Ralph Wiggum

You're not thinking about cancelling winter are you?

Cold front passes thru on the 6th. Trailing wave slide thru around the 8th. GFS and CMC have a Tennessee Valley wave with CAA via HP N of ME. Euro is less enthused and cuts the wave. In any event, something to watch and quite possibly our last real threat for a while as this is the catalyst note previously for our pattern shift to crud Nina (-PNA/+NAO/++AO). With that said, if I eat crow and the pattern doesn't shift where it would in a typical Nina and the cold keeps coming and the poor tellies are transient, we might actually be in for a better run in Dec than what guidance is currently showing. However, if things change without batting an eye into the old familiar Nina look right on schedule, then we are going to need quite a bit of patience this winter. During Ninas we tend to nickel and dime our way to below avg snowfall with several coating-3" types and some thump to mix garbage. Right now, I dont see why this Nina would be any different, especially given the PDO phase that is locked in.

Been watching the transition storm to the crud pattern Dec 7ish give or take a day. That one has a chance to produce a little something before the pattern deteriorates into +panic/++whining regime thereafter.

Exactly. Wont be a shutout. But is going to require alot of patience.

Imo thats the one to keep an eye on for something. Nina climo says far N and W event or a white to wet changeover type event. It is after this the pattern looks to go to crud. GGEM op doesn't agree with its own ensembles on the system it shows a few days later. And those of us around a while know that in a fast PJ nina regime that LR storm tracking usually doesn't work. Overall longwave pattern and tellies can be looked at farther out but the smaller synoptic events tend to jump up and surprise under 100 hrs.

Yes sir. Those blues and oranges are pretty much all in the opposite spots we would want to see them. GEPS isn't too far off. Maybe we can sneak something out around Dec 6-8 as the pattern flipper to that crud rolls thru, but more than likely and based on Nina climo would favor N and W.

Story of the next 7 days. That PJ is screaming: Then this signal has been showing for longer range into Dec. Fugly:

Only way to possibly slow the screaming PJ is with a SSWE (good luck with that), a robust -AO and/or a West based -NAO. Not sure a +PNA helps much until maybe later in the winter (Feb/Mar). -PDO is going to hurt us significantly. And the EPO would probably deliver a PJ dip in the Plains with a subsequent SER amped up so unless axis is perfectly aligned, that likely isn't going to help much either. With the Nina now forecast to go develop steadily into moderate levels and last thru March, we are looking at a tough stretch.

Not a single flake here

Thinking similar regarding Dec and the greater chances later in winter. In my outlook I noted the strong anchored TPV, the progressive and fast PJ (Nina) and the NAO/AO as our key players this year. Also noted the record PDO which will play a role especially as we move ahead. I was on the fence with BN snowfall and much above (went with BN for my region) because based on what we see right now and historical given a Nina, makes sense to err on the BN side. But what was keeping me on the fence was the hangover neg NAO and AO from last winter and also was a background state this fall. I was thinking if those 2 tellies play nice, we could easily jump into the AN category....it won't take an historic blocking episode. Just periodically work in tandem to push this active PJ under our regions and we are gold. However, we are seeing those favorable tellies fade fast, and I'm not so sure they will be a background state or even show themselves again until after Christmas. Personally, not a huge fan of what I am seeing moving a couple weeks into Dec but this was also expected to a degree. Eta: we probably won't 'torch' this year with +20 AN temps for stretches, but most of us will likely be pulling our hair out for periods and grow tired as the flow is fast and mid 40s to low 50s become common with the bulk of wintry weather farther N. We will get our shots, but this is probably going to require patience to the nth degree this winter.

GEPS is suggesting the same. TPV is anchored, NAO going positive, AO positive, and PNA going negative. The PJ is just ripping. So as usual Nina fashion, which will continue to build into Dec, Southern features will get shredded and PJ clippers will continue to our North. Wont take much from the AO/EPO to nudge the PJ underneath us at times, but the overall theme early is going to be close calls. Mid 40s to low 50s general theme, ie seasonal.

Don't look at the GEFS....first half Dec may be off the table too. Thinking a painfully slow start this year then we get chances in early/mid Jan.

Happy Thanksgiving folks!

January 4

Isn't the MJO the thing that teased us all winter long back in 2019-20? And wreaked havoc with LR forecasts?

Radio show?

If anything, the ensembles means all are signaling a pattern flip after the first couple days of Dec. Of course they could be wrong, but they are in strong agreement with an Aleutian HP/central PAC blob and flooding the country with a PAC firehose. NAO is forecast to go strong positive and the PNA slight negative. As Newman noted, the PDO is not going to play nicely this year it appears and that favors the pattern flip I mentioned as we go forward into December (BN out west, AN temps East). We are going to struggle to get much snow before 2022 imho. Not being a Deb, but all signs are starting to come together in a not-so-favorable way at least early-on. Those regional outlooks suggesting an early and often start might be in trouble. Need that NAO to save us at some point as we trek into the deeper winter months, but the TPV on steroids is going to have something to say about that.

These are essentially a blend of the thoughts I posted a week or 2 ago. Below avg snowfall, slow start, TPV anchored over the N Pole, and variability. We are going to get bored with mid/upper 40s to low 50s for stretches then get a few of those days where we struggle to get out of the teens. I do think our cold spells come via blocking not necessarily related to any SSWE. A bigger storm (deeper cyclone) threat is more likely this winter based on several factors, one of which is Nina potentially staying weak/mod but quickly moving to neutral or even weak Nino by late winter. Slow start, moderate middle, higher variability late.

Stink bugs and cucumber beetles/weevils still all over my jawn

No CPF available. If we are to cash in during a Nina year, we are going to rely on HL blocking in the AO/NAO regions. An EPO ridge on steroids will help too. But there is zero semblance of any SER either....and while this is OK for keeping unseasonable warmth at bay, it will also allow for systems to slide/shred. Another thing I've noticed so far early, the trof axis when we do get mid lat cyclones has been displaced to the east....another function of a Nina progressive pattern. I actually think my region is the screw zone this year and think parts of THIS region will fare a good deal better.

One background state I've noticed for several weeks is the beat down/lack of any SER. One would think thats a better sign than a full lat pig SE ridge that we are fighting early in the season. Lets see when the Midwest starts accumulating snow. Thats a good indicator for us as the pattern steps down.

It's rarely the epic blocking patterns that give us the widespread memorable events. More often than not it is just as the pattern is developing but more likely as it relaxes and breaks down.

Was Ji pleased with that event?

GEFS/EPS do exactly what I spoke about a few days ago wrt Scandinavian ridging propagating into the Greenland region and developing a -NAO. 1st, we need this to not just be some day 8+ fantasy. 2nd, we need to see this become a repetitive background state this winter at least showing up periodically. With the pig TPV still strengthening and anchored over the N Pole and a raging PJ ripping underneath we are going to need NAO blocking this winter to avoid a dud imho. Not saying we can't cash in without it, but as I said the NAO is going to be the biggest key to things this winter. Without it we are going to need alot of PNA/AO help. Good look on guidance post Thanksgiving....thats about all we can hope for at this point.

If we get NAO blocking to counter the progressive PJ around the strong TPV then yes, bad winter incoming. If the NAO doesn't cooperate we are going to need alot of help. Good thing is the NAO has been in the negative generally since Sept....so the tendencies are there. But at some point it is bound to fold, and with the strength of the TPV and depth, that could pose some serious issues/concerns irt winter wx in SEPA.