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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Watch the NAM score the win with this one
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON (sucks) came in warmer. Non-event for extreme SE PA counties
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    I feel good that my area will not be too bad, but N and W of Doylestown.....yeahhhh
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    NAM coming in colder and also back to the 2 wave idea with the weakness off the Mid Atl coast causing wind vectors to take on a slight Northerly component locking in low level cold. Going to get messy folks.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    ^^^Doubling down. Those that are certain icing isn't an issue this time of year only need to go back a couple of years in mid March. I assure you, it can happen.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    S NJ wasn't ever really in the threat zone, so yeah down that way should be ok. It is N and W of I95 that is the issue attm
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    N and W is in trouble imho....especially up in the LV and Poconos
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    He's the Ji of this subforum
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Yep, looking more like frozen ending briefly as light rain/drizzle before dryslotting as other guidance is beginning to also show. Pretty typical look around these parts tbh.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    .54" freezing rain here on the Euro? Likely doesn't verify imby, but clear signal N and W for a significant impact winter event. I wonder if that one guy that is putting preemergent on his grass still thinks this is hype and will be a big nothing burger
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS and mesos continue to inch colder. 6z GFS only flips briefly to rain before ending here now. Euro similar and slightly colder. NaM is lost.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Notable adjustments S with the CAA. Here are the last 4 GFS runs adjusting colder:
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro is trending quicker with the jump. 1010 and already well into the process of transferring the low to the frontrunner wave bagginess that hangs off the DelMarVa. That piece the NAM is keying on is critical in locking in low level cold with some northerly wind vectors...tho some other higher res stuff has this feature also.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS also trended colder. Have a feeling the NAM is likely overdone as usual but probably has the right general idea. Expect guidance to continue hammering on the CAD as we get nearer. Different than other recent systems that went the opposite at this range.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    18z rgem came in slightly colder at the surface
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    18z NAM is a disaster....if you like colder, snowier, then icier Thursday before flipping Friday
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    They know how these go this time of year. Congrats Boston.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    I've seen ice storms in late February before. It isnt unheard of. ETA: though most signatures on guidance are more sleety and less freezing rain, but we'll see.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Seeing the trend toward 2 waves now....which can sometimes spell a significant frozen event interior. Wave 1 Thursday, pulls down some CAA in its wake, then wave 2 Friday likely beginning as frozen in SE PA but flips wave 2 to rain unless in the LV where I would start to be concerned. Still a ways to go but definitely evolving hour by hour . RGEM is also quite cold moreso than the globals.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Alot of this is sleet, but the frozen signal for Thurs/Fri is close to being locked in now.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Ridge axis just too far displaced to the East has been a recurring theme with many storms this winter.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    18z GFS just made a big move toward the CAPE storm, or someone's storm not sure who claimed it, the one on the 27th/28th. Sorry if I credited the wrong storm owner/name dubber person.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Where are you seeing this?
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro says its over after March 2. Entire continent all the way to the Arctic circle floods with PAC warmth, no cold air left to tap. Im fine with that:
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro trending colder for the late week system. Hints at a followup system just to our South late next weekend.
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