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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    When is the reload? 2024ish?
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    I see the op has a shortwave leeside of the developing PNA ridge that breaks off and sinks in the SW eventually deep into Mexico. Is this feature prevalent on the eps as an entirely separate entity also or do the more menacing looks on the eps individual members keep that feature moving along the southern jet where it interacts with the clipper-like energy diving SSE? Just curious what role that may play and if the euro op is up to its bias of hanging SJ energy back and cutting off.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    0z Euro towards the end of the run is an eye opener...close miss to our South and East verbatim. I do caution that during the Nina last year the euro op repeatedly teased some big storms out past day 8 that never materialized. Reason i remember is because we crowned the GFS as the new king and we kept asking each other wth happened to the old reliable euro. Maybe this year euro regains the crown.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    We talking full tent mode here?
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Many of us had a lengthy discussion last year and iirc by the end we were in agreement the PAC/Western Canada/Western US is probably more important than just a -NAO. The latter can certainly slow things down and keep systems from completely cutting but without a cold air source due to a crud PAC, a -NAO is 'usually' not going to do it alone. It has happened before and can do so especially as we enter 2nd half winter where those wavelengths between shortwaves shrink.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Waning La Nina...cooling in Modoki region, solar minimum rebounding, Scandinavian ridging feeding -NAO....just a few of the pieces leading me to believe the Philly metro and nearby areas receive a 10"+ type storm before the winter season ends. Oh, and the WDI of course. But seriously, my research says a larger storm is on tap this year. Piece are there lets see what happens.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Wasnt terrible for 13 days out tbh. Had the right idea just progged slower (17th vs 15th at time of post) but had the right disturbance and measurable snow in part of the area. GFS is king. Not sold on Thanksgiving weekend....looks like an interior Northeast/New England thang
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    I though you were more a Cecily guy? But checking out AJ's pants? Hey to each their own, i dont judge
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Pretty classic....once you get thru the Lehigh tunnel you enter winter.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    My favorite look right there and im one of those that loves seeing -NAO developing from a retrograding Scandinavian ridge. One of those things you look for in a locked in -NAO imo.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Kind of what i meant to say....feel like when we chase the unicorn tho and it finally materializes ppl have expectations of wall to wall snow from start of pattern thru the breakdown but in reality we get a shot as pattern evolves then another as it subsequently breaks down with minor event chances sprinkled inbetween. Just playing the normal 'temper expectations' game.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    I did a LES chase back in the mid 90s outside of Erie and it was epic....3-4' in 2 days. Strongly considering chasing this one. Not getting any younger.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    And with 3'+ of snow on the ground, every seat will still be filled.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Congrats. Came to play tonight and the better prepared team won.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Usual caveat applies....perfect modeled patterns rarely produce. We've seen this a few times the past few seasons. Archambault....as the pattern sets in and as the pattern relaxes. I mean dont get me wrong, I printed that CFS and am bringing it to bed tonight soooooo yeah.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC still has the coastal low and wet snow N and W for Nov 16. Would be impressive if the GFS I posted on Nov 2 actually sniffed this one out.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Only thing I can say right now about long range.....models are throwing chances our way. Probably a few weeks too early for anything major widespread, but the fact that guidance is throwing us chances repeatedly is certainly NOT discouraging right now. Some years we didn't even get digital snow modeled until January, so we take for now.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    What could possibly muck this up besides absolutely nothing? This is the period right behind Albedoman's LV snow event that the CMC was bonkers on yesterday.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Kinda liking the loaded pattern at the end of the CMC run. Storm coming out of Plains merging with system in W GOM. Thinking the system around the 16th (Albedoman's LV measurable snowstorm) sets the stage for the followup after the 18th with cold antecedent airmass potentially in place. Cloud talk at this point.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    How much are we bracing for? Nuisance, secs, mecs, or becs? TIA
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Back in beautiful Bucks County today. Shock to the system. Ready for tracking.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    I think that's the area of interest I jokingly posted a digital snow map for last week. Albedoman says this is the one!
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Currently enjoying the beautiful warm sun in Orlando as we prepare for a fun late season subtropical system 'Nicole'. Almost like the lead up to a snowstorm.....OK, not really even close.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    First(?) digital snow of the season. Lock it in:
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    A month ago this is probably a memorable March snowstorm fall line N and W. Enjoying the spring rains anyway tonight. Raw as hell tho.
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