Ralph Wiggum

Loving the rogue blob over my area in Bucksco lol. I think the NAM is making it personal and playing cruel games at this point.

Haven't seen any % maps for 3" posted today. Must be meh?

I'm going to go out on a limb even though I know we can back into some fluke events in March and even early April....but I am guessing this period you are mentioning will be our last legit window for the season. It is refreshing to see some hints at regime change. But unless we get these looks under 7 days this year, it is all mere fantasy. Fingers crossed.

Cool only 15 days out. Looking forward to it!

Almost every system and wave have trended North this season so this should be a good period for New England I would think.

The boundary is finally to our South. One thing missing tho:

I will upload it when I get the chance and all data has been entered.

And like that POOF on the boundary pushing thru lol.

Horrible. Sat-Sun is a very basic very bread n butter way we almost always score 1-4". Only this year could such a simple setup completely sh!t the bed. Really is incredible if you think about it.

Nothing is guaranteed. Ever.

Trends. Desperate times call for desperate measures:

NAMs have rain turning to wet snow friday as the storm wraps up. Usually doesnt work out but this winter I think many would take white rain at this point.

Any flakes is a win....even a flurry. I didnt discriminate in the study. Larger events generally dont fall into the categorical research. During offseason I may post the graphs I have been working on. The most common event for this study was flurries to 2". Warning events only occurred here 7% of the time with the former mentioned 77%! The other 16% were 2-5" events. I never expect much from the Wiggum Rule tbh but find it intriguing to watch the rubber band snap back and bring winter back even if short-lived. Btw the date range for this to work is quickly fading as Feb 14 is the cutoff for the research I have done.

Historically once we get past VD getting the boundary to stay south of us becomes a tall order, especially with little to no HL blocking and given the background state of this winter.

Did we expect this to be any different than any other event this season? I warned 3 days ago the euro and eps would suck everyone back in then play Dr No and crush hopes.

Jumping over a car topper event LMAO!

It was a research paper, not a book lol.

Ask the regulars here. I did a paper on this a few years ago. It is a real thing and rarely (6%) fails. I see no reason we wont see some flakes at some point over the next 5 days. Whether it amounts to anything is tbd.

Was going to post about the Sat-Sun snow threat anyway but we are sitting at 61F and a Wiggum Rule is in effect, so the weekend has legs. Rule is 60 or higher at KDYL during heart of winter yields some form of snow during the following 5 days. Research increased percentage of this working out since I began the study to a robust 94% success. All guidance save the CMC on board for a few inches Saturday night with the EPS being most aggressive. Potent shortwave swings under us. Fast mover but probably the best potential of the season for many here. The window is likely going to produce!

Are we talking about Bob's banana high still or the lp?

Little punctuation change and wow, plot twist.

Fringed

Seriously, watching the pbp and the posts leading up to sat-sun you would think we are tracking a MECS lol.

The farms in my area have been laying manure and prepping for the spring for a few weeks now. Talk about stinks!

ICON is much better at 500mb for the weekend.