Ralph Wiggum

JMA is a mauling fwiw. Damn near perfect track. JV models ftw!

Funny, we were told yesterday to ignore the JMA and ICON because they aren't in the same league as the other globals. Yet these 2 models show possibly the best outcomes of the bunch (location dependent). With that said, I am taking these and hugging the ever living p!ss out of them for now. Thank you.

Classic thump to mix/dryslot for i95 at the very least. Most likely outcome attm.

I'll take the 988mb off Fenwick Island ftmfw Alex, ty

I'm not so sure. One thing most guidance is really hearing on is the deep and strong 925mb SE ripping flow. I suppose a cleaner transfer, weaker sw, and track of the sw under us rather than over the big cities could help keep flow vectors with less of a SE component, but that ll jet is sticking out like a sore thumb. Let's nudge that weaker sw under us and take our chances.

I guess. Just don't see how this screams clean hit. Almost zero guidance supporting this so that statement is not unrealistic. Likely a thumpage to mix/slot then backend flakeage as the ull pulls thru. Pretty classic look for that tbh.

So since things are going the wrong way for the Sunday/Monday system, are we still lined up to have a relentless parade of threats in a favorable pattern the 2nd half of January? Or are those looks fizzling out as well? Ens means look ok to me and the split out west and stj look active, but it has been silent here and want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting the progs.

One thing has become clear with this system....it will not be a flush clean hit for the big cities along i95....that much I think we can say with certainty at this point.

Ugly. Almost ever low is onshore now.

There is no way the GEFS doesn't start moving the other direction now. I would be very surprised if they didn't move W but we'll see.

Crapped the bed at 90

Better look. This is headed the right way.

Strongly agree. Almost Miller A looking way down there in TX with the LP.

Like Roger Smith just stated a few posts above....pretty much ignore the ICON (and JMA).

I see some posts people talking about red flags. Here's your red flag... when the NAVGEM is by itself and east, something is up. Just my $.02......I've seen this before.

Ocean storm still finds a way to screw.

Disagree. Resembles Jan 25, 2000. Snow to sleet, dry slot, wraparound snows. Can see something similar here.

6z gefs are head scratching. The Friday system on the means is closer than the Monday system. You would think compared to the ops that the days got reversed on the GEFS. GEFS want little to nothing to do with Monday:

Myself and the GFS are still bullish on that period centered around the 17th fwiw:

This Friday....shades of Jan 25, 2000

Friday there will be the big ocean storm moving into the Canadian maritime over the weekend. From there, we will basically see a 'threat' every other day until the pattern relaxes. And what i mean by that is there are many chaotic shortwaves moving thru the flow. The cool part is, the PJ and the STJ both look active.

I was thinking about that earlier. I feel like highs in the low 20s was a common thing....a few decades back.

Define whining please

We're in trouble aren't we? Just cut to the chase doc, and level with me.

Well, I still like the period centered around the 17th give or take a day. However, I will say it til I'm blue, this coming pattern is going to require a high amount of patience. Signs are that suppression will be an issue with the PV nosing down from Baffin Bay. We can score over the next 2 weeks, but more likely we will wait until the pattern relaxes. It is almost always like this. Pattern looks good, posters begin stating how we will enter a no-fail period, pattern turns out uneventful, guards lower, pattern begins to relax, SECS/MECS happens....not always, but more often than not.