Ralph Wiggum

Confluence pulling out at 174. 1032 hp centered over us. 1012mb system is in Tenn Valley pushing into the back of the hp.

Euro is doing what my my thought scenario was a few posts back. Swings a ns wave through, drags the baroclinic zone/boundary into the mid atl, bowling ball vort coming east from the Rockies. Need it to keep moving so it doesn't pump heights ahead too much while moving thru before confluence pulls out of the Northeast. All about timing...lets see where she goes Eta: the kicker moving into the West Coast should keep our potential system moving. Not a bad look at all thru this panel

Fresh total is 40.5" for the season.

I think the NS is going to press thru as has been routine during a nina with a lead wave Tuesday pm or wed dragging the baroclinic zone to the South for the overunning followup wave to track along. As we've seen, the baro front hasn't pressed as south as guidance had been showing at range. Im probably completely off base and I'm sure the look/setup will change. But I can see the front dragging thru the mid atl then then overunning pushing way N fighting the SER flex. It has my attention, but im not overly thrilled just yet.

Next week has a solid evolution. Im worried these looks aren't quite suppressed enough at this range. Willing to bet this turns into an upstate PA/LV bomb

I did it. It was a blast. I have a skating rink in my yard from the rains freezing. The kids are 'skating on it. And yes, very refreshing.

I want to shovel but with freezing drizzle still happening I think I'll wait to avoid the skating rink effect. Either way going to have to do it again in the AM.

Its my m.o., reverse psychology/denial sort of thing.

I was merely playing devil's advocate

For those asking, the batch of precip currently expanding in the Tennessee Valley is our next batch for overnight...at least according to some guidance (matches ICON/RGEM the most). It is a sw embedded in the flow that will ride the boundary and enhance precip from the coastal low sitting off the coast. As other stated, probably enough do drop a c-3". Interestingly the ICON is most aggressive in lingering precip thru the day tomorrow. Maybe we can eek out the higher end of that range. Tally so far is 8.5" here (7.5" snow, 1" sleet). 26F and freezing drizzle attm

The coastal didn't even form yet

Yep. Few more inches maybe. We take.

I was questioning the how much for philly guy. You know who they make fun of wrt to that quote yes?

Para is a long duration Mid Atl MECS+. Here we go again!

12z gfs. Right where we want it. I was praying for a suppressed look at this range. Got it!

Always flips earlier. This was never a question.

Weird but well modeled....the heaviest stuff has been sleet but the moderate to heavy has been snow.

Sleet mixing 70% snow still. 7.5" heavy stuff past 35 mins

Snowfall rates increasing here. 6.5" on the ground, 23F.

Good luck!

Ha ICON snows to early Saturday. Caving to the CRAS. For those not following, the CRAS was the first to show this as an extended frozen event at range and never once wavered. Looks to score a huge win.

Roads are trash including mains. Need more angle.

Cold smoked!

Getting blasted here now heaviest of the day SN+....up to 6" temp ticked down to 21F. Amazing!