Ralph Wiggum

If you go back and compare the GEFS for example wrt "the block" (higher heights in the NAO), the NAO is actually waning/reloading while ridging is retrograding up top across the bridge from NAO>AO>EPO. Its quite the balancing act and all about timing. On this loop, pay attention to the trends near Greenland with ridging. Ironically, the energy underneath that we are looking at wrt any storm moves into a better looking position near us. It appears the better positioning of the energy moving thru the East is in part to some weak ridging trends centered over the Rockies also related to the retrogression of the HL "blocking" from NAO westward across Canada. You can also see a bit of a connection trying to happen with the higher heights in S Central Canada and the ridging near the Rockies. So all one big balancing/timimg act and imho not an easy way to score along the coast or the big cities in mid Dec. Prefer more of a clean wave movement along a boundary under a more stable NAO regime than trying to play the timing game as things shift around, but we just cant know yet. Just to add, the longer range EPO on steroids and weaker NAO (still negative mind you) with TPV hanging underneath has me being grateful for the colder anomalies finally, but also pondering progressive/cold/dry theme coming after next week. More on that later.

Just a few days ago we were looking at major warmth for Christmas week across guidance. Another flip-flop. We should get thru this week and next before jumping 336+ hours. That IS quite the unicorn on the GEPS tho ngl

Paul Kocin would approve

Been bed ridden for 8 days with covid and finally up and out feels like i just woke from a coma. Hits everyone differently i guess.

Ffs im under a rock. Why am i dating everything dec 2 today? Ty for noting this....lock it in!

Problem is, it isnt a true block, more of a stout ridge. Big difference there. Ens werent very accurate with this 12+ days out. Now they are showing a big EPO /AO /NAO ridge bridge same time frame D+13 (again, mind you) so Im tentatively skeptical until we see this move into days 7-8ish. Past ninas LR ens have made many hobbyists and even pros look like suckers. Be cautious js.

I dont disagree necessarily but here we are again 13 days out showing an EPO / AO / NAO ridge bridge. 0-1 pitch coming.

Enjoy Gibson he was pretty solid for the Phillies. Geound ball guy, low home runs

Just made a post in Philly wrt EPO. You already know this but a raging epo ridge at any time but particularly in a Nina could be good and bad depending on how the Nina SER decides to behave. We could certainly get the boundary in a prime spot pending the SER but too much flex and we are shredding too little flex (flat) and we are sliding/shredding. Right in the middle and we might have a winner. I terested to see how this change pans out. Eta: lets just get the cold established for now. One thing at a time yes?

Energy not wasted at all. Appreciate the engagement in a constructive discussion. Thanks for your research.

Chuck im fine with a neutral or pos PNA. Im not a huge fan of seeing the EPO flex tho as it brings back memories of some past Nina's that were just cold/dry with a shred factory under us. We want the PNA to do as you noted and will monitor this but moreso keeping tabs on the EPO that ens are starting to flex. Eta: and with the tendencies for higher heights at high lat already being persistent this season, the EPO flex is a definite possibility. We could go warm/wet to cold dry back and forth. We will have chances but are going to need patience. We could be grinding teeth for periods.

Until the PNA cooperates, the way it appears to my old eyes is the EPO ridge forces the cold in behind these powerful fronts pushing the PJ underneath us. Thats obviously an ingredient we need. But in a Nina base we are always fighting the SER and the flow around it. So when the cold is plowing thru it fights against the SE ridge that wants to flex. This can work with neutral PNA (minus a raging EPO ridge) and we can cash in on gradient or boundary waves which is a more common pattern that can produce. But from my experience when we fight a -PNA and rely on a strong -EPO alone, we generally go cold/dry with sheared out systems under us. Not making a forecast on this but saying we want the -PNA to ease and not rely solely on a stout -EPO on the Pac side....otherwise we can get too much of a good thing (cold). We should be watching the ens and cpc to see what is going to happen with the PNA. A weak split off the W Coast could help too and there is sone promise down the road.

GFS waffling between tasty wound up storms in the LR and shred factory not letting any sw survive the fast flow of the northern jet.

NAM will be getting in range next few runs. Im thinking this sets up as more an elevation 'event' and far NW thing tbh....and certainly not a warning criteria event. If we had a decent antecedent cold air mass in place, could have possibly been better. But most places in SEPA outside of those I noted are going to be watching CAA chasing the departing precip and that generally isnt an easy scenario for accums Maybe some wet flakes all the way to the Delaware River, not expecting this to morph into anything significant here. Mulch/car topper to get some on the board perhaps. Lets watch the trends tho and obviously fine tune things. We all know how the weather can flip on a dime.

"Better to have dreamt and lost than never to have dreamt at all"....said no weenie ever

Do I blame ya? No sir. Fun to dream right?

Pants tent run

Im sorry if some of my humor ever rubbed off the wrong way. Mental illness is no joke....I know many affected by it. The stigma attached to it can be heartbreaking quite honestly. I hope there is someone in your personal life that can you associate with. You can even pm me all jokes aside. Im always an ear brother.

In Ji's defense, he has been tolerable so far and even optimistic at times. Now that parallel universe fellow on the other hand....yeahhhh...

There has been some good discussion in the Mid Atl forum wrt warming and how marginal events just dont pan out like they did a decade or so ago. I can attest to that where im at.....moved here in 2010 as this was 20 miles nw of philly and was almost always frozen in marginal events. We just dont cash in during marginal events here anymore....people can draw their own conclusions but the marginal line is now 15 miles to my nw. Time to relocate again?

Is this showing your ++NAO? I cant read the fine print. Coca-Cola contained cocaine until the 1940s

@I Like Snow @Voyager Dec 26-Feb 7.....high of 60F flakes within 5 days. 93% success rate since researching it from 2003-present

2nd days in a row from the CMC. It MUST be right.

Agreed. Valentine's Day will rock!