Ralph Wiggum

Funny because speaking with someone earlier, they were "impressed that the weather people nailed this 5 days out". Mind you, this is someone who only watches the news. Well, they do say the big ones are sniffed out early, so there's that.

Changes at the surface as the tick S and E is on. The low wants to be East as you can see in the bagginess. GFS did this yesterday and keeps adjusting that zone East. Track went from Greenville to Philly when the op was showing it going Greenville to Harrisburg. Then it made an adjustment. GFS 12Z looks like it wants to do this again today with notable weakness East of Henlopen. You can even see a closed surface circulation here from 12z: At 6z this weakness was carving a route thru New Castle:

The 850 low has been looking progressively better which can be good to look at if this may occluded and stack. Get this to trend under us and boom: This system has large amounts of moisture both Gulf and Atlantic. Someone is going to get walloped.

LR ens still look active and cold to end the month. Stj still in play coming out of a split flow on the West Coast. Not a progressive nor warm look:

Miller A look...rides the eastern portion of the Gulf Coast, cross N Fl and re-emerge just off Savannah. We have all been praying for a Miller A for a while, maybe this will develop into the one. There has been luck recently and the WDI is off the charts.

Thats what some guidance was showing as the Midwest sw dives into the trof to energize the system. But will that energy do a Jan 25, 2000 like you and guidance alluded to? Or will it dive in an energize the developing system? Or will it act more as a kicker to nudge it east? Maybe even a blend.

Looks like it has wiggle room to bump east some more on future runs given the weakness and lean to the east of the slp mean center

Do the GEFS get the additional recon flight data like the GFS has been receiving?

Nah, I havent even had coffee yet. Kids are off on a school ski club trip. Distractions are lessened. But ty for noticing. The GFS op took that track (right over or just east of.phl) that you and I both laid out last night on where we thought the surface weaknesses should have been tracking this yesterday, so the nudge finally appeared. Interesting.

Improvements on the ICON track fwiw. GEFS look amazing....textbook. Lost all the western members. BIG changes coming with today's runs. Buckle up:

GEFS lost all of the Western members at 6z. The mean slp is perfect. If I didnt see the op continually run this thing thru Harrisburg PA I would think the GEFS was honking a MECS from DC-BOS. This is good......real good:

Truth you speak....luck we will need.

Bunch of 980s east probably skewing it?

Around 84-96 hours the ens begin to not be as useful and we begin looking at the lr mesos.

No cap

I know the GEFS aren't made for thermals per se, but fwiw the mean does keep the surface at or below 32 the duration in DC.

He isnt using March 93?

Thats a really classic looking jet structure. :

Looks like the buck west stopped at least with the 18z suite. The GEFS are drool worthy for some in the subforum: Definite lean to the se with the ull.

Yep, cluster off coast, cluster inside.

There have to be some members that follow the weakness though, from Greenville up over Philly looks like where it probably wanted to end up. Dynamics as it stacks likely cause interference of convective nature out closer to where the surface low ended up this run.

Probably wiser to pay more attention to the 500mb changes at this range and not so much r/s lines and amounts just yet. We saw some positive things all around at 18z. Now we rest up for Dr No in a couple hours.

The key this run and 18z is weaker less organized sw that gains more longitude before getting tugged N. Not concerned with where the surface low ends up....im not sure that is correct. Eta: willing to bet 0z the surface corrects itself with a move E

Ends up a tick farther W. Thats unpossible