Ralph Wiggum

This run appears OK at quick glance. No more bleeding.

Can't help but have visions of Jan 25, 2000 with that front runner area of slp sitting off the se coast. I remember in said storm that was supposed to do similar to what the gfs has been showing ie run out ahead. But I remember with that storm seeing the energy kind of sitting off the se coast but never really moving ENE....it sat and waited for the approaching energy to link up and it came N. Not expecting a repeat but everytime I see that lp sitting off the se coast in these setups I harken back to that event. Heck, I would take a redux of that one In a heartbeat.

Fwiw the 18z Volkswagen made a move away from doom and gloom and made a 'taffy' out of the tpv extending it broadly towards SE Canada: Eta: probably would end up inland like the gfs op but certainly not looking like it would jump to Lake Superior

Ironically, the gefs are slightly improved if not a decent bit better especially wrt mean lp and mean snow amounts.

GEFS mean ticked west but the individual lp's are spread all over like a dartboard. Diverging rather than converging yes?

He's going to do it anyway. Awaiting the diatribe on how perfect patterns don't always work, marginal events don't work anymore, it's never easy down this way, etc. I'm aware of all that and was just blowing off some steam. Eta: I'm not throwing in the towel until Sunday earliest. We do need 0z to ease the bleeding just a little bit.

Fyp

Seriously, I'm pondering this too. We have all the right tellies and still can't cash-in? I mean, squashed due to too much of a good thing is even more acceptable than these systems plowing thru blocks and disrupting the good tellies at just the wrong time. On to 0z.

Any temps but 60s+ on Christmas for a change would be a win.

Small enough move towards the other globals to warrant concern. I'm just hoping at this point that we still get the arctic outbreak for Dec 25 at least.

The mood right now in the main thread after unhappy hour gfs:

Gotta hand it to Red Sky albeit maybe a bit premature still. Usually cant go wrong siding with the least snowiest solutions. The real kick in the junk is how once again we have all tellies lining up and may still end up with a rain storm. The times/clime have really changed...there is no getting past that.

Yep, made a small move towards the other globals evident from. 120 on. The bleeding continues.

Looks like it is amping up too far West but whatever. I like the general idea thru 120 of sending a piece of the tpv out towards the 50/50 which is what we want.

Nevermind, I was comparing to the wrong thing. Yes, it looks gfs-ish at 78. Hmmm.

I thought just the opposite. Flatter with the ridge out West and tighter energy in W Canada...less escaping out in front towards 50/50. More ridging in the east connecting to the nao

Did we extrapolate the 18z NAM yet or did I miss that post?

Not being a Deb, but I think we are quickly losing the big MECS scenario in our regions. When was the last time numerous guidance moved almost in unison away from a MECS/HECS then subsequently moved back towards the single model holding out? It isn't common to see it play out like that.

Maybe this will morph into a colder and farther S version of yesterday's system. I mean, that wouldn't be a terrible thing....atmospheric memory and all those other superstitious myths.

He isn't really wrong.

Who is running this shit hole? I need to speak with the manager immediately.

JMA is not in the GFS camp

Was being facetious but hopefully by tomorrow evening we gain some sort of concensus.

You know we are going the wrong way when ppl like HM and DT are silent. Speaks volumes. Down but not out. HH GFS is gonna rock. LFG!

At this point we should probably start rooting for anything non-GFS and just plow that arctic air into the East. Maybe we can at least manage to not screw up the BN Temps that models had across the board. I mean, we can't fail at getting the cold established right? Every LR guidance had it.