Ralph Wiggum

Debs gonna deb. This looks fine to me.

I was more thinking the boundary sets up too far S and E to do us any good, ie, too much of a good thing scenario (TPV caa push) as one way we dont win. Again, just throwing it out there because we have to be careful too when the TPV gets displaced and starts progressing along. Means are all over the SER flattening and the TPV skirting by to the N pushing in the cold but as I noted yesterday, it's a clean setup but still a thread the needle wrt timing of that push and the waves along the boundary. We can score with the boundary and cold even pushing too far S and E if we time a wave or 2 right. For now we wait because as @CAPE would say, we just can't know yet.

What was Chuck bazzing on about yesterday that our best chance in this N Am longwave pattern would be with a ++NAO? I tend not to read some of his stuff too deeply as it often is contradictory. Any truth to what he suggested tho? @CAPE, @psuhoffman, @WxUSAF

I mean, it's a pretty clean setup and way to score but there are still significant ways to muck up this period, and I know you are aware of how. All going to come down to timing between the moving/progressing TPV to our North and waves along the longwave boundary out ahead. At least we have a legit window again...now we try once more to work in a couple discrete threats/waves.

Individual ens all over it as well. Hate to be pessimistic but I'm sure we will find a way to fail. Get it within 5 or 6 days and I will start believing.

Feb 3 it says tho

Keep that TPV (avocado) up in SE Canada and not plowing into the Midwest and we might actually do this. Balancing act....displace it South too far and run the risk of squashed cold and dry....not displaced enough and the SER flex wins out and we go warm/wet. There is a path to victory but it is narrow imo. Hopefully we can widen the goalposts moving forward.

Is this the +NAO Chuck was saying we would need to finally score?

Careful what u wish for. It's going to take some bowling avocados to 'squash' that SER, pun intended.

Here we go with the fucking avocado bs again.

Money line? I'm taking the gfs. I also doubt they run 12z Euro bet they resume at 18z or 0z.

How's your book coming along? I see you put chapter 1 here for us to proofread. Looks great!

^^^ and under 9 days away....what could possibly go wrong?

Here....chew on this ya filthy animals:

GFS has been right every time it showed no digital snow which is 95% of the time this winter.

Nah, most of us were already crazy before we embraced this wonderful hobby

Absolute disaster of a winter.

When was the last time the CMC was right?

A boundary stalled under us with weakish waves riding it would work such as the ens means are hinting at for the 1st week of Feb. An amped up low...as you said...warm (relative)/wet.

Just wanted to note that even with the SER flex as you pointed out, the 2m temps (and 850s which I'm not posting) are still BN and plenty of cold up top. If the PAC side went to puke in addition to the SER I would be tempted to punt Feb, but as long as we have the cold air source nearby we are still in the game for a bit:

That base state isn't going to change. We knew coming in this year would be windows sandwiched in-between AN stuff with a flexing SER. So far those windows have been unproductive. Maybe this early Feb period can work for once.