Ralph Wiggum

But when it starts to moderate look out. People will likely take that as kicking the can if we do go cold/dry which in actuality it is not. It's a practice in patience. Those that have been here for a while know these are the risks we take. Get the cold in place....thats always phase 1. We will accomplish that portion it seems certain. Eta: by no means am i punting next week whatsoever. Just replying to the op topic re: coldest anomalies post christmas

That 994mb primary low really killed this next threat for i95 and the lowlands. Brief mix at the onset in extreme SE PA then a cold rain. Lehigh Valley should hang on to mostly frozen as this is mainly an interior and elevation event.

Pretty sweet look. Lack of 50/50 doesnt concern me with that look up top. Would those higher heights at 50/50 act in essence to slow things down?

Only in a Nina bud....oh wait

The big ones are always modeled 10 days out. Weenie handbook chapter 11 section 5 subsection A.

Whats happening here? Im at work so just briefly looked at the euro, cmc, and gfs (maybe i peeked at the jma too) and things look darn good/active for next week. I pop in banter and Ji says no blue, and talks of suppression about and Nina being Nina and no hope. Oh wait, i forgot that was normal. Ok cool, sorry to clog the thread

JMA has the storm a couple days early on the 20th. Heavy snows inland but warm i95 fwiw which aint much

Agreed 100%. If we dont have snow cover by then and that cold/dry look verifies, gonna be alot of frustrated weenies. It may very well end up being the relax from those departures that we eventually key-in on?

Btw, this ^^^ is also the reason that expectations should always stay in-check. Just because an ens means may show a gorgeous west based nao block, alot still needs to come together properly for a snow event, especially along the i95 corridor. That said, I would still rather have the HL looks we are seeing so far this season and take my chances with that rather than all blues and lp up North. Throw us enough chances and we will cash in. Patience rules in a Nina, period.

A few days ago the ens had better HL ridging spread all along the Southern Canada/US border. This was when we were seeing better redevelopment and quicker transfer: Fast forward to now and you see that ridging pulled N and is more consolidated as a 'block' near Baffin. That isnt a horrible look but it allows for the primary to stay in tact longer. Sure it may help the new low tick S and E, but the mid levels are torched for the lowlands and it would take a bomb to recover the mids quickly enough:

Partly yes. And still early esp given the warm atlantic. Patience.

It is weakening, but you know how this works by now...the primary almost never dies as quickly as models suggest especially in the extended range. They almost always hang on for dear life and muck up the forecast in the big cities and lowlands. Also a function of the new low not developing as fast. Combo of the two.

Been trending the wrong way? Still time but you are trying to thread the needle for your area. You weenied me prior but seriously, go with climo in these tightrope walks.

What could have been a decent ice breaker (no pun intended) for SE PA late week has morphed into a cold mostly rain event here aside from some brief frozen at the onset. Far interior and elevated areas will see more wet snow and mixing. Remember when the primary was progged to quickly weaken and transfer to the coast? What a difference a day makes wrt the primary low:

Climo.

Not loving the setup for the late week system. Antecedent stale airmass, long SE fetch out ahead, mid levels toasty. Certainly looks more wet than white for the lowlands and I95. Maybe we can squeeze out some wet flakes or mix for a bit. Very much interested in the pattern evolution as we head into the week leading up to Christmas (and possibly farther out as well). EPO-/AO-/NAO-/PNA+....this would be one heck of a global model(s) fail if they all had the tellies wrong. But even if 1 is off, the pattern is loaded. Core of cross polar flow starts out in the western US then slowly bleeds east which is actually preferred vs a direct polar blast that overwhelms the flow and forces suppression. Split flow off the W Coast, active STJ, jet max under us. Buckle up....our patience may pay off soon. Going to start seeing discrete events showing up on guidance. Dec 22-26 is showing up as one such period that bears watching.

All the pro mets are on this one and have been for a few days so it must be right. No more can kicking or fake threats....LFG!!

I got Det +6.5 / TB + 7.5 Took Gints +7 separate. Hate to ever go against the Bird but.

Just a random thought/observation. I do like how we are 'stepping down' to a colder regime rather than relying on one massive polar blast overwhelming everything. At least thats the way it appears for now. On another somewhat related note, LR gefs is sorta drool worthy but alas....lets move it up in time.

Have they really ever been wrong tho? Lock it in!

Can anyone explain to me, umm i mean my 11 year old daughter, what EAMT is? This is one of the atmo / geo physics things Ive read and tried to decipher but am struggling with understanding for the life of me. Explain it like youre talking to my 11 year old.

Seeing my forecasts on FB pop up in my "memories" from 2013 makes me nostalgic. You know.....when December was actually a winter month. Already had 2 or 3 legit events under our belts by this time.

Dont stoke the fire. You know darn well how hard it is to get one of those that you labeled let alone get one during a Nina to come up the coast. Now half of these folks are going to be hunting for it and expecting it. Youre the devil at times I swear lol

Morphing into a fropa across guidance. Im sure we havent seen the last of the changes tho either. Hopefully those epic looks in the LR for the week leading up to Christmas hold. Has the look of cold but dry. Supression concerns? But what do I know? Is Lucy warming up for an extended appearance?

Saw that myself. Not just the gfs. Past few Nina years have had plenty of these unfortunately.