This will be the 3rd time so far since Dec 1 that the LR to 7 days+ showed a major coastal low that ended up being a fropa. Also the 3rd time the 50/50 failed. Atmospheric memory is a real thing.
Next this thing is going to morph into a glorified cold front like the 2 or 3 other 'threats' we've had. I'm taking up watching paint dry as a hobby instead of winter weather from now on.
Soooo the GEFS get colder as the storm evolves. That is actually an encouraging turn of event perhaps. This is nowhere near nailed down and yes there are concerns still which I won't repeat.
In my outlook I said we would have 1 MECS of 10"+ this year....maybe we will, maybe we won't. But I guarantee you I will treat this event as if it will be the last flakes I ever see.