Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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This^^
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It's cold-ish and windy outside. 30F wind chills upper teens/low 20s.
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Not a whole lot suggesting that Pac ridge progresses eastward or poleward. It seems in the last 10 years when that feature has flexed in Nov-Dec that it has real staying power. All tied to the MJO and we know how getting a favorable MJO progression in recent years has been like pulling teeth.
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Btw, i dont think those maps are particularly mild or torch looks. Not with a -NAO. But it also doesnt look Vodka cold either. We need better looks out West thru a good chunk of Dec and even early Jan if we are going to score. Just my thoughts.
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Looking forward, it appears on the ens means that we are heading towards more of a Nina look with a fast moving Northern jet and SER with more of a -PNA look out west. GEPS is the least Nina-ish fwiw. Needless to say, a hostile PAC side probably wont work out for us, especially in late Nov/early Dec. Where and when the pattern heads after this is up for debate. It does appear the -NAO has some staying power....but watch the Atlantic crap the bed once the PAC turns less hostile. This has been a repeated theme over the past several years....tough to get both sides working in tandem. Doesnt matter quite as much late in the season where we can cash in on crud patterns with shorter wavelength between systems. What irks me on the ens that ALSO is showing that it may be a base state feature this year is, once again, the central PAC positive 500 anomaly blob that keeps trying to feed an Aleutian ridge. We need to see neg anomalies in the Aleutians, not the opposite. So after some BN weather, it appears after Thanksgiving weekend that things relax and 'hopefully' are setting up for a reload (?) during the first half of Dec.
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Some lazy fkakes falling....and so it begins
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Temps nosediving down to 40F now
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My wife and i have been looking at homes/jobs leeside of the Lakes....anywhere from Westfield NY to Buffalo and my holy grail...Redfield, NY. Sometime in the next 10 years we hope.
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Jealous as f:
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Never heard of him.
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And just like that, temp dropped to 42F
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Im not sure if we will cool off enough by the time it gets to us. Got a couple degrees warmer today than anticipated. Sitting at 44F attm.
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If u believe the HRRR...up to a half an inch could accumulate....mulch or car topper
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Several mesos have a snow squall or snow showers this evening fwiw
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EPS up top also has more of a linkup between the PNA ridge trying to connect with the NAO. Causes some more amplification in the pattern. GEFS has more separation and impulses flying across Canada...closed circulation of the vortex in central Canads halts the linkup on the GEFS
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Thank you for focusing on the ens. I know YOU know this and some others, but i was waiting for someone to come in and claim the GFS op has a full-on Nina look with a racing progressive NS that doesnt have anything to slow it down and amplify it. Of course it is a possible outcome since we are in a Nina, but for now the best bet is use the ens past 5 days or so.
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Thankfully it's the op at long range. Not make any HH friends tonight, fo sho. Nina SER on roids
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Resembles 12z euro from yesterday at surface. Starting to see 2 camps emerging maybe....wound up GL track vs weaker more progressive low tracking closer to our latitude(s). We're pros at playing the "2 camps" game....and we almost never end up on the fail side
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See @WxUSAF post above
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Yep. Need PAC side cooperation if we r going to hit an early season metro snowstorm, ie +PNA, EPO ridge, etc
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EPS mean has a coastal over Hatteras and temps cold enough into SE PA next Friday.
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Only takes a piece of that to eject at the right time to clash with the N Plains energy diving SE. Might not want a big bomb tho, deferring to the pros on that one.
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Thats a hell of a +PNA nosing into the EPO. Definitely a PAC look that would work this time of year.
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Not a fan of seeing a ssw event this early tbh. It is like playing russian roulette with the pattern evolution. Takes the right mix of everything at a strat level to hit the jackpot. But can also muck up what could potentially be something really good. I like it in deep winter when we've had fail after fail just to try and shake things up. Not a huge fan where, for example, CFS and others are showing us headed down the yellow brick road into mid December. Guess it's a chance we have to live with at any time tho.
