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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
Fix the Flux capacitor and set the date to january 1996 -
I like where hrs 282 implies we may be headed based on past hl looks as such, especially just earlier this month. Big ridge signal near Scandinavia which generally feeds the NAO over time, nice EPO ridge, and what looks to be a -AO. Little ways out but something to watch going forward:
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Soooo, how bout those +height anomalies at HL on the GEFS in the LR?
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How did I know this post would end with 'lol'?
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
Looks like our transition period is moving up on the ens. Originally the 8th looks like we start the transition around the 5th as the pna tries and go positive. EPO ridge builds. Shortwave sliding under ridging in SE Canada. Could actually see a viable threat centered around the 8th but too far our to track any discrete threat. Still need cold air in place prior to anything so let's get thru the AN temp period and the transition....by mid January things should be evolved. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
^^^ not being a smart ass but people lost power in their homes, medical equipment seized, froze to death, got stuck in their cars and froze during busiest travel days, roofs collapsing, etc. You just can't predict the worst and I'm not sure something like this the local government could even force people to leave. Those residents would have laughed at them. Plows breaking down and catching fire. They did what they could. I'm not really sure what you were referring to ie this could have been avoided. Nature going to be nature. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
How so? Drain the Lakes? -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
Looks thunderstormish outside. -
If the ens are right might touch 60 between Jan 1-Jan 3. Mixed signals involving a wave riding the boundary under our region centered around the 8th with us potentially on the colder side. Would fit the old Wiggum Rule. Might be the only thing on the horizon to track....blinds are shut until at least the 8th imo but I think our more significant threats come around or after mid month as the split flow out west takes shape and deep stj waves trudge through the deep South before hitting the SER/WAR with cold air finally making a return thanks to the EPO-
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Clippers really are a thing of lore....our possible light clipper event Tuesday...shredded to oblivion. One of these years we'll see one again. Really....I feel like we used to get 2 or 3 of them like clockwork every year almost. Storm, cold front, reinforcing shot via a clipper.
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Road trip!
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
Wiggum Rule watch in effect? -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
Merry Christmas to all that celebrate! -
Oh. And Merry Christmas to my Southern neighbors and friends that celebrate!
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Pretty much right on track....Jan 8ish is the transition. Have a strong suspicion based on teleconnection analogs that we are going to be busy mid Jan onward. Sticking to my theme for this year....patience and backloaded. See absolutely zero reason to have doubt wrt that attm.
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December 22-23, 2022: Warm Rain to Arctic Chill
Ralph Wiggum replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Think the Chessy will produce any bay-effect-streamers? I know we've seen them in the last, just curious. Wind trajectory might not be right? -
I wonder if Delaware Bay or the Chessy will produce the rare bay-effect-snow streamers that we see with these polar blasts every once in a while?
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Thanks Ovi ! Won me some Christmas $$ on draftkings...anytime goal scorer
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
Bring it. Wiggum Rule during prime climo. Cmon 60!!! -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
In all seriousness wouldn't be surprised to eek out a c-2" type as these clippers tend to juice up as we get closer. That is, of course, if the models don't lose it in the next couple of days. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
18z GFS keeps the dream alive -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
Yep, following this wave we r shutting the blinds until sometime in January probably after the 10th. But you know how things go in a Nina....LR can flip on a dime and go either direction. Eta: you're lucky to just get the noise from your windows. Several of mine on the West facing are showing their age as the curtains move when the wind gusts. Drafty asf. Damn old farmhouses. But it's character they said. You'll feel cozy they said. They don't build em like they used to, they said. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
18z NAM at range. Trends and friends folks.....trends and friends