Ralph Wiggum

This is a solid look. Pattern progression mimicking past 4 weeks. Should see legit opportunities by mid month latest and moving forward from there. Is @The Icemanstill on a bridge preparing to jump? Wish he would see the light.

Yo bud....doctors orders....well, not a real doc but a few buddies from this forum. Seems to be working, just woke from a slumber. LR gefs looks pretty amazing. Patience.

Discussing it elsewhere I'm not sure it was 'missed'. I didn't post on it because frankly people think when we mention it we r writing off winter and grasping at straws....which is quite the contrary.

Not really a shock. All global ens has the SSWE showing up for a few days. SPV taking a pummeling.

My wife has had it for 3 weeks. Double ear infection probably from the strep 3 different antibiotics later.

Well, at least Canada is reloaded before mid month on the GEFS

That's some deep stj moisture coming under that split out West. I'll take my chances, where do I sign?

Chase to Atlantic City? Craps table surrounded by a bunch of weenies gooning over wet mood flakes ftmfw! See y'all at 0z

There is definitely something to this.

Dude, we even suck at being sucky. Bunch of suckers we are, yet we return for more.

Watch the GEFS go weenie mode this run now.

I'm done looking up top for good looks. I mean wtf is this and we still torch? Probably not right but cmon already.

I hope you are like 10 pints in after that run.

Swamp ass weather

Wiggum Rule headed for a rare fail. 61F here today and I dont see how we muster a flake over the next 5 days.

My expectations thru Jan 12 are lowish so I'm not expecting much outside of some fluke flakes or a fluke event we back into as we transition. My expectations for mid Jan forward are on the relatively higher side....not expecting wall to wall winter or a bunch of MECS but certainly more activity and finally cashing in with a few legit events. My patience is very high this season. We may very well have to deal with more warmups with colder active windows sandwiched inside. I mentioned this in my preseason outlook and stand by this.

Patiently waiting to hear Ji declare that run is an unmitigated disaster with no blue thru mid Jan. This is about the time he usually cancels and we begin tracking legit events.

But if you're looking at thise models to see if they agree with the GFS storm, then you're still tracking. Neil Peart of RUSH once said, "If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice"

I've done a research paper with data going back to 2002 for the Doylestown area specifically in SE PA and there is validity and factual support for this. I would only assume the same holds true for other general areas relatively nearby. My data here shows when we reach 60F we have flakes flying within 5 days. Not all are accumulating....about 75%. Of that 75% about 90% of those are 2" or greater. The date range of studies was Dec 27-Feb 10.

Good to hear from you. Enjoy your vacation. Just hadn't seen many folks touching post Jan 8 aside from @CAPE and myself. You are usually driving the bus.

I have a hunch this amping of sw's pressing East across the TN Valley is going to be a bias of the new GFS we are going to have to get used to. This would be 3 in a row it did this with at day 7-9. Just something I've noticed. May or may not be a thing.

I'm with you. I think this Jan 6-8 thing is happening during our transition. And most of the time these don't work. I'm more interested in the lw looks a week later headed to mid month. Pretty sure we are on the same page wrt both of those things I mentioned. Did @WxUSAF take a vacation?

Just want to use the eps as a quick example since it anchors the TPV over Siberia and blocks any true CPF and has a more toasty look up top: Someone yesterday posted 2m temp anomaly maps like above to support their theory that the pattern going forward is crud. Again, I'm using the least favorable look EPS up top wrt those temp anomalies to show you we don't need a perfect setup or even near normal to get the surface near freezing. Even slightly AN 2m works during prime climo. It is below freezing at the surface same time on the means: In any event, I would not be basing the pattern on 2m temps. Look at the lw pattern overall. And while the EPS isnt as stout as the GEFS (more reliable lately) and GEPS, it still has enough cold to the North via the Aleutian low and EPO nose. The key is getting the 250mb pac to retract which all signs say that will happen. The cold will rebuild thereafter.

^^^that may not be a big dog KU slow crawling coastal signature but that is MUCH better than current and implies a wave train moving under the region with us on the proper side of the boundary.