Ralph Wiggum

There will be more cold than usual to tap this year. The TPV shows no signs of being bullied around like the past few. However, there is still a neutral AO that has shown some negative tendencies in cooler months. NAO has been in a background negative state since mid Sept and should show some decent HL blocking at times this winter. With enso being in a weak/mod Nina state, and the TPV anchored, polar jet will be fast/progressive and very active. With lower heights forced under HL ridging at times, displacement of the PV into the NE down thru our region will occur. Won't argue we will have AN temps at times, but we should see some episodes of deep surface cad/non-snow frozen types. With that said, if NAO blocking can continue to show negative tendencies this year and force the powerful and active Polar jet to amplify and slide disturbances under us and around the bend, we could see an increased chance for deeper systems compared to average. I do like how we have seen the NAO and had it around most of last winter. Has certainly had an anomalous neg tendency last 12 months. Lets hope it doesn't flip positive, at least not for prolonged periods. Not sure we are going to be celebrating if we don't see the PJ visit the region via NAO ridging. All or nothing pattern this winter. Have suspicion we are going to struggle thru a fast flow for periods and pulling our hair out with stretches of mid/upper 40s to low 50s during parts of the winter with generally tame weather. Then missing out on late developing Miller b's as they crush New England and Nova Scotia. Generally expecting slightly BN snowfall here with an increased chance for a bigger storm. Whoever cashes in if/when blocking appears will do very well, higher chances for a KU event. Will also be interested to see how quickly enso goes into a nino state. Some guidance takes Nina to mod/strong before quickly going neutral and eventually weak Nino. How strong Nina gets when it peaks before crashing with play a huge key in how the season unfolds. I could see this season going quickly AN snow if the -NAO is anywhere near as prevalent was last winter. Im banking on it not being like last winter but appearing every so often as ridging propagates poleward from Scandinavia. We shall see.

You guys are slipping. Happy hour GFS hits are back....and only 10 days away

Dude....too soon. But point noted.

I will tell ya what though....Rjay will be sorry he merged the 2 subs when he is on 24/7 banning and deleting posts because you know a merge would be an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions. Could potentially disrupt the entire site and bring it down as many have been witness to in the past.

This may be the only post you've ever made that I agree with.

Don't tell the Euro. Exactly the opposite. Early fall warmth after next weekend. Model mayhem.

Yes on the backside it appears. The euro is also the strongest and farthest under the region with the disturbance. Good to see things tracking under us with ridging up top. Take that as a positive this early on.

First flakes of the season around the region should fly centered around Nov 16 give or take a day on either side. Powerful cold front passes thru next weekend with a followup wave on its heels passing South of the region with cold air in place. All 3 major global models have it. Temps marginal given the time of year especially in the lower lying areas. Elevation snows a better possibility with wet flakes mixing/white rain possible outside of the higher elevations. Let the tracking begin.

Weenie run on the 12z gfs. Well, relatively speaking for mid November. Cold and mixed precip locked in after the 14th.

Is this the latest the SE portions of this region have gone without a frost? I dont ever remember NOT having a frost before November.

Yet in 8 weeks you guys will probably be venting about the early heating bills. Take the nice weather for what it is.

"Cool" for Halloween is fine. Cold, not so much. This normal to even AN October so far coupled with the same outlook for at least the next 2 weeks bodes well for winter. I have compiled quite a bit of data for the upcoming winter outlook which I will delve into later in the month. Anyone watching the expanse and depth of snow-cover in Siberia and N Mongolia?

Heaviest rain of the event right now. This is impressive for a Gulf of Mexico rotting TC irt effects in this area.

I'm going to say yes. The telltale sign for me are the trees with no leaves remaining on them. Classic ef4 signature.

Wow, take shelter man

I'm 2 blocks up from little Neshaminy and it is well over Bristol Road and encroaching on my home slowly. Never saw it this high since I've lived here.

Thank you for posting. Location?

Bigtime flooding here. Backyard is a swamp, neighbor house taking on water. Bristol road is a river

Summer living like a hermit... counting wooly caterpillar hairs, tracking tradewinds variations, and preparing for a very cold winter as I crochet extra afghan blankets, cut firewood, and skin local Buffalo for warm hide.

See me above post. Spotted it with debris not far West of Ivyland.

Saw a tornado just to my west traveling NE about 15 mins ago. Took shelter in basement. I am in Warminster....Ivyland to be exact. Based on location assuming it went thru Warrington, Hartsville, Jamison area. Definitely debris with it.

RI is a tiny piece of beach front real estate. Takes the right trajectory to get a LF tc there. With that said, anyone know the last time RI had a LF from a tc?

Ridging out ahead of Henri from Bermuda extending towards Maine continues to strengthen as time goes on. Clearly is one of the features keeping the storm from exiting very quickly.