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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Im just trying to keep my expectations in check. Been better at this since 2012. Are all the ingredients present for a potential MECS/HECS? Yes. Does that equate to a lock? Absolutely not. We do get these looks every once in a while. Some work out, most turn out to be SECS here due to timing/spacing issues. It still takes a perfect setup to get a perfect storm, lets not forget that. Lets just see how this one plays out.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    I respectfully disagree. There is still a fairly broad range of solutions that 95% of them whiten the ground whether that be a coating up to 34" on some individual ens members. Im not greedy when it comes to snow. Would love a HECS but I just want to get on the board for now tbh and a white ground for Christmas weekend is beyond just a win. If you are locked in for a MECS/HECS more power to ya. Just 18 hours ago you were telling us how this has almost zero potential.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Made a post elsewhere...this is becoming a potential where we whiten the ground even with a poorly timed setup like we are seeing. Im not going to say it cant fail, but almost every model has now shown solutions at h5 that look fail-ish yet it still snows on those progs. We are seeing a good bit of wiggle room. And as someone else mentioned we dont need a HECS. Im quite content with a ground whitener for the 24th-25th holiday anything more is an absolute bonus
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Funny thing is that is not even well-timed wrt the phasing....happens just a hair too late to nail us yet we still get 10"+.....nice potential there for something for sure. Im thinking White Christmas odds are quickly rising near 50% now.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Thats like 1/4 northeast of the USA under some form of wintry precip. Talk about an expansive precip shield and thats with the mean ens lp leaning well off the coast. We take.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    One thing is becoming more clear, and this is just my observation. While we may not be trending HECS or otherwise we ARE starting to see almost every possibility giving us accumulating snows in one form or another late next week. Even with the sw racing out ahead, the phase mistimed, a flatter PNA, etc...we are quickly closing in on a system that it snows with almost regardless of precise timing. One of those situations possibly where it just finds a way to snow. LFG!
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Feb 83 redux
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    That bust of march '01 didnt fall apart until 18 hours prior, at least up my way. Modeling has come a long way since that time.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Again, another nice ens means snowfall map. GEFS joined the eps in that regard. Lonnnggg ways to go but at this range, all the pieces we want to see coming together seem to be as opposed to going the wrong way. By saturday night/sunday we should start to see things narrow to 2 distinct camps or so. For now, enjoy the tracking and dont get too locked in to any one scenario.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Matches the op rather closely tbh
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Is a radio show acceptable?
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Textbook
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Im deceased....back to back MECS+ on the gfs. But christmas day is dryish at least
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Alright, wheres Red Sky to let us know how this isnt happening and nothing looks remotely good whatsoever?
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    If only it was in Philly BUT...Jan 1996 they played in Dallas also. Hmmmm, interesting coincidence.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    You can see why the GFS made the change at the surface from 6z. Just look at how much sharper the PNA ridge becomes at 12z vs 6z:
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Ridge out west sharpened dramtically. Meanwhile CMC looks like its lost aloft. Didnt even bother looking at the surface. GFS op jet structure couldnt get much more classic tbh and yes....that IS where we want it right now...no cutter look please:
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    6z eps pna ridge improved leading in fwiw.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    We have light accumulations (dusting)....first of the season.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Flakes are flying here in Ivyland, PA....33F and snow!
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    76 is a nightmare on a sunny day. GL be safe
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    2nd edition weenie handbook...Chapter 33 Section 69 states "When the GFS has a storm off the coast while the other globals are hits, we say 'It's right where we want to see it for now'".
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Did the exact thing with todays storm at the same range. Wouldnt buy what it's selling until other guidance follows suit for a few runs.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Well, it did the exact thing at this exact range with today's system.
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