There are already some signals that the good pattern on the 16th rolls over on itself by the 20th and things deteriorate. Hopefully just a hiccup on the weeklies. Im in for the 17th give or take a day for the PNA spike and possible system. Pattern either holds on or flips after this. Fingers are crossed.
Maybe. Weak split out west with some waves undercutting the pna ridge. When you pump the PNA like that with a CPF extension the cold will be there in the East. A well-timed phase would work. But I wouldn't kick a clipper out of the sack either.
Been watching this period for a few days now. The ens have been popping a system underneath us during this period for several days now. Best mapped lr ens potential in a while. What do they say? The big ones get sniffed out early?
All models (except NAM tracks inland with rain SEPA) are snow in SE PA. Legit trackable event. Clearly a Miller B with lp redeveloping off of the DelMarVa and tracking ENE. Definitely not a Southern slider. Fast moving system will keep accums in-check. Doubtful anyone in our region sees totals like S NJ from yesterday. Im all-in.
Not with the surface wind vectors NNE as shown. Perfect spot and wind trajectory on that map. Speaking verbatim on the euro, not my call, but that look likely wouldn't be an issue 95 n and w.
Eta: 850 winds r actually NW.
It is kind of funny if you look at the NAM to see DC and Baltimore crushed but Philly on a fringe, NYC on a fringe, and Boston on the fringe. This one is yours. Enjoy!!
Not really model chaos at all tbh. NAM blows, didn't even have a storm til this AM. Euro also didn't bite until last evening. Those 2 aren't the powerhouse guidance they once were prior to 'upgrades'. Follow the GFS which has led the way.
Won't take much of a wobble either way tbh. It is going to be difficult looking over the river and know "the shore" is getting over a foot and we have mood flakes N and W.