Ralph Wiggum

5 or 6 straight runs post dec 7 it is weaker. Again, just something to monitor, not the end times Eta: and it may not even make a huge difference tbh as the ser already is getting beat down by that time. Matter of how quickly it flexes again

We usually dont rely on Miller A types or storms coming out of the GOM during Ninas. That ridge reflection is a base state im fairly certain. And wrt your other post, yes the linkage between the NAO and SER isnt unheard of and certainly could be one possibility. Of more importance to me is we are losing that strong TPV near Hudson that ens were showing being almost stationary. That feature was allowing waves/fronts to keep plowing underneath and was heliping to flatten the SER. Something else to keep an eye on. Things could be a million times worse, theres a reason teleconnection perfection is rare.

Btw, anyone else notice the pseudo 50/50 signal trending on the GEFS? Just thought that was a cool feature to see on a smoothed means at range:

Why is it nonsense? Pretty common in a Nina. We are always fighting the SER and a general trof on the West coast. Especially given the GEFS is trending rhat direction, it isnt out of the question and is a possibility. Eta: not saying it's correct. Just saying it could go this way. Have to wait and watch

Which is favorable during a Nina. Unless you like cold/dry and a suppressed storm track.

Still eyeing the middle third of December (10th-20th) for our first legit threat(s) of the season. Not much has morphed/changed wrt the overall pattern progresslon being advertised on the ens means. Scandinavian ridge feeds large negative NAO, EPO ridge noses poleward, TPV migrates into classic positon near Hudson bay, signal for PNA to go neutral/positive with split off the West coast. And now we are starting to see the ops spit out some storms in that period that coincide with the ens means pattern depictions. Trackable times arent far off. ^^a sample of what the ops are starting to tease

There's a reason he didnt get his contract renewed in Philly.

PNA spike and deep west based NAO and TPV roaring underneath could also be too much of a good thing ie cold but dry. But alas, all conjecture at this range and MUCH better than zero HL blocking and a hostile PAC. It isnt a shut the blinds pattern fo sho

But to answer your question, I personally want to see it under 120 hrs....that look verbatim. Agreed tho, that is about as close to an ideal look as we are gonna get on a means at that range.

Ooops, i thought that was a pants tent emoji

Obviously my memory isnt what it once was I do recall LC that year (he was a local philly met at that time) noting repeatedly about some volcanic ash that year which played a role in the atmosphere pattern over the N hemi.

iirc, prior to winter 95-96 there was an eruption of Mt Pinatubo. And mets correlated the harsh Nina winter in part to this same hypothesis this scientist has noted.

I approve of this post!

Congrats on getting selected! This was a very cool read....well-done.

Off topic: I really hope the Eagles dont play down to GB. Need a complete effort. Rodgers can still steal a game from a snoozing defense. Dont think that will happen, but this game has trap written all over it imo.

NFC east is insane right now.

Well, since you brought it up, I will gladly take a Boxing Day redux....of course I would want this sub to partake as well.

Watch us get too much of a good thing now....we smoke cirrus in mid Dec while Jacksonville gets plastered.

Shame its the OP. All pieces seem to be there. Even have to neg anomalies in the GOM with the pseudo 50/50 in place that isnt going too far with the massive ridge

About 3 weeks too early.

Going to play the patience game. Some AN temp stuff coming before we start seeing the SER knocked down by successive waves plowing across as the TPV sets up in S Central Canada and the pig NAO ridge takes shape. BN likely after Dec 6th-ish but more than likely our legit shots at frozen accumulating precip will begin several days following the cold air getting established. Middle third of the month (Dec 10-20) is where the pattern progression would take us for a legit winter weather threat.

This SER flex has been modeled well imo. There was always a 4-8 day stretch where it was shown to pump (even link briefly with the NAO?) before getting beat down. Ive been riding the patience train and keep reminding folks that it will be after the 6th that we can start looking at some colder weather. Now whether that gets kicked out to mid dec and beyond, who knows? But the SER flex and period of AN has always been there on the ens. It is also this feature that allows waves to track along the boundary/gradient when the waves start marching across.

Probability maps are by far the most accurate and reliable form of LR modeling that we have at our disposal.

Agreed. Im wondering if the traditional Nina shred factory will be in play or if Chuck's -PNA actually helps to offset the fast flow under the TPV in south central Canada.