Ralph Wiggum

Improvements on the ICON track fwiw. GEFS look amazing....textbook. Lost all the western members. BIG changes coming with today's runs. Buckle up:

GEFS lost all of the Western members at 6z. The mean slp is perfect. If I didnt see the op continually run this thing thru Harrisburg PA I would think the GEFS was honking a MECS from DC-BOS. This is good......real good:

Truth you speak....luck we will need.

Bunch of 980s east probably skewing it?

Around 84-96 hours the ens begin to not be as useful and we begin looking at the lr mesos.

No cap

I know the GEFS aren't made for thermals per se, but fwiw the mean does keep the surface at or below 32 the duration in DC.

He isnt using March 93?

Thats a really classic looking jet structure. :

Looks like the buck west stopped at least with the 18z suite. The GEFS are drool worthy for some in the subforum: Definite lean to the se with the ull.

Yep, cluster off coast, cluster inside.

There have to be some members that follow the weakness though, from Greenville up over Philly looks like where it probably wanted to end up. Dynamics as it stacks likely cause interference of convective nature out closer to where the surface low ended up this run.

Probably wiser to pay more attention to the 500mb changes at this range and not so much r/s lines and amounts just yet. We saw some positive things all around at 18z. Now we rest up for Dr No in a couple hours.

The key this run and 18z is weaker less organized sw that gains more longitude before getting tugged N. Not concerned with where the surface low ends up....im not sure that is correct. Eta: willing to bet 0z the surface corrects itself with a move E

Ends up a tick farther W. Thats unpossible

U r correct

Liking the looks of that sprawled out 'banana high'.

Go GooFuS! Not closed off thru 66 this time. Less organized/consolidated. Better look. All we can ask for right now. Just cease that farther W movement each run.

See my post above....I think if we can delay the closed low and and phasing that only improves our chances for the sw to track east of the fall line.

Looks ICON ish wrt how it wants to link a bit of the energy in the plains with the stj energy. Not sure honestly what it would mean. Less of a closed low for longer would be better, so I guess there are some positives just glancing at where it may head after.

NAM at 78 but has a weaker sw and more of a connection to the stj and energy sitting off the southwest coast.

I think the thump will be fine. I do agree that the flip is looking more likely now. Seeing those SE low level winds roaring at tropical storm force wont help those east of the fall line. Again tho, get the sw to phase a little later to allow the low to traverse more longitude before running NNE would be huge in terms of precip types and changeover.

Which is it? Optimistic or pessimistic? Sounds like you should practice what you preach. Please: 1) quit trolling the forum and 2) post less, read more. Thank you. And yes, it IS the most likely outcome attm. Almost every red tagger has acknowledged this. Almost every piece of guidance is suggesting this right now. Could it shift? Absolutely. Dependent of wavelength separation, strength of the vort, confluence strength and duration, etc. I agree with that. But seeing this setup several times over the past 25 years of being active in the hobby, this is not a classic clean transfer coastal look NOR a clean Miller A....areas not the way it stands right now on guidance. So I really don't think odds favor an all snow event here attm. I will stick by my thoughts of this being the most likely outcome for now....thump to mix then maybe slot. Hopefully that is optimistic enough for ya. Any snow is good snow I could care less if it taints or flips. Eta: I would love to discuss offline and spare the members your grief, but your inbox is full, might want to look into that

Do u have the 925mb panel by any chance?