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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Fact is we don't really have a single piece of guidance providing a significant snow event for the area. Even the ens members are backing off. If we had support for this on guidance rather than us trying to will a SECS out of a needle in a haystack, I would agree with you. Just doesnt appear to be working out right now. Could change but I would prefer more model support. Did you notice we've all but lost any suppressed looks? That is generally telling. Still time but imo this is setting up as another fail.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks like the UKMET and Euro tbh. Cutter / overamped too soon gonna likely win out.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    18z is a good look as expected actually......for NE. Would it transpire any other way?
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Burst of moderate wet snow right now. Wiggum Rule is alive and well.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    I see what you are saying and tbh I used to think along those lines 30 years ago until I realized the weather is always changing, patterns are always flipping, and records are still being broken. Weather will do what it wants, when it wants. I hope you are right though and the 1' storm happens this year....I dont think anyone would complain. I was more poking you in regards to throwing potential snowfall totals on a system that hasn't even been modeled consistently at all up to this point.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Might as well set the bar sky high for this one....probably our last legit tracker of the season. I'm thinking with a perfectly timed event we could eek out 3' DCA-NYC with 4' lollis. No mixing. Poorly timed event and 0. All or nothing...throwing my hat in, why not?
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    I saw PSU mention March 1958 and JB is on the March 93 train so we have some epic times ahead apparently.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Really? I dont mean any disrespect but haven't you learned yet? We are a week out, solutions are mixed, and you are dropping 1' amounts? I know you said "IF things come together right" but isnt that the usual caveat with any storm?
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    As it should. We need a damn near perfectly timed ejection and trajectory of the stj sw in conjunction with confluence hanging in just long enough. What could.go wrong?
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    More wet flakes mixing here at the moment. Looks like some more snow showers back building. We take.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON?
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    UKMET is just a hair North vs the GFS
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Maybe individuals. I dont have access. Using the means and using the lp plots map which there really arent any members that I see worth a damn. Even the accum precip mean is meh for late next week. Eta: with that said I am still not buying what the gfs family is selling and as you know dont believe the suppressed looks at least at this point.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    GEFS want no parts of this threat whatsoever. Plants a trof out in the SW then subsequently pumps and locks in a strong SE ridge.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Flakes mixing in here periodically.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    If the Euro trends positive I'm all-in.....until 18z suite starts reversing any positive trends across guidance of course.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    But WE know how this will play out and suppression wont be the final solution.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC isnt bad....I dont hate it
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Best 'potential' of the season. Still a week out tho. Maybe....just maybe some Valentines Day love.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS is improved but I'm not sure it is handling the NS correctly and is likely up to its antics of overdoing the cold push. Better baby steps so far at 12z. At least @Ji now has the digital snow on some guidance he was begging for last night.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Wasnt me but I echo those sentiments. Im not even invested in this one (yet) and I'm n and w of Philly. Get within 72 hours and maybe.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Well, sounds like drug addiction tbh. But with that said, for many of us chasing a HECS can be comparable on a different level of course. Explains the mood swings here at times. We need a fix....stat!
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON wont be suppressed. Not sure how amped and how far N or W it will be tho. Eta: trending to last nights UKIE. Suppression isnt going to be the way we fail.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Meh
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    1995-96 nina. Just saying. During the solar min lag no? Maybe next year a Nina wouldnt respond like a typical nina with the solar lag many have discussed?
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