Ralph Wiggum

We all need the Great Valentine's Day Storm so we can celebrate our love of the winter and of one another. Maybe....

We may salvage winter after all!

The mean is still very positive. @C.A.P.E.

Meh, just your ordinary everyday 962mb low pressure off of AC

NAMs are very close are getting some deformation band snows in the NW burbs tomorrow in response to a 974mb low. Very dynamic setup.

Verbatim that is showing waa snows north. Then based on 850s next 24 hours mostly non frozen i95. I know I know....you were showing the trend and yes based on last runs a better overall look. Congrats new england

Euro is going to do Lucy again only to play the role of Dr No in a few days. Dont do it....dont head towards the light. Eta: this would be the 6th or 7th time this season the LR euro and EPS jumps on board a decent look then sh!ts the bed in a few days. Maybe wont this time but my money is on another tease.

Fyp

When is the neg NAO coming?

Sorry to hear this @mappy positive thoughts and vibes coming you and your sister's way. I hope she recovers quickly

Loving the rogue blob over my area in Bucksco lol. I think the NAM is making it personal and playing cruel games at this point.

Haven't seen any % maps for 3" posted today. Must be meh?

I'm going to go out on a limb even though I know we can back into some fluke events in March and even early April....but I am guessing this period you are mentioning will be our last legit window for the season. It is refreshing to see some hints at regime change. But unless we get these looks under 7 days this year, it is all mere fantasy. Fingers crossed.

Cool only 15 days out. Looking forward to it!

Almost every system and wave have trended North this season so this should be a good period for New England I would think.

The boundary is finally to our South. One thing missing tho:

I will upload it when I get the chance and all data has been entered.

And like that POOF on the boundary pushing thru lol.

Horrible. Sat-Sun is a very basic very bread n butter way we almost always score 1-4". Only this year could such a simple setup completely sh!t the bed. Really is incredible if you think about it.

Nothing is guaranteed. Ever.

Trends. Desperate times call for desperate measures:

NAMs have rain turning to wet snow friday as the storm wraps up. Usually doesnt work out but this winter I think many would take white rain at this point.

Any flakes is a win....even a flurry. I didnt discriminate in the study. Larger events generally dont fall into the categorical research. During offseason I may post the graphs I have been working on. The most common event for this study was flurries to 2". Warning events only occurred here 7% of the time with the former mentioned 77%! The other 16% were 2-5" events. I never expect much from the Wiggum Rule tbh but find it intriguing to watch the rubber band snap back and bring winter back even if short-lived. Btw the date range for this to work is quickly fading as Feb 14 is the cutoff for the research I have done.

Historically once we get past VD getting the boundary to stay south of us becomes a tall order, especially with little to no HL blocking and given the background state of this winter.

Did we expect this to be any different than any other event this season? I warned 3 days ago the euro and eps would suck everyone back in then play Dr No and crush hopes.