Ralph Wiggum

4 straight...missed his last vs washington

As per all 3 major ens means it looks like patience will finally pay off the last week of the month and into Feb. Signal for overrunning events is actually growing instead of waning. Get some of these discrete threats within 5 or 6 days and we might have something. Winter is far from over. Major SSWE happening and SPV split, enso ssts starting to warm, MJO not super amplified going into marginal phases, NAO-, split flow out west, TPV displaced south allowing for caa, 850s well BN, SER getting beat back. Let's do this! Buckle up...backloaded winter incoming

You punted. What were you thinking?! Hurry downfield and catch your own kick....fast!

How about a caramel espresso porter?

Watch Feb do the unthinkable now and go opposite the typical Nina base and be a redemption month. Honestly would not surprise me in the least. This hasn't behaved like a typical Nina and the SSTs are already warming slightly in the enso waters. Add the SSWE too and anyone's guess.

Yes but that is a PV split at the stratosphere level 10mb, not trop

FML....we r back to tracking avocados that overwhelm the pattern with too much cold? Glad it's just the op, but there is a deja vu vibe here without a doubt.

Well, wrt the Jan 25, 2000 bust (a good bust mind you) you say will never happen again we still have major busts under 24 hrs and that goes both positive and negative. There was one coastal maybe Jan 2017(?) where coastal S Jersey was forecast to get 1-3' up until 12 -18 hours prior. Mets kept saying it's coming, just delayed. Woke up in Wildwood NJ to partly sunny and a scattered flurry. Guidance isn't perfect and we still get surprises. I'm sure there have been positive busts for folks on here within the past few years as well. Guess my point is that speaking is absolutes such as "this will never happen again " can be a careless approach. Now back to the weenie eps gents.

You also said the 6z gefs mean was a torch thru the end of the month earlier so there's that.

Ffs those lower heights better not take on the appearance and color of an avocado on that other site's map template.

I'll take a 10 hour window at this point brother. I think many here would tbh.

As long as we don't start tracking avocados again when the TPV starts wobbling around and gets displaced. Don't think we will this time around.

We've failed at every single other complicated and even simple paths to victory so far. Let's try the gradient wave pattern. If this one fails we can all throw logs and journals at PSU in defeat.

Exactly. I like seeing Ji's precip map displaced S too. Not a bad signal.

Toasty asf

Haven't gotten to watch much of the Ravens this year being outside of their market but they are just painful to watch on offense.

As an Eagles fan this match up vs the NYG is my worst nightmare. On paper, sure, it's a lock. But I don't think it plays out quite the way Philly fans will want.

We do a trilogy viewing one day every few years. Start at 8am. Brief Intermission between films....wrap up 9pm. Love it

Pulling for an upset tonight. Go Ravens!

Hail Mary time.....4th down. LFG!!! Still time on the clock.

You punt and models start showing snow. Happens every time.

And there's that weakness extension into the 50/50.

Haven't even looked today...been busy at work and sneaking in some football. But the ens means among the 3 major global modeling systems had weakness and a strong signal for LP in the 50/50 region as recent as 6z. Wouldn't be shocked to see us back into something....the overall h5 wasn't screaming big coastal low but definitely signaled overrunning gradient on all 3 ens means.