Ralph Wiggum

Euro trending colder for the late week system. Hints at a followup system just to our South late next weekend.

Is this the CAPE storm? If so, you can't kill the threat....you can only hope to contain it.

GFS is cute. Consistent and persistent ... I'll give it that. Doubles down at 18z when others go farther the opposite way:

Debris

Late week potential....in one corner we have: Euro/CMC/ICON/UKMET/JMA And the challenger: GFS Seems like an uneven matchup to me

Problem is as we see even on the GEFS, HP center is way out in the Dakotas. We are relying on an extension to the E of the HP to act as a banana high. Unfortunately, with no blocking and confluence weakening, that extension of HP is going to erode fairly quickly while the main center continues to build SE into the Plains

We haven't seen this at all this winter where the GFS overdoes the cold push....it never does that

That 1046mb HP is about as close to perfect as we would want for a system leading in this time of year...maybe just a hair east and north of perfection but close:

As long as Canada is cold, we are going to continue with threats. Like @JTA66 said, tough to get an all snow event as we push into late Feb and early March, but it certainly is doable. Some years you know its over because Canada is overwhelmed with a PAC firehose, etc. This looks like a winter where we will continue getting chances here and there thru a good chunk of March. It will be a roller coaster with 60s sandwiched between cold snaps and trackable events or vice-versa.

12z GEFS have improved. Much better confluence and HP with CAD. Most members now sliding underneath us or pretty darn close. 12z CMC is the most suppressed, but even that is close with a small adjustment North.

Paging @ravensrule, paging @ravensrule....please report to this ^^ post, stat

12z GFS improvements for next week. Thump to mix to rain. SLP takes better track, HP stronger and better confluence, also faster moving in with the thump. Redevelopment near Hatteras. Wave slides underneath us. Definitely growing support for a mixed event later next week:

Moving on to the next trackable wintry event, ICON starts 12z off with a mixed mess for most of PA on Feb 24-25. Surface temps don't go above freezing in SE PA until the system is already moving out. Tracks the redeveloping triple point under the region....barely. Close call but clear CAD showing up especially N and W of the fall line. Next up, the GFS...

Feels amazing!

Going to enjoy this today....maybe give the 4runner a rinse....thinking about running out when the downpours start and washing then and allow mother nature to do the rinse part. Then again, may wait as end of next week looks like a window with strong HP in upper NY state wedging down east of the apps. Might be a fun frozen event. Then another threat early March. Winter hasn't bid us farewell just yet guys....not by a long shot. Most widespread cold air to the N this time of the year that I can recall tbh. If ever we were going to delay spring and keep tracking, this is the year.

The study I have done generally falls between Dec 27 and Feb 10. After Feb 10 the rule can still apply I suppose as we've seen just the past 3 days. The chances begin to exponentially decrease for the "Wiggum Rule" to work though this time of year.

FYI, the Delaware Bay is a saltwater body until you get to around Salem (give or take) which essentially is where it turns into the Delaware River. Sometimes during drought, the salt line can get up to the Commodore Barry Bridge. No evidence of such an event or even drought conditions at this current point. So you think Nestlé is going to hike prices because of a water shortage? Not because of inflation or other skyrocketing prices? Cool narrative bro.

Ended with 2.8" of snow in Ivyland

Heaviest rates of the day in Blue Bell. Giant flakes clinging to everything. But "it's over"

You've been a wet blanket all morning, no offense. You can't even enjoy a pleasant snowfall. Instead you are chirping about drip drip, melting road, March vibes, spring feel in the air, birds in your yard speaking to you, etc. Lighten up, and enjoy it.

Radar building. All light stuff but it continues....steady mood flakes on a Super Bowl Sunday....epic win. 31F in Blue Bell

Not surprised at all to see the LV get a flush hit with this one. Midday yesterday you could see the meso picking up the banding feature near Berks, etc which kept ticking NW. I think I made a post that this would probably be their largest of the season to date and had all the feeling of backing into a sneaky surprise event. Well, good morning LV...you were due. A little over 2" here and snow still falling. Pleased with this event considering 36 hrs ago we weren't forecast to see anything.

HERPES DERPIES 18z is another SE PA deathband jackpot. Smaller zone but amts look to have ticked up....again. Eta: n/m amounts are about the same, tighter zone

This may end up as one of the best surprise events in a long time