Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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NAMs just took a big old dump in my Wheaties for Friday AM.
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Maybe. Weak split out west with some waves undercutting the pna ridge. When you pump the PNA like that with a CPF extension the cold will be there in the East. A well-timed phase would work. But I wouldn't kick a clipper out of the sack either.
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Decent potential coming up. Like seeing this on the CFS weeklies:
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Exactly, and ens mean look good. GEFS is actually better. Tho yeah 6z/12z ops went to wrong way.
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17th has been showing potential for a while now....sticks out like a sore thumb. Lets do it! First things first, Friday system looks great on the ens:
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Been watching this period for a few days now. The ens have been popping a system underneath us during this period for several days now. Best mapped lr ens potential in a while. What do they say? The big ones get sniffed out early?
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All models (except NAM tracks inland with rain SEPA) are snow in SE PA. Legit trackable event. Clearly a Miller B with lp redeveloping off of the DelMarVa and tracking ENE. Definitely not a Southern slider. Fast moving system will keep accums in-check. Doubtful anyone in our region sees totals like S NJ from yesterday. Im all-in.
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That is not the look of a southern slider. That is a coastal signature from the hills of NE Tennessee to Nova Scotia sir.
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Haven't even seen the precip maps, but the 850 low looks great. What a solid run for this potential.
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Not with the surface wind vectors NNE as shown. Perfect spot and wind trajectory on that map. Speaking verbatim on the euro, not my call, but that look likely wouldn't be an issue 95 n and w. Eta: 850 winds r actually NW.
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Euro clobbers on friday:
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Friday looks good on the GEPS:
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Parents in N Cape May reporting gale winds, blowing snow....estimated 10" so far as per their obs.
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Heavy snow in N Cape May
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Don't sell yourself short on those "shitty snow maps".
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It is kind of funny if you look at the NAM to see DC and Baltimore crushed but Philly on a fringe, NYC on a fringe, and Boston on the fringe. This one is yours. Enjoy!!
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Thinking my parents in North Cape May might need a visit tonight and tomorrow
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HRDERRPS ticked NW
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I know nowcast time and all that, but the rgem crept nw thru the first part of the run. Looks good
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Not really model chaos at all tbh. NAM blows, didn't even have a storm til this AM. Euro also didn't bite until last evening. Those 2 aren't the powerhouse guidance they once were prior to 'upgrades'. Follow the GFS which has led the way.
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Won't take much of a wobble either way tbh. It is going to be difficult looking over the river and know "the shore" is getting over a foot and we have mood flakes N and W.
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Jan 1987. Have it all on vhs lol
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N fringe is going to struggle. Massive CAA push coupled with dry air and a tightening ULL is going to lead to a sharp cutoff near the DE River with ragged light precip N and W.
