Ralph Wiggum

Its funny because like 1 panel after this the East is torching. Of course we don't even know exactly how this will evolve but this could be one of those years where we sneak in a snowstorm then the following day it's in the low 50s.

Decent burst of snow here about 2 hours ago. Was out with my kids picking out a Christmas Tree and the skies opened up. Pretty cool. Anyone else notice trees are pushing $100 this year? Gone are the days of $30 Douglas Firs.

Must admit, the GFS nailed the temps kissing 70 this Saturday like 10+ days ago (preliminary kudos to gfs as there isn't much that should keep us out of the upper 60s at this point Saturday). I made a post in here on that. The comical thing is, if it were single digits forecast for highs, we would verify near 40.

We take

Goose accums?

The PDO you referenced is the real killer for the next 10 days imho, moreso than the enso right now. Once the h5 blob sets in over the Aleutians via the near record PDO profile recently, it is going to be tough to dislodge. We can hope it noses into the EPO region perhaps, but we will need help on the Atlantic side given the overall look in the Pacific. And I agree with PSU re the MJO. I would never say it sucks and will continue to suck and will never improve without facts. That certainly wasn't my point. Psu eloquently reinforced what I was basically trying to state... sometime you need to be careful what you wish for. Things will improve. It isnt a shutout pattern by any means, especially given it isnt even Dec 10 yet. We will get plenty of chances. And yes, the start in phase 6 is better than 3....but where it heads is still anyones guess. Moving ahead on the ens means, I do certainly like the look where we may be headed by Christmas week....epo ridging, weakening SE ridge, scan ridge propagating towards part of Greenland. Just gotta be patient.....and lord knows we do this well around here.

I take you back to winter 2020 when the amplitude was literally off the chart. Forecasts showed it moving along weaker into the next favorable phase but instead went right into the COD completely bypassing the forecast and traversed almost 180 into a warm regime. It was that particular situation that made me realize just how much of a dartboard that product truly still is.

Never trust the MJO....at least not until more research and upgrades have been funded for improvements. People hung their hats on this as our saving grace 2 of the last 3 winters and the phases that were forecast never materialized.

Whitpain in Montco brined

I said it a month ago, saying it again. We r going to be tired of low 40s to low 50s and partly sunny by January. Like u said, not a firehose of PAC air and probably not 70s, but boring AN temp weather the theme for long stretches this winter.

That minor threat went South quickly eh? Hope this isn't a precursor pattern to this winter. Remember when the GFS was so amped it cut thru western PA? Trended to a sheared fast moving flat wave. Thought that made more sense than amped up but didn't think we would see nada out of it. Holding out hope for a couple mood flakes anyway.

My bar is set at a trace. Just want to get on the board.

12 GFS mirrors the NAM....general T-2" event. Hopefully it holds....would be nice to break the ice with a grass whitener.

12z nam everyone sees flakes. T-2"

Still not completely sold on the Wednesday system. Some flakes should fly and maybe some light measurable snow for parts of the region, but clearly a fast moving wave developing well offshore and too late. Classic Nina. Also classic in that these zipping waves can be tough to nail down until mesos are in 36hr or less range. As noted ad nauseum, this is the catalyst for an overall pattern change to more evident ridging in the SE with subsequent troffing in the West into the Rockies. HP settles into the Aleutians and appears to become a staying feature for the foreseeable future. But this isn't the be all-end all to this winter. According to the LR ensemble means, as things progress towards the weeks of Christmas and NY, the big blob ridge in the Aleutian chain will try and extend into the EPO region and establish a quasi CPF with a significant change to the cold air source into N America and the US. May take a little longer for this to translate over into our region. Also seeing less LP anchored over the NAO region with more ridging evident in Scandinavia which traditionally is an origin source for an eventual shift to a -NAO. But alas, this is a way out there and mere speculation beyond the ens means at range. So some flakes in the air Wednesday, maybe some light accums in spots (t-2"?). Moderating weather as the pattern shifts with a stretch of some AN temps. Then maybe some improvements overall later in the month as CPF attempts to change our cold air source while ridging in the SE remains. Could setup a decent battleground between the PJ and the SER with hints at potentially some HL blocking by the week of Christmas towards the very end of the month.

Welcome to the Philly forum where no one likes us and we don't care!

NAVGEM came N and was a decent early Dec hit for SE PA

Follow the trend. Go back 7 or 8 runs and follow the trend. Stubborn yet classic GFS late to pick up the fast Nina flow. Like the old Euro...it doesn't seen to make massive moves run to run but the Euro and GFS have reversed places the past 2 or 3 years. More upgrades? Eta: I'm not discounting measurable snowfall. Been suggesting for a while there will be some. Im just having a tough time wrapping my head around a 6"+ model where the pattern doesn't support it. Said in my outlook and sticking to it...c-3" events will be the norm this year.

You're in trouble if you are using 2 runs of 6"+ from the GFS as a baseline for snow totals. GFS was always the most amped with this system and has been stubborn and slow to trend towards other guidance. I felt the other day the CMC had the right idea leading the way with the squashed/sheared look especially given the progressive Nina flow. Still hoping the N and W folks can cash in on some measurable but im beginning to think that may be a challenge given the lack of any SER or real amplification in the flow.

Should fit the Nina norm of either sheared and suppressed....colder. Or slightly amped wave coming Norther and N and W areas seeing measurable. Still leaning towards N and W seeing the accums this time. Then we take a break, and hope the pattern resolves itself by the Christmas and NY holiday week(s).

ICON came in flatter and subsequently colder with less of an ocean influence. In line with 12z CMC. This is the direction we want to head....without it of course shearing out too much and becoming a nothing burger like happened last Nina episode repeatedly.

CMC may have the best idea in that it is the most progressive solution. Ukie digs the energy and bombs out off the VA Capes. Given the progressive nature of the pattern we have seen, I doubt this will be much different than other recent systems but maybe the N and W can cash in with some measurable snow.

This seems pretty realistic given nina climo tbh. Something to watch down along 95 anyway. I was down the shore yesterday, and the winds coming off the ocean were very warm for this time of year. Im going to say let's hope for a weaker system or wave that slides under us with this threat. Dont want much easterly wind component right now in a marginal situation.

Didn't see euro. Saw the gfs is still stubborn....but the ICON and CMC say game on. That's the system I was chirping about possibly doing something as that sysyem is the catalyst for the pattern change the ensembles have been show for after the 9th. So yes, I'm on board for a trackable event Dec 8/9 before things deteriorate for a period. Hoping we can get a minor event out of it at least. What does the euro show anyway?

LR guidance definitely firm Nina look. Kissing 70 degrees in SEPA on the GFS this run. Shutout stretch incoming, hopefully it can remain transient. On a somewhat related note, TWC showed this the latest in any year they didn't have a named winter storm by now. Reflection of where we are at so far. Not good.