Ralph Wiggum

When we relied on the 50/50 for a threat back in December the NAO bamboozled us and weakened then the 50/50 became progressive and we failed. Not saying one way or the other just stating the facts.

Flakes coming soon...several 60s around.

Same. Only thing I check is Mt Holly because I have monster respect for the folks that work at that office @MGorse etc

I'm not going to disagree with you here. But I will just say ens can't even agree on some of the longwave features next week so it is tough to say we punt. I mean, if you are just using a seasonal look and siding with that moving forward I see your theory. I'm holding out hope still....MJO is finally looking to progress into 8-1. *IF* that happens it could be a game changer. I'm certainly.not willing to hang my hat on it but we are starting to see some changes in ssts in the equatorial PAC and with the jet retraction next week, so there is hope. Maybe you can get the punt team ready on the sideline, coach, but I wouldn't get them on the field just yet.

Actually, atmospheric river terminology began back in the early 90s by Zhu iirc. I remember discussing research papers in 1995 back at Penn State. My point wasn't that these terms are made up...we all know what a polar vortex is so I really hope you don't think I was implying this is new. I was saying the media tends to use these terms to bombard the general public and was poking fun while trying to keep things light in here. In any event, I always preferred the term Pineapple Express wrt the West Coast stj impacts tho both are fairly Interchangeable.

I know your younger but really? Eta: Casablanca...Bogey....a classic.

You mean the "atmospheric river"? That is what the media has dubbed the stj aimed at CA. Bomb cyclones, atmospheric rivers, polar vortex mania....no wonder people don't want to watch the mews anymore.

We take

My 11 year old girl just told me we need a new calendar for 2023. I said what kind do you think we should get? She said snowmen. I said but I'm not sure a calendar would have snowmen in July. She said no, but it would in April, that's when we'll get our biggest snow anyway. That would just be sad if reality. But she clearly understands the recent backloaded trends.

I was teasing you, I hope you realize that.

Scary stuff man. Definitely puts things in perspective.

If we get to MLK day and nothing to track and ens are bleak thru entire run, it will be 3rd and long for me. 4th down is Presidents Day. 30th anniversary of the March superstorm this year.

Pitchers and catchers just over 5 weeks. Phillies fever! I am actually looking forward to it for a change.

I've heard spring birds chirping at sunrise past few days. I'm not a bird watcher so I have no idea what type, but I recognize the chirps as those call and response late March/early April mating bird cackles. Also, the buds on my Magnolia are swelling and it wont take many more upper 50s to have them popping.

^^^So if we get a SSWE end of January, given the lag we may salvage March? Cool, that's refreshing.

I just hope when we all finally cash in PSU tracks and celebrates with us and we don't have to read his posts about how it will inevitably melt in 36 hours and will be 3+ years before we have another shot. I admire his sense of realism, just hope time is taken to savor the reward when the day comes.

The days of Vince Lombardi and frozen tundras are a very distant memory. Someone posted a map either here or in the NY forum showing the Gulf Stream has increased 7 degrees in temp over the past x years. It was a legit source. I'm assuming those increased new normal sst's are part of the reason. Probably.part of the reason we are seeing more "just offshore" bombs in recent years. Has to be some sort of correlation one would think.

Yes, open that window, I'm in

Dude, it's January 2nd

GEFS disagrees with the op so we breathe a sigh of relief for now. Lots of waffling on the ens and ops lately. Clear signs of some sort of lw pattern shift.

But does a Nina have a trof in the SE like this run does? Thru the entire 384 hrs? I never saw such a train of waves riding the Gulf Coast and still digging while they head out over FL and the Bahamas. Zero resistance or semblance of a SER. That is not a Nina look in that respect. Still seems to be acting differently than your standard Nina imo.

That was a very unhappy happy hour run. So close on 3 chances yet so far away. Progressive asf on that run. There's your mid winter Nina look. Let's hope it's an op blip.

Not what I said at all. Nothing about models. Ppl are using Nina analogs to assume February will be punted. I think it's a narrow way to think which is why I wanted to hear from others on this board.

Well-said....good analogy.