Jump to content

Ralph Wiggum

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,198

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Sleet accums still count towards snowfall totals, but im sure you are already aware of that.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    GEFS strongly support the op. May be even slightly better for frozen. I will be honest. I cant remember a rain to fzra to sleet ending as snow before. Im sure it has happened several times. I just can't recall it.....probably because it just isn't a very common situation. Someone mentioned 1994. Interesting.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS continues to show better CAA and a long duration gradient wave event with the low tracking under the region. Was expecting the GFS to cave to other global guidance by now: Eta: alot of that in SE PA is sleet
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    18z gfs more snow less icy. We take.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro made a big move to the GFS. Has sleet. Key is it made a move towards the King.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Yeah, I dont think most of us here actually believe the GFS. It was just concerning to see it double down the way it did.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    6 Look at that banana high!! Pressing too
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    I been saying that plus a banana high over NY State. Legit threat.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    King GFS leading the way for the late week mix blaster. 12z even better....check it out
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Taking the positive weenie approach with this suite and telling myself "it will continue to trend more favorable now that the energy is getting properly sampled"....
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Legend has it dial-up was painstakingly slow at the time and they needed to utilize Paul Revere to hand deliver the Ukie maps. Is it true that "The British are Coming" was actually code for "The Ukie is honking"?
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Totally
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Ditto. ICON, Euro, and GFS have been off and on with this one. Going to depend on how the gradient plays out and how much energy ejects out of the West, if it is consolidated or sheared, NS CAA push, and timing of said boundaries/waves. But that's like every system...always dependent on the preceding system.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    But didn't the Ukie nail that one storm way back in 1782?
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Heavy rain changing to ice...because that scenario always pans out. But it is King GFS so yeah. Seriously tho....it would be funny now that the Ukie and others lost it if the GFS somehow leads the way with this one.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    6z GFS pressed the wave South for this week then has the late weekend system as well then has like 2 or 3 other frozen events this run. Here are Thurs-Fri totals fwiw. Low confidence in this one happening but posting it for discussion:
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Bet ya can't spot the gradient/boundary:
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Timing diffs, not a huge surprise at range. Looks like we have a very brief 'relax'/gradient pattern thru Thurs-Friday then we go right back into an active/trackable pattern. Works for me....reload it.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Noted. Thanks for the pbp Randy
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Uh oh we don't want a full phase in the West
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    I dont agree with how the Ukie is combining the 2 waves into one solid frozen event, so color me skeptical. 2 separate waves would work though as I've been alluding to if we sacrifice the Thursday-Friday system and the trailing energy moves thru Saturday-Sunday with smaller bandwidth between the systems.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    I know, NAM at 84....but also has the trailing wave out in New Mexico much like other guidance that moves it thru next weekend with wintry precip. So looks like warm sector midweek. Then cold front passage with rain Thursday ish. Then we look to the weekend with fresh cold air source in place and disturbances moving thru. The pattern 'relax' looks extremely short-lived.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Dont sleep on the late week threat. Euro is a frozen mixed mess and the Ukie is a SECS/MECS.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    18z gefs took a step back for the late week slop. But hangs a piece of stj energy back and moves that thru late in the weekend. That could work if the first system fails Thurs/Fri with the shorter wavelength now being depicted between systems. 18z gfs was a nice active look from start to finish.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    While I completely agree about being gradient driven, we have gone in 2 days from a complete cutter up thru the Great Lakes to a decent wave tracking thru PA, to now a wave tracking under us. Definitely wouldn't call it flooding rains at this point. Heck if the trend co tines it could be squashed down in VA and NC. Just something to watch for now but seeing those moves over the last couple days one has to wonder if this is going to have some tricks up the sleeve.
×
×
  • Create New...