Ralph Wiggum

JMA isn't far off from the Euro. Plenty cold. Might squash tho...trof look positive and want to keeps progressing.

GEFS have been great recently

This year so far is an anomaly to the Wiggum Rule. We have hit 60 here a few times and no flakes within 5 days. Hoping that changes but in most years this theory works without fail. This year is just different. I don't have anything scientific to support this but watch us get hit hard in March. Just been strange so far....perfect setups failing, record cold around Christmas, record -AO. Something odd is in play here this year. Dont punt.

Well, there's only one way to go from here and that's up, so there's that. I said patience is key this year. We may have to remain patient for a bit longer. I'm not punting heck my punt squad is still firmly planted on the bench. I know @RedSkysaid his threshold was Jan 15. I'm in it longer than that....til at least Prez Day. I'm not happy about this tho. Only plus is heat is off and windows open so that is refreshing.

Just read an article in the newspaper...."Area heading for another snowless winter?"

False start on the offense....5 yard penalty, repeat 3rd down. 3rd and 35 after the 12z suite so far.

So the GFS is an Evansville, IN->Augusta, GA->Knoxville, TN->75 miles East of Hatteras track. K, got it

When's our next window after this?

Pretty sure most here are in that boat as well....eyes open but usual caveats. My gut says we either watch it end up sliding S and E under us or we play the thread the needle game with marginal temps and a good track. Not debbing but the overall look while yes, depicting a coastal, is not screaming snowstorm...unless something changes in future runs. H5 and surface look half decent...seeing all those things we like....banana high. 50/50, brief pna spike, digging sw....but the firehose scoured out Canada and we are still trying to reestablish the cold air source during this timeframe. Eta: waiting for you to tell me not to focus on temps but I'm looking large scale here....not rain/snow lines within some 10 mile radius

Well, the 2 threats in the MR are either doa or on life support. Looking at the lr ens don't exactly give a warm (pun intended) fuzzy feeling either. Tho we seem to have had the lr ens means fail verification quite regularly lately, so maybe we can verify opposite the crud looks depicted. @RedSky we just took a 13 yard loss on a 2nd down sack. 3rd and long?

Yep, one step forward, two steps back. Then you look at the ens means for some lr hope and just choke on your own vomit.

Looks like our 2 minor potential events in the mid range went POOF. Too fast of a flow. Maybe some mangled wet passing flakes Sunday night but temps are still marginal. Other system races/slides South that will be one of the player for the Jan 14ish system.

6z gefs made improvements at h5 on the means with a better ridge out west and diggier sw. Still having issues with the predecessor that becomes the 50/50 (or not). Stronger primary with cluster in the Lakes for the system you posted. Eta: still a decent signal regardless...again h5 was better

Where ya thinking about chasing?

Whoever said the GFS would show another Buffalo blizzard with the LR fantast storm takes the prize this run. Meanwhile the CMC scrapes the Gulf Coast Miller A style and tries to come up the E Coast. Buckle up, going to be an interesting ride the next week or so.

GFS has a bomb cyclone just developing near coastal SC at 150 while the CMC has a decent low in Buffalo. And ppl want to predict the February longwave pattern when the models can't agree just 6 days out.

Yep can't decide which sw to amplify and phase plus timing vastly different every run...thus why we should be watching the threats prior to the day 9 thing before anything else. These will dictate day 9 but most folks here are already aware of this. Nina storms can jump up quickly while looking too far ahead.

Decent 'signal' overall. If I'm nitpicking at all I don't like how these PNA ridges have been progressive lately and just rolling over. Would like to see that PNA ridge axis about 150 miles or so farther West with subsequent trof going neutral/neg near the Mississippi River longitude. But again, just nitpicking the model if we are truly looking for what can go wrong...which based on this would be progressive PNA ridge, a little too far east as the s/w is moving into the TV...likely a fish storm with that look verbatim. On to 0z.

He's tired of chasing and seeks "the one" where he can stay at home and just enjoy. Those are few and far between, so I dont blame him being a little worried. Most times these 10 day fantasy storms just dont pan out or end up smacking a totally different area than ours.

This is going to be one of those systems with little precip to the left of the low isn't it?

"Atmospheric river". Sounds more menacing.

Not you, just in general speaking.

JMA was a nice run

2 discrete threats next 7 days then a nice fantasy setup. But given the way this season has gone, we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves. Not saying YOU, just talking in general. Big dog setups always look good 10 days out. Usual caveats apply at this range.

Soooo we've moved ahead from 2 discrete threats in the mid range that could get us on the board to a fantasy storm at Day 10ish because it is a better setup? OK, got it