Ralph Wiggum

Burst of moderate wet snow right now. Wiggum Rule is alive and well.

I see what you are saying and tbh I used to think along those lines 30 years ago until I realized the weather is always changing, patterns are always flipping, and records are still being broken. Weather will do what it wants, when it wants. I hope you are right though and the 1' storm happens this year....I dont think anyone would complain. I was more poking you in regards to throwing potential snowfall totals on a system that hasn't even been modeled consistently at all up to this point.

Might as well set the bar sky high for this one....probably our last legit tracker of the season. I'm thinking with a perfectly timed event we could eek out 3' DCA-NYC with 4' lollis. No mixing. Poorly timed event and 0. All or nothing...throwing my hat in, why not?

I saw PSU mention March 1958 and JB is on the March 93 train so we have some epic times ahead apparently.

Really? I dont mean any disrespect but haven't you learned yet? We are a week out, solutions are mixed, and you are dropping 1' amounts? I know you said "IF things come together right" but isnt that the usual caveat with any storm?

As it should. We need a damn near perfectly timed ejection and trajectory of the stj sw in conjunction with confluence hanging in just long enough. What could.go wrong?

More wet flakes mixing here at the moment. Looks like some more snow showers back building. We take.

ICON?

UKMET is just a hair North vs the GFS

Maybe individuals. I dont have access. Using the means and using the lp plots map which there really arent any members that I see worth a damn. Even the accum precip mean is meh for late next week. Eta: with that said I am still not buying what the gfs family is selling and as you know dont believe the suppressed looks at least at this point.

GEFS want no parts of this threat whatsoever. Plants a trof out in the SW then subsequently pumps and locks in a strong SE ridge.

Flakes mixing in here periodically.

If the Euro trends positive I'm all-in.....until 18z suite starts reversing any positive trends across guidance of course.

But WE know how this will play out and suppression wont be the final solution.

CMC isnt bad....I dont hate it

Best 'potential' of the season. Still a week out tho. Maybe....just maybe some Valentines Day love.

GFS is improved but I'm not sure it is handling the NS correctly and is likely up to its antics of overdoing the cold push. Better baby steps so far at 12z. At least @Ji now has the digital snow on some guidance he was begging for last night.

Wasnt me but I echo those sentiments. Im not even invested in this one (yet) and I'm n and w of Philly. Get within 72 hours and maybe.

Well, sounds like drug addiction tbh. But with that said, for many of us chasing a HECS can be comparable on a different level of course. Explains the mood swings here at times. We need a fix....stat!

ICON wont be suppressed. Not sure how amped and how far N or W it will be tho. Eta: trending to last nights UKIE. Suppression isnt going to be the way we fail.

Meh

1995-96 nina. Just saying. During the solar min lag no? Maybe next year a Nina wouldnt respond like a typical nina with the solar lag many have discussed?

Been saying this for a while now. It's like a PC reboot. Sometimes you need a strong event. Even a strong nino might work tbh. But need to reshuffle the deck in the PAC for sure.

Going to turn to severe weather soon. I have a gut feeling we miss out on decent March snows this year. Maybe a fluke rogue system but I see nothing that is hinting at a favorable late season pattern after next week tbh. Weeklies hinted at HL blocking but will probably be too little too late. We dont even have the widespread cold bottled in the HL this year, more like some idolized arctic air focused around the PV and that's it. Many unfrozen bodies of water that are usually solid ice, ssts still AN, etc. I say bring on the thunder, striped bass, and Phillies (and hopefully Flyers playoffs)!!

Next Ice Age is gonna rock!