Ralph Wiggum

That was a very unhappy happy hour run. So close on 3 chances yet so far away. Progressive asf on that run. There's your mid winter Nina look. Let's hope it's an op blip.

Not what I said at all. Nothing about models. Ppl are using Nina analogs to assume February will be punted. I think it's a narrow way to think which is why I wanted to hear from others on this board.

Well-said....good analogy.

He isn't the only one. Seems like alot of folks are banking on the classic Nina progression. I mean Nina history says we will have to work for our chances in Feb. That's always a thing. Just looking for stats that might support this Feb being an anomaly rather than Nina SER norm.

Seeing lots of chatter recently about how Feb is going to be trash with a raging SER and -PNA. What makes this thinking such a lock? Is it really a 99.9% certainty that Feb will be punted?

Now THATS a signal. Deep eastern slight neg tilt trof on the means.

That's a pretty deep slight neg tilt DEEP eastern US trof on the 12z gefs. There are increasing signals for something between the 11th and 15th give or take for days across guidance.

Looks like the gefs backed off on the bridge jump from 6z in the lr. 12z better. Definite signal that guidance is struggling with a big pattern change. The transition Jan 5-7 should shed light.

Only on the gefs. Geps and eps are full-on. The fact the gefs have been good in the lr is bothersome tho. Buckle up.

Waiting for PSU to tell us the new norm for snow in this era are sub 25f 850s

Damn you antecedent crud airmass!

Better look with the LP, worse look with HP. Been calling this one a thread the needle event and you can see why....a real balancing act. I think outside of some mangled wet flakes mixing this one is on life support but we do still have 5 days. An antecedent cold air mass would have done wonders

I echo Ji questioning the new GFS thermal algorithm. How is this all rain?

GFS op was soooo close. Minor timing issues. Still a good look given the range. Ens has similar so something to monitor

A few frozen chances on the ops over the next 10 days. Nothing screaming monster storm but let's just get on the board. More robust chances coming after the 10th.

It's about to get busy in here for the next few weeks at least.

If only we had some antecedent cold air. Story of my life. But like CAPE and I were discussing, not out of the realm that we get a rain to wet snow situation.

What is the gfs doing at 102?

6z GEFS has a fairly strong coastal signal post 240 given the range:

EPS has several lows entering the TV...maybe a start of some redevelopment near the NC coast Decent signal but as is common in a Nina, need to beware the cutter.....tho the EPS would suggest is getting forced to redevelop somewhere east given the ridging up top I don't hate this setup.

Had a few labs in my life. Just a great breed, really. Happy NY and congrats. Our home went void of pets last year and we are looking at another lab (or 2) in the spring. We've always had at least 2 dogs at once....had 2 labs and a weimaraner at the same time 10 years ago. Oh and my weim had a murmur, no issue. He lived to 14. Good luck and enjoy!

You know how we roll...either 120hr and under or 360+ nothing in-between. Eta: but seriously 240 on the Euro is the 384 on the gfs...an op at its farthest range. Waiting for @CAPE or @WxUSAF to remind everyone use the ens at that range which aren't a bad look either

GEFS and EPS just a little different in the LR wrt PNA/NAO: The GEFS have been better in the extended but I will just say this...the sudden flip around mid month the GEFS shows sort of fits a Nina after an ECS. Ive been saying we are going to have small windows sandwiched between reloads and dirtier looks and this period fits the mold....if the GEFS are even right. Jan 96...pattern flip right after and tstorm the next week. Jan 2016 good window then flipped a few days after. Am I suggesting a big storm right before or around mid month? Maybe, since several members have been signaling something 11th-14th. My theory could be inaccurate but I seem to remember in past Ninas we tend to flip PNA after a storm and subsequent melt-off. The GEFS mean just prior to the big flip: Let's not forget shorter term tho....could see flakes as early as Thursday/Friday in spots with another wave right on it's heels.

Happy New Year!

Happy 2023!