Ralph Wiggum

Here we go....gefs:

Be patient. Fairly confident a backloaded winter is in the cards. Said this since Nov but growing increasingly confident. Near mid month we should start seeing trackable events modeled but more realistically the best looks should settle in after the 21st.

Didn't feel like reposting this entire thing but the pattern progression and move to a less hostile PAC and colder air reestablishing is still on track. Mid Jan forward buckle up: BN temp regime

Period centered near the 23rd is finally reflecting the less hostile curremt PAC transition and dropping BN 850s across a good chunk of the US. As I often say, I prefer a more broad-based colder look as opposed to the PV dropping right on top of our regions. All 3 major global ens systems are supporting this look as we pass mid January. So the head fakes wrt the pattern progression were in fact not head fakes and reemerged on the globals after disappearing for a few days. The lag time to get things In place may have just been a couple days longer to get there at worst: And fwiw, the CFS is not only still on board for a February redemption but has actually strengthened the colder looks in a broad regime across the country: H5 maps show some decent signals but obviously nothing discrete at this range. First ingredient is always the colder air, and my post was to show we are finally going to have that in place it appears. Will begin looking at H5 for longwave stuff as we head forward.

As always go with the least snowiest solution, in this case the gfs will lead the way.

Day 7 is usually the last day I use the ens. We are in ops mode fwiw. Not saying eps are wrong, I just lean on them less under 7 days.

Weenie handbook 2nd edition Chapter 5 section 3b....expect some big changes in the models next 36 hours as the energy out West is just starting to get better sampled.

Patience....it's starting to happen.

Not a single flake last night. Few rain drops was it. Looking ahead, not too much interesting thru mid month as our PAC transition is progressing along. But by mid January and the 3rd week of the month we are seeing colder temp anomalies showing up finally. Still thinking the pattern progression is going as modeled maybe a couple days lag than originally pronged. But by the end of all ens means we have a nice pool of BN 850s and 2m temps showing up. And the CFS continues to hammer on BN across much if the US into Feb.

Colder anomalies towards the end of the ens means. CFS still honking. Patience will pay off eventually.

Models have evaporated for tomorrow. Maybe a spritz or few mangled flakes in spots. Need to get past mid month so we get the temps in Canada back to norm or BN. Maybe next window around 3rd week in Jan just beyond mid month.

EPS jumped on board with the GEFS. There is support all around for a change for a good pattern progression. LFG!

Maybe. Just because it is progressing as the past 2 doesn't mean it will work this time.

This pattern progression has been right on schedule.

Bullseye. Not good 7 days out but I will take 7 hours out. Lock it in!

I think most of us "know" and are just trying to keep it light and have some fun with it since things are slow. There are more important things to worry about.

^^this thread

If cold is going to rebuild quickly up top, this is peak climo for that to happen, so we do have that on our side.

CFS is all aboard for first half of Feb at the very least....probably overloads us with extreme cold and dry again but it relaxes towards the middle of the month.....just in time for PD4....calling it now: Monthly (Feb):

Take Atlanta ml

Patience. We may have kicked the can but February will rock. The CFS says so....it MUST be right!

GEFS shows a path to some opportunities way down the road. Finally seeing Canada cool down and some of that makes it down into the US. Of course we need that to bleed east. And all caveats apply at this range...this look may even be a head fake. We just can't know at this time. But it is a better look even at mid latitudes to NOT see inferno reds coast to coast and to our North. It's something. Kicking the can isn't fun but maybe late Jan and Feb will deliver?