Ralph Wiggum

This SER flex has been modeled well imo. There was always a 4-8 day stretch where it was shown to pump (even link briefly with the NAO?) before getting beat down. Ive been riding the patience train and keep reminding folks that it will be after the 6th that we can start looking at some colder weather. Now whether that gets kicked out to mid dec and beyond, who knows? But the SER flex and period of AN has always been there on the ens. It is also this feature that allows waves to track along the boundary/gradient when the waves start marching across.

Probability maps are by far the most accurate and reliable form of LR modeling that we have at our disposal.

Agreed. Im wondering if the traditional Nina shred factory will be in play or if Chuck's -PNA actually helps to offset the fast flow under the TPV in south central Canada.

And probably the last of 2022

We are going to remember this December....either as a LR ens tease that never produced OR as a wintry Dec. Im leaning towards the latter.

Someone needs to add the Bob Chill emoji to the like button selections. That is pants tent worthy.

Also, as noted in my home sub, there is a neg 500 anomaly wobbling around and trying to move near the Aleutians towards the tail end of the GEFS run. Something else to watch that could prove beneficial as we move into the 2nd week Dec.

Fwiw, if you believe the GEFS in a general macroscale pattern progression, you can see a negative 500 anomaly wobbling itself around and getting near the Aleutians towards the end of the LR while the NAO ridge is pretty much anchored in place. As Paul (Chescowx) would say....buckle up. Just to add, other ens are eerily similar wrt to HL pattern but I feel the GEFS family has had better verification at LR during Ninas. No numbers to prove it, just going off past experience.

Ens means are starting to whet my appetite after Dec 6ish. Lots of HL blocking, a nosing EPO ridge, split flow off the West Coast, TPV where we want to see it. Trying to keep myself in check. Might not have to be patient *too* long....matter of time guys. NCEP progs have the NAO tanking. Probably will start seeing digital chances appearing soon on guidance for after the 6th.

Specific forecasting 12 days out almost never works. Doing this in a Nina to boot, bound to fail. All we can do is take general stabs at the pattern via the means, but even those have proven to be somewhat dartboard throws wrt LR.

Same thing almost annualy during a Nina. Ens means rush a good pattern and we kick it til after Christmas. No reason this year should be different. My catch phrase this season so far is "be patient".

Hate that blob ridge near the Aluetians...."usually"......but with a ridge bridge from the EPO to NAO and a split flow coming onshore western n america, that can overcome the central PAC pig ridge. I like how said ridge (base state?) is feeding the EPO. We take.

Glad to see the GEFS/GFS family of models throwing us some bones.

Happy Thanksgiving wx friends!!

Ahhh, I was waiting for this. A sure sign we are in for a decent run. Happy Thanksgiving my Southern friends!

Im going opposite.....(KDYL locale) AN snowfall BN temps. At least one storm 10"+

Legit concern. Seems in recent Nina's we are always at the mercy of the shred factory. Good post.

This is becoming a better look up top towards the end of the gefs....better nao location and epo/nao ridge bridge.

6z GFS op is a great example of the fast flow around the TPV near Hudson Bay and the EPO ridging overwhelming the pattern/flow with BN cold centered of the NE/Mid Atl.. Could be some teases happening after Dec 3ish, but that look, while you may hear yhe term "loaded" being used, is that of a somewhat classic Nina...not a whole lot of amplification happening with the mean NAO ridging being East/Southeast of Greenland. SER is flat....we would actually benefit with some flexing with the loojs up top. We've been down this road often that past few years and we end up pulling our hair out because these fast moving sw's get sheared out under the TPV flow and confluence. Again, not debbing, just using the pattern presented, historic Nina base state, recent years' analogs, and past experience. Ofc every pattern presents differently and has variable nuances. The point here is remain optimistic, and be patient...we're going to get there but 9 times out of 10 we kick the can just a little farther out. Maybe this can be the 1 where we surprise and hit early?

I can see blockiness continuing to build at HL as we enter first week of December. Most ens support this. Some of the signals we are seeing wrt to big ridge in the PAC is maybe trying to nose into the EPO region way out towards the end of the ens means. I can see it getting BN cold in response to that EPO ridge. With the TPV trying to anchor near Hudson Bay, this flow has the look of a cold, fast, progressive Northern jet. Think clippers. Does anyone here remember those? Been so long. Im skeptical and I can see it getting BN cold/dry for a bit early Dec. Out beyond the end of the ens means? Your guess is as good as mine. And as we know, things can turn on a dime in weather. Just feel this reload or whatever you want to call it may take a bit longer than we want. But hey, it is still pre-Thanksgiving sooooo we got a long way to go.

Patience is a virtue.....boys, we may be waiting a while again this year. Some folks are saying the pattern will rollover early/mid dec. Maybe it will, maybe not. I prefer to look at the ens means at range and not really much furher than that. Might get bored in this pattern and end up lookong at the weeklies/monthlies for some sense of hope. For now, ens means unanimous in locking in that pig ridge in the central PAC and repeatedly feeding/reloading the Aleutian ridge. Again, we want a trof there preferably to pump heights out west (+PNA). The NAO is stout but probably doesnt help centered SE of Greenland.

<crickets>Its that time of year we're just about due for a poll on merging subforums</crickets>

GFS has been King during Ninas, not surprised