Ralph Wiggum

Was going to post about the Sat-Sun snow threat anyway but we are sitting at 61F and a Wiggum Rule is in effect, so the weekend has legs. Rule is 60 or higher at KDYL during heart of winter yields some form of snow during the following 5 days. Research increased percentage of this working out since I began the study to a robust 94% success. All guidance save the CMC on board for a few inches Saturday night with the EPS being most aggressive. Potent shortwave swings under us. Fast mover but probably the best potential of the season for many here. The window is likely going to produce!

Bring it! Might as well get it now...seasonal data is hinting drought upcoming.

Is that seasonal snow outlook for the next decade? Cause we both know we wont see this the remainder of the season.

February showers bring March flower and April snows.....or something like that.

Anyone else getting excited for baseball season? @ChescoPaWxman Pitchers and catchers next week. I only wish the Phillies signed another solid starter but we can hope Wheeler and Nola will perform and the Eflins of the world can help carry them. Wasnt impressed with the bullpen moves or lack of either. Offense and fielding looks good on paper but this team still desperately needs pitching the way I see it. 82-80 this year imo Thoughts?

Pitchers and catchers next week. Actually excited for bb to begin.

Well, the GEFS and GEPS increase moisture. We'll see if there is any cold to work with.

More heat?

The window of chances that I alluded to is fast approaching (Feb 6-14). The window is open a crack and not as wide open as once depicted. However, plenty of waves rolling thru and cold air nearby to the N and W. If the boundary can drag south behind one of these waves and another call roll thru without amplifying we could see some chances for frozen. Ops and a few ens are hinting at several different possibilities. So I dont believe we are completely in a lights out shutout pattern. Tho admittedly chances are higher that we fail than score a big event. But we'll see.

Damn dude the reaper may have taken you too soon. Your post could be potentially spot-on. So should we punt Feb and prepare for a March to remember?

Someone here in this sub, I forget who, said that those MJO charts shouldn't be trusted they are biased warm and will continue to correct more amplified and colder in reality. I never heard of such a thing before and certainly dont buy such bunk at this time as all they have done the entire winter is corrected less amped and circled back repeatedly into the warm phases.

Euro weeklies abruptly did a 180 and ended winter for all intents and purposes. The CFS weeklies weren't even that bad and usually they lead the negativity pack.

It's amazing that 3 days ago models were showing one of the strongest neg NAOs I've seen forecast in a long time. Not only did they flip it to a raging +NAO but instead shifted the greatest SD anomalies towards the Gulf of Alaska. I dont ever recall such dramatic 180 flips in such short periods as this year. Worst part is that guidance has trended away from any good looks every time we were teased and never once the opposite ie bad look towards a good look. I dont know if guidance has climo factored in but if so programmers need to oust the outdated climo data and replace with fresh climo data to reboot how forecasting progs are modeled.

I said I will give it till feb 10 before raising the white flag but damn it is going to be a challenge to hang in that long. Every single index is against us. +++AO, ++NAO, -PNA, MJO going into 5-6, se ridge raging. The window is shutting quickly as is the winter. I can see an early spring this year tbh. All signs are leaning against the recent cold and snowy Marches repeating this year. Feb 10 is it for me...if nothing within 7 days at that time I am over and out. Time is running out folks.

Farmers almanac was way off this year. At least you and Joe Bastardi are sharing your ideas hinting irt similarities to the '93 pattern headed later into Feb. We can hope.

Facts. Saudi Arabian deserts are the new Siberia.

Speaking for myself I had definitely thought given the balanced pros and cons back in late Oct and early Nov that at the very least we would end the season near avg even slightly above irt snowfall. That could still happen with a fluke storm or if we stumble into a range in the midst of this dumpster fire where we score on a couple decent events. But admittedly this season is not going as I had expected. There has been virtually ZERO HL blocking. Even the EPO ridge back around the start of met winter was brief. Many are saying the IOD is the culprit, other the PDO, and many claiming the MJO is at fault. All 3 are independently connected so this isnt a surprise that the IO and PO are essentially driving our pattern here downstream. The other factor is the PV developed into one strong gyre that has basically remained anchored in the same spot at times and not wobbling around, splitting, elongating, etc. This is likely a function of how the strat is affecting things, but with this said it hasn't allowed to PV at the trop level to be bullied around so every time a HL ridge tries to nose closer to the PV it just gets knocked down. Who knows what will happen going forward irt blocking. There are still chances over the next 10 day+ as a gradient/boundary pattern gets established partly in response to the SE Ridge showing up. However, unless we can get a piece of the PV to supply some cold and force the boundary under us, we will likely continue to fail here in SE PA. But dont throw in the towel just yet....we are still in prime climo and even in the worst years things can pull together for a surprise. 1983 was a good example of that.

I still cant wrap my head around how guidance can show decent patterns 10 days out but then totally flip on those looks yet if they show a crud pattern 10 days out it almost never flips to the good.

Day 10 of the euro is setting up a MECS with snow already breaking out in SE PA and energy transferring to the coast. We only need cold air just cold enough....dont need temps in the single digits lol.

Temps in the 60s next week leading into the time period of focus. Hmmm.

With sst in the N and E ML Pac shifting and the PDO changing configuration recently, perhaps we can see ridging develop nearer the West Coast this time instead of the N Central Pac. IOD is also helping this as it is dropping closer to neutral and into negative which can help realign some of the key tellies that were grossly displaced 4 weeks ago into a more typical and favorable (hopefully sustained?) look as we enter the 2nd half of winter especially later on in Feb.

It is refreshing to see some individual threats and teases showing up on some ops now during the time frame that I've highlighted. There is growing consensus that the window will be short-lived however with a +NAO gaining legs after the 13th. We'll see how that plays out. There is no guarantee that we score during the favorable window so we better hope and keep fingers crossed as the picture gets muddled irt where we head after this period. 6z GFS shows how we win, 0z CMC shows how we fail. Think we need to see how this weekend pans out before moving on to specific threats 10 days out in such an active pattern. With all that said, the window Feb 6-14 (might shave a couple days off the tail end after some more ens runs if they continue to show transient looks) still looks like the best hemispheric setup we have seen modeled the entire winter. Not sure that is saying much tho.

Still getting some sweet neg NAO looks showing up between Feb 6-14.

It absolutely used to be true. But I read a few months back that this bias had been corrected. Never was sourced so it may have just been conjecture.

Little extreme and probably.wont verify as progged but there is a neg NAO across guidance now with growing support for that feature on the ens means. We can only hope these looks are even somewhat close because they would produce something for us.