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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    How does this work? By invite only I assume?
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Weekend rule in effect.....lock it up
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Considering the euro had it just n of Bermuda this time yesterday I take this 12z as a big win....BIG win . The euro usually doesn't jump this much so thats the signal.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    JMA is a coastal bomb fwiw
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Yep. But its nice to see the 700mb level saturated west of the low as a function of the earlier development and explosive strengthening. Always a sharp cutoff somewhere but nice to see a more expansive shield showing up as it begins its deepening just S of the DelMarVa lat and not as it gets to Maine.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    I do like how we seem to have plenty of precip now to the left of the slp into the cold sector. The low doesn't need to be right along the coast....decent distance off the coast could actually work out for many of us if this is right. I remember when this first began getting modeled it was bone dry originally to the left of the low. Good signs all around last 18 hrs or so.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    A few so wound up the cities flirt with rain. So help me Chuck...
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Go back since 18z saturday:
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Almost no clustering lows are all over the place like a dartboard:
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    GEFS changed for the gooder
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Steady light snow in Blue Bell. Pixie dust flakes. 33F
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Surface still blows donkey....though agreed h5 improved with trough axis going neg earlier.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Not basing things verbatim off of models....just using them as a blend for guidance. Especially weighing more heavily on the ens still ar this range. If I were just looking at the cmc or gfs then I might agree. But looking at the overall flow across N America and into the Atl region, looking at ens members and means, and looking at recent systems as well as traditional Nina regimes, this one just isn't giving me the warm fuzzies. I'm done debbing (though just being realistic tbh) on this one...its the last I will mention my thoughts on it for today in lieu of upsetting folks which isn't my m.o.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Sure we have....almost every single threat is an uphill battle. It is never easy.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    There's always a chance. Up until Saturday there's a chance. But with the progressive pattern and no blocking it is going to take a change of mass proportion to get this to begin trending into a coastal hit. If we had some support or the mentioned blocking I think more realists would side with you Randy. But this is like the 1980 USA Olympic hockey team walking into qualifiers....a chance but probably need a miracle.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Have to agree with you here. We've been watching this blowup well offshore for days and support is beginning to grow outside of a few rogue op runs past few days and a few western ens outliers
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Does try for the system after the system after the next system near day 9ish so there's that.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Wide right is an understatement. Thing is trucking for Bermuda ffs
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    @yodalikely agrees and approves
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Beantown destroyed. Those bastids
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    The differences from 18z are immense. Night and day at h5
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    What do you make of the separation between the TPV in Quebec and the sw in the SE US? More evident with the new run just wondering what implications might be either way.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Does the storm after this still have a signal? For shits and giggles.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Yeah, 18z GFS just said hold my beer and gave me the double finger.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Agreed
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