Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. GFS is improved but I'm not sure it is handling the NS correctly and is likely up to its antics of overdoing the cold push. Better baby steps so far at 12z. At least @Ji now has the digital snow on some guidance he was begging for last night.
  2. Wasnt me but I echo those sentiments. Im not even invested in this one (yet) and I'm n and w of Philly. Get within 72 hours and maybe.
  3. Well, sounds like drug addiction tbh. But with that said, for many of us chasing a HECS can be comparable on a different level of course. Explains the mood swings here at times. We need a fix....stat!
  4. ICON wont be suppressed. Not sure how amped and how far N or W it will be tho. Eta: trending to last nights UKIE. Suppression isnt going to be the way we fail.
  5. 1995-96 nina. Just saying. During the solar min lag no? Maybe next year a Nina wouldnt respond like a typical nina with the solar lag many have discussed?
  6. Been saying this for a while now. It's like a PC reboot. Sometimes you need a strong event. Even a strong nino might work tbh. But need to reshuffle the deck in the PAC for sure.
  7. Going to turn to severe weather soon. I have a gut feeling we miss out on decent March snows this year. Maybe a fluke rogue system but I see nothing that is hinting at a favorable late season pattern after next week tbh. Weeklies hinted at HL blocking but will probably be too little too late. We dont even have the widespread cold bottled in the HL this year, more like some idolized arctic air focused around the PV and that's it. Many unfrozen bodies of water that are usually solid ice, ssts still AN, etc. I say bring on the thunder, striped bass, and Phillies (and hopefully Flyers playoffs)!!
  8. Canadian has led the pack plunging the PV into the States this season while the Euro would be reverse and pump heights. I know the atmosphere doesnt have a memory and all that stuff, but I will place my $$ on the Euro (the favorite) and take the easy money. I'm sure as a gambler tho, you would take the odds on the underdog correct?
  9. Also, have we seen the PV drop even once this winter when forecast? Asking for a friend.
  10. Even the NAVGEM has the bowling ball and appears threatening. GFS is out to lunch imo. Bigger fail chance is going to be a phase too soon/amped solution and not flat squashed.
  11. Isnt the ukie at H5 phasing too far West tho and also pumping heights out ahead in the east?
  12. Juicy ... looks like the GOM will be open for business.
  13. This had best not turn into "but the Friday system is setting up the follow up storm" where both systems take a dump and the entire period fails. But that would never happen, so yeah.
  14. Cmc has way better cad though Yep just added.that above you ninja'd me
  15. GFS and CMC say no VD storm and have the same system with a stale airmass 2 days later. Eta: CMC a little slower departing the hp. In any event something wants to pop between Fri and Sun it appears
  16. The window I have been keying on is upon us (Feb 6-14) and could very well be our last chance before the SE Ridge tries to go full latitude and lock in the 2nd half of Feb. Best shot at something appears to be developing closer to the middle/end of this period and the Great Valentine's Day Storm of 2020 may also in fact be a legit entity if you believe several pieces of guidance. Alot of well-timed players would need to interact but they are at least all showing up on the field. Bowling ball Southern low, PV wobbling thru the 50/50 region, strong arctic hp, northern energy attempting to merge with the big ull.
  17. The Great VD Storm of 2020 has legs and shouldn't be referred to as sneaky imo. The planetary alignment, SPV pummelling, and other LR ens data including weekly charts have all been signaling a large longwave event in the East during this time frame. Hopefully it comes together!
  18. Weeklies are ok, if you like a -NAO in March.
  19. 0z has it at 957mb. I have a feeling the NAM is suffering from convective feed back issues. Just a guess.
  20. It's not over yet. If you can get like 3 weeks of persistent -10SD nao you might at least break at neutral. I'm gonna say that probably isnt going to happen tho.
  21. We all need the Great Valentine's Day Storm so we can celebrate our love of the winter and of one another. Maybe....