Ralph Wiggum

And a bit farther out,more poleward and a clear -height anomaly evident over the Aleutian chain with the split flow increasing.

Agreed. The look on the gefs mean is certainly moving towards a very workable look. PAC jet poleward look and the split out west would definitely be a welcome change. And you know we dont need bn temps once we get to this range for things to work in our favor. Optimistic. The progression on the means is fairly predictable on a hemispheric lw progression. Let's hope it isn't a head fake as we get past the first week of January.

GFS op at range but after 300hrs shows what I feel is a viable progression towards a more workable pattern as we approach mid Jan. WAR and Scandinavian ridging feeds +height anomalies at HL. Mean trof nudges east and is replaced with neutral/pos PNA. PAC jet splits.

If I ever go to WAR I will carry a needle as my weapon. Whoops, wrong needle. Just having some fun today with quiet times upon us for now. I'm done with the ot stuff.

We've seen WAR help us before just last January iirc. But yeah, 9 out of 10 times what is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Say it again!

I feel like we just tracked a similar setup just 2 weeks ago:

Liking how guidance is moving the WAR and feeding a ridge up top of us. Let's thread this needle boys!

CMC is similar but missing that antcedent cold. Could see a rain to snow type deal. All conjuncture tho at this point. Should watch it

Tbh, this transitional period is right on schedule. Small thread the needle window as PAC transitions. Still optimistic we get to a good place by mid month. Eta: at least we are seeing beyond the closed blinds

Shhhh, we can will this. We excel in these situations. That WAR will keep it from sliding and keep that kicker from shoving it out to sea. We got this!

You know I'm bored when I'm dissecting the ICON at range I mean cmon, if we get that lobe N of Lake Ontario to phase in. We can do this

ICON would be somewhat drool worthy if we thread the needle properly. Big 1041hp anchored over SE Canada. Move the S a bit and move the slp east.....meh, lock it in. Wth could possibly go wrong? I mean, we usually would love this look usually in early Jan. Where's that antecedent cold when u need it?

Still like to see antecedent cold air mass in place prior to talking any discreet threat, and I know it's the Volvo of computer models, but heck, gotta love that big 1041hp with a banana signal anchored over SE Canada and the CAD signature on the 12z ICON: It's a small window, common in a Nina....and definitely a thread the needle situation but heck, nothing else to track attm besides AN temps in the short term.

I honestly don't think we see much of anything...some flakes maybe. No real support on the ens. The premise of my post was more to show the roller coaster with us possibly touching 60 then flakes a few days later. Eta: Euro has the temp swing and flakes as well. I just think the effect is pretty neat and somewhat predictable

Not really a true baroclinic zone nudge. My research shows more of a rubber band snap effect wrt deep winter full lat ridges and subsequent polar fropa within 5 days thereafter. In my studies when you loop the hemispheric h5 charts and focus on the West, it often resembles a rubber band snapping. I posted my studies here years ago and ppl started referring to it as the Wiggum Rule. When I submit my papers to the AMS I am going to ask if they can keep that name. Not sure if copyright issues would allow for it tho.

Wiggum Rule watch....Jan 4: Jan 7....flakes: Pattern continues to develop into a more favorable PAC and mid month forward holds some hope for you very patient snow-starved weenies.

Those temps 60+ are important up this way for personal reasons (research). Bring it!

Epic

Wrt Jan 15-20 and tracking mid range. I guess that depends on what your expectations are? I would like to be tracking legit by then as well, and I honestly think something may pop before then. But even if not, we've seen plenty of Febs save a crud early winter and even more recently we've had a few really solid snow events in March.

And wrt threading the needle events, we do those as good as Stevie Wonder trying to find a needle in a haystack.

I think there might be a thread the needle sort of window before then but yes, mid month on should get things at least more sustained seasonal with some 'legit' threats before we hit another thaw. Thus is Nina...small windows sandwiched between thaws and cutters. No 2 are exactly alike but thats the general theme.

It was never the first half of Jan. Might be a tiny window or 2 but first half is essentially the transition away from PAC crud and re establishing the cold air source to the North.

I know a few here have basically canceled winter or are very pessimistic of anything wintry here. But mid-month forward should present a few solid chances before another 'thaw'. Nina is all about windows of chances sandwiched between thaws and cutter patterns. It was never going to be balls to the wall winter from start to finish. But I stick by patience and hanging in there as prime climo will provide the best windows then as HL blocking gets things all convoluted come later in winter more windows will open. Just don't jump out the windows yet....patience!