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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Uh oh we don't want a full phase in the West
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    I dont agree with how the Ukie is combining the 2 waves into one solid frozen event, so color me skeptical. 2 separate waves would work though as I've been alluding to if we sacrifice the Thursday-Friday system and the trailing energy moves thru Saturday-Sunday with smaller bandwidth between the systems.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    I know, NAM at 84....but also has the trailing wave out in New Mexico much like other guidance that moves it thru next weekend with wintry precip. So looks like warm sector midweek. Then cold front passage with rain Thursday ish. Then we look to the weekend with fresh cold air source in place and disturbances moving thru. The pattern 'relax' looks extremely short-lived.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Dont sleep on the late week threat. Euro is a frozen mixed mess and the Ukie is a SECS/MECS.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    18z gefs took a step back for the late week slop. But hangs a piece of stj energy back and moves that thru late in the weekend. That could work if the first system fails Thurs/Fri with the shorter wavelength now being depicted between systems. 18z gfs was a nice active look from start to finish.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    While I completely agree about being gradient driven, we have gone in 2 days from a complete cutter up thru the Great Lakes to a decent wave tracking thru PA, to now a wave tracking under us. Definitely wouldn't call it flooding rains at this point. Heck if the trend co tines it could be squashed down in VA and NC. Just something to watch for now but seeing those moves over the last couple days one has to wonder if this is going to have some tricks up the sleeve.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Trackable
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro honking for later in the week. When within 84 hrs I'll tag you in a post. Eta: CMC with the strong arctic HP anchored over the Northeast and precip punching in....also on board
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Tapering down now after that heavy burst. Off to work. Looking forward to seeing totals later!
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    That is the upper level energy rolling thru. Rounding base of trough.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Still snowing heaviest of the morning here. 19F. Snow total above not final yet.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Measured 5" in addition to the 1.5" yesterday puts Warminster at 6.5" for this one so far.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Pretty nice stuff moving thru right now. Hopefully it can backbuild.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Yet to come. Probably overdone....especially kucera. The lower map of snow depth factors in modeled temps for ratios and might be closer. I find still cutting another quarter off of that is closest to reality most often. So if snow depth was showing 8" here probably closer to 6". Just my personal experience with the RAP.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    RAP continues to increase totals in far E PA and NJ: NON kucera:
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    0z even better wow: Non-kuchera:
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Not bad...Eastern Bucks to NE PHL inching closer to that heavy banding:
  18. Ralph Wiggum
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    12" line creeping within miles to Levittown now on the hrrr. @The Iceman
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Didn't you leave on a flight earlier to Puerto Rico?
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    No wonder models had some challenges with this storm. Pick a low...any low. And COD website is pretty good with their surface analysis...one of the tops:
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    March 2001 was my worst. My expectations are set low here at 3" from the main event so I 'should' be ok.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Everything is jumping east now last second adjustments....gem, nam, srefs, hrrr.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    33F, sun poking, and melt taking place. Ended with 1.5" from the PRE/cold front
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Only if we can re-sign Sheena Parveen to one of the local networks.
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