or a little slower with B and this can be something more
  4. This is his storm too isn't it. Guy laying down on the job. Give him his papers Randy
  5. Hp eases off a hair as well. That will also not hurt in the tick N this run. Good changes.
  6. It would seriously take an epic system failure from nearly every single piece of guidance (outside of actually cherry picking individual ens members). That won't happen, this isnt 2001.
  7. Smoking cirrus. I always set expectations low. Ground whitening is a win in my book.
  8. I always found it amazing to get a huge storm with 10' drifts then have a patch adjacent where there is bare ground. The wind does some cool things.
  9. Nervous about what? There is virtually zero chance this misses your subforum. Just because you may not get the 48" you crave, please dont ruin it for the rest of the forum. These guys have waited an eternity for a forum-wide warning type event.
  10. I think he is just looking at the qpf output? Neither of those guidance tools were ever a big hit up this way....always had the main stuff South of the area thru the Del Marva. That band ticked south but precip on the Northern edge expanded/enhanced due to the new NS feature that is showing up. Reality is, we moved away from the good banding which is now well South. Maybe that will come North in future runs, but Im not so sure.
  11. Surface low ticked South. A new wrench in the NS traveled thru the flow in the NS and enhanced precip for the area. Wasn't directly associated with the main low off the SC/NC coast. I think drought guy alluded to this and suggested this feature will draw the stj low North. Im not sold on that happening attm.
  12. In other news, the Allen Iverson Euro at 18z still has potential after this weekend. Has a system on the 29th offshore then has this clean Miller A beast at the end of the run again:
  13. If atmosphere has memory, which I do believe in similar tendencies, this will likely be another minor event like either last Saturday or Sunday, respectively.
  14. Yep, starting to morph into an entirely different setup if we are being honest.
  15. 18z gfs is another 2-4" event to pad our seasonal stats.
  16. Ai GFS is a potential 2 wave long duration system. Yes, went south but still honking for a major event.
  17. AI is wayyy south. Suppression is a very major concern.
  18. That piece, the press of the PV and confluence, location/strength of hp. See @SnowenOutThere post above. He did a great job breaking it down.
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