Ralph Wiggum

We do disaster pretty well wrt tracking winter storms, so there's that.

Control was east. But the control has been jumpy asf. The ens mean is better N and W crew.

Looks like a blend of the gfs and euro will likely be closest to reality for the weekend. Doubt the euro bomb MECS+ scenario is the final outcome and I also doubt the GFS ots is going to happen given amplification in the flow. Tbh the CMC is probably the closest to what will happen based on phasing, location, sw ejection, and ridging over top of the ull. Probably a stripe of heavier snows much like the early Jan system that affected DE and S NJ and left most of PA high and dry. Hopefully we can bring it farther N and W but im not feeling it. Starting to see some slight hints on the last 2 euro runs of ticks towards other guidance. 12z will be telling.

Lol im just going by what you all are posting. Plus all the euro sensors got swallowed up by tonga Someone said the Europeans were struggling getting data because there was a shortage of weather balloons due to Covid. Can anyone confirm?

Didn't fall apart, just a hair slower to develop and come N. But that could be the difference on how far N the shield gets. I think this sub is in a great spot tbh.

Not as diggy with the sw. Looks like there were some changes to me.

There was something posted yesterday saying the Tonga volcano screwed up some sensors the Euro uses for initialization data and they were unsure when those would be back online. Could this be the reason the Euro is on an island with this?

GFS is still confused.

How the times sure have changed. Wrt the weekend potential, if this were 10 years ago we all would be drooling. Euro op and ens screaming MECS+, CMC just to the SE, and the GFS with a big jump this run now also with the low pressure just too far to the SE. All this 5 days out. We would have been saying this is right where we want it knowing the old N trend with these SS systems 5 days out. Ahh, the good old days.

GFS looks like a wave thurs, a wave Saturday, and a wave Sunday followed by a clipper Monday. Models undecided on which, if any, phase and amplify.

Don't want to meet in the middle Agreed. If euro is king it needs to hold at 0z.

Biggest 0z GFS run since 2020 coming in a bit over 2 hours. Buckle up....and good luck everyone.

We just can't know

Euro has consistently been too fast to eject energy out of the Southwest since it had an upgrade a few years ago. This is something several of us have been nothing wrt how it has performed post-upgrade. Not saying it is wrong, but since it has little support amongst guidance, you have to take it with a grain of salt. The euro also has struggled in the past wrt the pj during Nina years. Methinks the Euro just isn't having a good run this season. Now if the GFS jump on board, then I might come off the sidelines. Until then people should keep their expectations in check. Of course if you pop into a different subforum you will probably be told how great the euro has been and that the eps agree so la la lock it in. Not so fast on that.

I find recently since the 'upgrade' that now the Euro is too fast at times to bump the energy out of the southwest. Hopefully it is sniffing something besides glue.

Until the gfs honks im on the sidelines. Proof is in the pudding the GFS op is red hot.

What's a Clipper ?

Yes sets the stage for the weekend. We don't want a huge push Thursday moving the baro zone too far s. Hope for a miss thurs imho....sacrificial lamb

Looks like a white rain situation with cold chasing precip. May see flakes falling but at least right now looks like nbd

The control is a very low resolution from what I recall: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/medium-range-forecasts

GFS is the old Euro from 5 years ago. CMC is the old GFS with a fantasy storm every run that usually doesn't materialize Euro is the old GFS and plays catchup to the others. Don't ask how we got here, but here we are in 2022.

You aren't wrong. GFS has been taking the euro/eps to the cleaners this month.

And the euro control on top of that.

I know you already know this but the control run should never really be used as guidance. It is used for perturbation in the individual ens members.

-SN here 35F