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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    I dont go by snow maps 6 days out, use the upper air charts at this range. I deleted my post intentionally as interior and North does ok. SE PA the norm. We take for mid Dec. Lots of time.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Hopefully we arent in a redux of 2021 where the GFS/GEFS led the way and the Euro/GGEM kept slowly caving.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Sheared and shredded. Nina theme. Patience. Throw enough chances one will work. Lets get thru the next 7 days eh?
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    12z gefs shared from Mid Atl:
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Take this and run:
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    I'll take this look 6 days out all the time on the GEFS:
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Confluence and flat jet ripping. No pna ridge this run. Shred factory....one of those wrenches in a Nina. Hopefully just a fluke run but is a possibility of course.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Biggest change out west wrt pna. Buries energy out in the West this run....little to no pna ridging vs 6z.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Primary dying a quick death. Good trends all around so far.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    The 50/50 is really doing its thing. Folks, we have a legit trackable event.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC is tucked....mix to rain. Trended colder tho and more coastal signature.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Isnt this the storm window that DT put out an ALEET for last week?
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON at 150 resembles the GFS 6z at the surface:
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    I noted elsewhere, the higher heights during this time moving wward from NAO to S Central Canada is now connecting with the PNA on the op centered over Rockies. Looping the past 4 runs has been eye opening wrt this feature and is one of the keys in this working.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    We'll see changes in about 3 hours im certain.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    @greenskeeper is lurking and tossing weenies....direct correlation between this and snowfall potential.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    See my other posts but the +higher heights (some calling it blocking) retrogresses from NAO wward to S Central Canada (eventually feeding the EPO). GFS times this higher height movement West in tandem with a vort moving underneath. Same time these higher heights try and connect with a ridge centered over the Rockies. Unlikely it times perfectly like this, but even more odd it was 2 runs in a row.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Exactly. Gfs at 130ish hours ago had a potent coastal for today with 60kt winds along the coast. Sunshine out my window here
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Santa wants to come to town. Thats a woofer right there:
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    6z gfs was a weenie run...at least 3 chances with another maybe largest threat brewing for late Dec 25ish. Not going to play out like this whatsoever but the model is feeling the effects of the pattern and reflecting in it's progs.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    6z is a weenie run...chance after chance.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Ensembles continue to trend with the pattern and the gfs op seeing the pattern in effect. 6z delivers: Catalyst is the PNA popping out west. Watch the trends here as the NAO acrually retracts and retrogrades West eventually to the epo beyond this. Said +heights link up with a ridge centered over the Rockies. Really cool to watch the trends here and textbook how the NAO relaxes briefly as all this happens:
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Exactly as many of us have been harping on....patience because the anchoted stout NAO is pretty colors and all that jazz but it is the the start. its actually the relax/reload where we usually see storms pop.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    And again the trend continues noted in my previous post. Watch the NAO and watch the retrogression of +height anonalies and how the connect with the PNA centered over the Rockies. Good trend nice to see. Still timing matters as all this unfolds up top allowing this storm to evolve.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Your concept is basically weather wishcasting by weenies FOR weenies? I freaking love it!
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