Ralph Wiggum

Sure, thats a more typical miller b (is that what we r categorizing this as?) scenario ie TN Valley. But for the lowlands, where is the antecedent cold air source that we require? The quasi 50/50 can only do so much with what it has to work with. We are relying on an almost perfect situation where the system either bombs out and becomes dynamics-driven to help those near the fall line. Im not forecasting 33 and rain for everyone. Im actually pretty optimistic that many places see their first frozen of the season.

Dying....weakening...stationary and just "rotting" away. Transferring it's energy to the newly developing low near coastal NC.

Not sure how many times it has been posted, but it isnt the track. It is a primary rotting 800-900 miles NW of the redevelping low. It isnt a rapid jump either so you get a SE flow at mid levels for some 800+ miles. That is going to roast the mids, that is meteo 101 stuff. You dont have rapid redevelopment and bombogenesis happening. We have been down this road numerous times in recent years (not this exact setup) where we get a perfect storm track but the antecedent airmass is stale and it rains. Hopefully most places can at least some frozen for the first time this season. Interior elevations should feel pretty good attm.

It looks dare i say ideal? We dont want the core of anomalous cold centered over us. Those maps in tandem are ideal...there, I said it.

My bad I must be thinking of something else. I really dont follow LV much...you guys could have 50" on the season so far and I would probably be oblivious. All is well my friend. Lets hope at some point this winter we can both cash in together.

I think it is more tho than just the handoff and the track verbatim. Even a perfect track is playing with fire in the i95 corridor and even just slight n and w mainly because of the prolonged SE fetch out ahead. You have a rotting primary somewhere in the midwest with the nao forcing redevelopment way far S and e away from said primary. Especially without an anomalously cold antecedent airmass, those mid levels are going to get toasted most likely. But as you said, lots of time to fine tune. If i were in elevated interior areas i would be bricked up after 12z fr fr.

Re euro, handoff happens plenty far south.... a little more east would be gold.....white gold.

Keep in mind, the CMC notoriously runs cold fwiw. Otoh, the GFS used to run too cold also but the latest ugrade package was suppised to address this. Not sure how relevant this might be but figured I would at least make note.

Not sure why you mention me re: wishcasting. Guilty conscience? Also, historic analogs arent super reliable esp given the ever changing climate. Hard to broadbrush, just my opine. Lastly, this is the 3rd or 4th time youve called for a 4"+ storm up your way a week or more out. How's that working out? Asking legit, I dont follow snowfall to date where you're located.

Tucked clustering. Means is nice tho.

EPS agrees and continues to show i95 mix line with a pummeling farther N and W. Makes sense....we all know the climo here along the fall line.

I misinterpreted both posts as meaning 2 opposing views thus the confused emoji. I like where the GFS headed.

I vote yea on this being the name of the system

Looks to me via the h5 vort charts that a lobe of that 50/50 remains trapped under the nao and regressed back and dives into the ull energizing the system. We just cant know at this point....very convoluted look. Could be 2 separate things or one drawn out event.

Time to dust off the H5 vorticity maps. You can see among the big 3 the major differences. The euro and cmc which are hits have a ridge amplify in the PNA which as noted yesterday is one of the keys to making this whole thing work. Allows for a more consolidated look downtream and energy digs and phases into one closed ull. The GFS on the other hand looks confused as to which sw to focus on since the flow upstream remains flat. If you loop the gfs it has a really more chaotic look than other guidance with different votices moving every direction and a general flat flow. Going to be a long week of tracking with such a convoluted pattern and anyone that tells you today they have it figured out is simply wishcasting.

6z gfs is a slight improvement....stopped the bleeding. A 3 major models show the fine line we are walking between too little spacing and a slider that cannot amplify with no mechanism to turn the corner, decent spacing with no ridge out west so farther n and a hair late to turn the corner, and near perfect tining where the sustem geys captured and pulled up the coast and stalling under the nao. Not much breathing room tbh between the system escaping S and E with a light event here or getting captured and a stalled bomb. Tbh, middle of the road seems like a good bet at this point and ens means support this. CMC like solution makes the most sense given the evolving pattern....a little something for all of us, some mixing near 95. Not a forecast....just middle of the pack which generally is a good rule of thumb with these variable progs attm. Fits mid Dec climo pretty good as well.

Pseudo quasi semi hybrid Miller ABC just for the record

If it makes you feel better, the GFS recently had that upgrade, so wrt if it helped or hurt the model, we just cant know yet.

JMA is an interior beat down:

Here's lookin at you kid:

I feel like the last winter storm warning was 2016. I know that isnt true but feels like it. They truly are few and far between anymore or at least thats my perception.

The moral is, the farther N you go generally does better with miller b's. There are exceptions of course like anything but thats a pretty good rule of thumb.

I dont go by snow maps 6 days out, use the upper air charts at this range. I deleted my post intentionally as interior and North does ok. SE PA the norm. We take for mid Dec. Lots of time.