Ralph Wiggum

Hopefully we arent in a redux of 2021 where the GFS/GEFS led the way and the Euro/GGEM kept slowly caving.

Sheared and shredded. Nina theme. Patience. Throw enough chances one will work. Lets get thru the next 7 days eh?

12z gefs shared from Mid Atl:

Take this and run:

I'll take this look 6 days out all the time on the GEFS:

Confluence and flat jet ripping. No pna ridge this run. Shred factory....one of those wrenches in a Nina. Hopefully just a fluke run but is a possibility of course.

Biggest change out west wrt pna. Buries energy out in the West this run....little to no pna ridging vs 6z.

Primary dying a quick death. Good trends all around so far.

The 50/50 is really doing its thing. Folks, we have a legit trackable event.

CMC is tucked....mix to rain. Trended colder tho and more coastal signature.

Isnt this the storm window that DT put out an ALEET for last week?

ICON at 150 resembles the GFS 6z at the surface:

I noted elsewhere, the higher heights during this time moving wward from NAO to S Central Canada is now connecting with the PNA on the op centered over Rockies. Looping the past 4 runs has been eye opening wrt this feature and is one of the keys in this working.

We'll see changes in about 3 hours im certain.

@greenskeeper is lurking and tossing weenies....direct correlation between this and snowfall potential.

See my other posts but the +higher heights (some calling it blocking) retrogresses from NAO wward to S Central Canada (eventually feeding the EPO). GFS times this higher height movement West in tandem with a vort moving underneath. Same time these higher heights try and connect with a ridge centered over the Rockies. Unlikely it times perfectly like this, but even more odd it was 2 runs in a row.

Exactly. Gfs at 130ish hours ago had a potent coastal for today with 60kt winds along the coast. Sunshine out my window here

Santa wants to come to town. Thats a woofer right there:

6z gfs was a weenie run...at least 3 chances with another maybe largest threat brewing for late Dec 25ish. Not going to play out like this whatsoever but the model is feeling the effects of the pattern and reflecting in it's progs.

6z is a weenie run...chance after chance.

Ensembles continue to trend with the pattern and the gfs op seeing the pattern in effect. 6z delivers: Catalyst is the PNA popping out west. Watch the trends here as the NAO acrually retracts and retrogrades West eventually to the epo beyond this. Said +heights link up with a ridge centered over the Rockies. Really cool to watch the trends here and textbook how the NAO relaxes briefly as all this happens:

Exactly as many of us have been harping on....patience because the anchoted stout NAO is pretty colors and all that jazz but it is the the start. its actually the relax/reload where we usually see storms pop.

And again the trend continues noted in my previous post. Watch the NAO and watch the retrogression of +height anonalies and how the connect with the PNA centered over the Rockies. Good trend nice to see. Still timing matters as all this unfolds up top allowing this storm to evolve.

Your concept is basically weather wishcasting by weenies FOR weenies? I freaking love it!

If you go back and compare the GEFS for example wrt "the block" (higher heights in the NAO), the NAO is actually waning/reloading while ridging is retrograding up top across the bridge from NAO>AO>EPO. Its quite the balancing act and all about timing. On this loop, pay attention to the trends near Greenland with ridging. Ironically, the energy underneath that we are looking at wrt any storm moves into a better looking position near us. It appears the better positioning of the energy moving thru the East is in part to some weak ridging trends centered over the Rockies also related to the retrogression of the HL "blocking" from NAO westward across Canada. You can also see a bit of a connection trying to happen with the higher heights in S Central Canada and the ridging near the Rockies. So all one big balancing/timimg act and imho not an easy way to score along the coast or the big cities in mid Dec. Prefer more of a clean wave movement along a boundary under a more stable NAO regime than trying to play the timing game as things shift around, but we just cant know yet. Just to add, the longer range EPO on steroids and weaker NAO (still negative mind you) with TPV hanging underneath has me being grateful for the colder anomalies finally, but also pondering progressive/cold/dry theme coming after next week. More on that later.