Ralph Wiggum

As much as I'd love to keep the current pattern which already has overachieved twice, I'm also a gambler and would cash in this current producing pattern to spin the wheel at a KU event even if it means that's it for the rest of winter. Different strokes for different folks I guess.

Different pattern. This 'transition has done us well. But there are no guarantees in the LR. Personally I think I would have rolled the dice with the certainty and kept the pattern. Hoping the big change pans out mid month and does everyone well in the snow dept.

Nice fish storm there.

Pattern ahead Jan 14-28 certainly looks favorable for large storm development....somewhere. The only 2 cons I see looking ahead are 1) we've all been headfaked in years past with epic pattern looks that end up verifying for 12 hours then revert back to the sos. And 2) as has been the case much of Nov and Dec, the mean trof in the East (when it has had the opportunity to dig) has been on an axis just too far to the east. A few big fall storms and 2 Dec storms we missed out on because they were too far off the coast. Not suggesting this hasn't or won't change. Just haven't spent a ton of time salivating over the looks but rather cherry picking what could yield failure. In my older years I've found it wiser to ask what could go wrong or why won't this work as opposed to ens at range as gospel. Though it is nice to see agreement on the cold push. If we get the big cold push, I urge patience as we could be overwhelmed by Siberia and need patience waiting for things to relax before getting the big dog. Now with that said, let's find a way to luck our way into a KU before this month ends.

I think nov-dec 95 were cold Eta: by @chris21

Congrats @KamuSnow (bored and just having some fun)

Bricked up, dang

Looks great! Nice foundation you have going there. Exceeded my expectations and as you said, feels like winter now. The wind cuts right through. Nice January weather....a viking beach day.

You stated before you had over 45 years in this industry also which is impressive. Overachieving ice accrual eh? Great Scott, I think you're on to something! Or on something. Not quite sure which at the moment.

4" here in Warminster. Exceed expectations.

I think we just got NAM'd:

Plenty of time but that is a signal on a 10 day eps mean

Honky tonk:

DT is going to ALEET:

EPS are a much better look and nothing like the op in the LR. Trof digs in the Gulf states rather than -PNA out west.

Here's that period honking again centered around the 17th give or take a day. This has been a consistent signal for about a week already and moving up in time. No can-kicking this one:

The snow(less) middle finger. Someone always falls under it in these situations where a weak low jumps off the coast and you fall in a subsidence zone between the weak primary as it jumps off the coast. Sucks to be in the bullseye of it but it is what it is. Not the greatest start to 12z for extreme SE PA:

How is the ALEET ALEET super blockbuster fooking WOOF WOOF event looking for the 16th? We still locked in?

Ditto. Just want to get on the board tonight. Anything over say an inch accumulation is a bonus win up here.

6z GFS ups the ante

Light snow arriving between 9PM and midnight Thursday. Continues overnight, maybe a heavier burst especially S and E of the Delaware River. 1-3" generally across SE PA. Maybe a stripe of 2-5" near the Delaware River across into S NJ.

You'll still find something to complain about come Friday AM

Any time is tough to forecast LR....but Nina it is damn near impossible to be confident past 7 days wrt overall hemispheric longwave patterns let alone synoptics.

There are already some signals that the good pattern on the 16th rolls over on itself by the 20th and things deteriorate. Hopefully just a hiccup on the weeklies. Im in for the 17th give or take a day for the PNA spike and possible system. Pattern either holds on or flips after this. Fingers are crossed.