Ralph Wiggum

I wanted to note this yesterday but for fear of debbing the board I refrained, But since guidance is now leaning more more thread the needle I jist wanted to say we aren't tapping much of a cold air source, with virtually NO SNOWPACK to our north. Sure, a transient cold HP could work for a bit but even with these perfect track looks, once mids start flooding with an amped low closing off, dynamics will work for a bit, but there isn't the help that we usually see where cold ir is locked in or keeps funneling in. I realize there is more to storm dynamics than this, alot more, but there is no denying this is a big problem now and will he a problem for the foreseeable future. Just my $.02

Yep. No arguing that. Does look like we lost some of those cutter members from earlier today due to the better ridging to the N probably.

Not sure I agree. Western trof stronger, ridge downstream from there stronger, trof in E/SE slightly stronger/deeper. Vorticity in the stj that was going to phase with the PJ into the 50/50 just kept moving due E or slight N of E and stayed separate too long. Again, plenty of time and noise for now but we want the Euro and other guidance to move towards a better consolidated 50/50 over the next several days, not the other way.

Different situation but similar setup to a system we had in Dec where we were pinning hopes on a 50/50 at the same range and a transient PNA spike. I can't remember if it did the same thing ie didn't really phase in time or phased in the 50/50 area but moved out too quickly. I want to say the latter. We'll know in a few days I guess what this decides to do.

Pretty big move actually on the GEFS that went from a consolidated 50/50 towards more separation and less phasing among individual members....thus this change on the means. Plenty of time tho.

So, a thread the needle type situation, so-to-speak.

I'm seeing that across the board re: the 50/50. Definitely a crucial piece for this to work.

Don't get me wrong, it's a pasting but occluded and sits and spins flipping BUT doesn't matter 7-8 days out. Gonna change.

Spoke too soon? Closed off and mids torched with the easterly flow. Still, much improved for an ops at this range. SIGNAL.

An 800 move in the right direction

CMC is the eps from 12z A crushing

CMC woah

Any visible chemtrails?

Last pic is most definitely a dog running. Or maybe that's the ever elusive unicorn, hmmmm. Good to hear from you btw.

Gimme 300 on the inside runner that no models are currently showing.

Geez, get better all of you. Kids can pickup germs everywhere, they are germ magnets. Just a hunch....mine gave it to my family. Get well!

I pulled out the voodoo for the rest of the winter. These are just a few. LFG!

I'm pulling out all the stops for the remainder of winter. My version of voodoo. There are more than these but you get the drift. Yes, I love snow....admitting you have a problem is the first step

How much we talking? And what are we using to measure verification? I know a guy that might be interested.

The features at 84 hrs we are looking for upstream to work into our 50/50 look decent at least. GFS was pretty close to a good solution wrt to that but just mistimed the phase offshore.

With that said hard to get a woody yet tho worth keeping a close eye on for now.

JMA is a squasher fwiw. So we have everything from Buffalo cutter, to cold heavy rain, to a miss just South. I mean, the setup is what we want to see for an ECS, but where that plays out is TBD. I'm nowhere near all-in yet tho as I mentioned last week, transition begins around the 6th-8th, weak signal for the 11th. Then around mid month we have legit trackable events. So here we are, progression repeating like Dec, just prime climo now. Eta: I still want to choke on my own vomit at the lr ens but that also doesn't mean they are right....because honestly I don't believe they are.

The fact that @Bob Chill has remained quiet is really all anyone needs to know at this point. When he pops in, it's go time.

We should be getting an ALEET ALEET soon.

I can't even take this serious if you aren't using the CRAS or NAVGEM. Kidding aside, good post.