Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Improvements so far thru 108 on the gfs
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Nostalgic
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Weenie handbook 3rd edition....Chapter 2 section 4 paragraph 7 states "when the model starts failing on the storm 7 days out we say that it is 'setting up for the followup system 2 days later'"
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Arctic squall line with thunder and rain turning to snow for 5 minutes then flash freeze? We take?
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Atmospheric memory?
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ICON looks much like yesterday's system at this range tbh. Fropa with a wave along it. Pumps ser ahead of the system and drives primary into Lake Superior. Next up, the CMC and GFS Eta: one fail option...avocado mucks things up
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ICON being the ICON....send this thing back to Germany for a tuneup
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Feb 83 vibes with the dual low structure
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That wind was pretty fierce! -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
A little sloppy and disjointed vs the same map from 12z yesterday, but this look is close to producing...very close: -
Fixed. Was as simple as clearing keyboard cache/data, adjusting a few settings (predictive text,etc),and rebooting the phone. Not that anyone cares, just figured I would post for anyone else having issues.
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I still stand by the Dec 22-27 producing at least 1 widespread wintry event for our respective regions. I see zero reason to deviate from this. If we fail, we move on....heads down and mentally exhausted from tracking. But I don't think that happens based off of ens modeling.
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50 Shades of HL Blocking?
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Just to add to the map I posted above....looks like a reload as the SCAN ridging is building and wants to feed the NAO.
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Going with the GEFS for now as it has been outperforming in the LR. I wouldn't say this is a bad look. And many know this but during prime climo we don't need/want a raging epo ridge. The just less than perfect looks are the ones that produce it seems. As long as it isn't shut the blind we are in the game. Again, this isn't a bad look....not 100% perfect, but definitely not bad or PAC driven:
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24 hours ago folks were thrilled a cutter option was waning. So, now we want the cutter idea back? I thought S and E was where we wanted it at this range?
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Are we going back to tracking avocados?
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We played this game with a persistent WAR a few years back. Don't need a repeat of that season, please.
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You said you didn't see it? Hmm, haven't seen Ji around today yet. I wonder if he was stalking and you clipped him.
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Samsung Galaxy Text Input Issues
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Forum Information & Help
Testing testing this is only a test. By George I think I've fixed it -
Glad you're ok. Those things can do a number to vehicles and the folks inside. Like you said...in a flash.
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FYP
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Different breed up here in PA....people, not the deer. Hit a deer and within minutes somebody is scraping it off the road and stocking their freezer.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
GFS decides to go with lighter stuff up here Friday but adds a weak system on Sunday with Norman Rockwell flakes and cold for Christmas Day. Going to see numerous more changes some good some bad. Buckle up. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
And euro. Instead of rags to riches we go from riches to rags at 0z. Im sure it isnt the last big shift on the models one way of the other either. I said we wouldnt hone in on actual clustering til Saturday night/Sunday.
