Ralph Wiggum

Looks like a few waves for now, but as I said this entire setup beyond Feb 1 could still morph. It is actually close to a morphed look as hints the TPV hauling ass out faster and the SER return flow pumping again. Could also slow down under a confluent flow and cause more suppression....it's a subtle detail that could have a major impacts. But with these waves they traditionally move the boundary around, so we could see the first setting up near our region and the followup more suppressed etc. Doubtful that we don't see ANY flakes but we just can't know yet how these waves are going to play out. Each one is interdependent on its predecessor so it is more of a 30 hr forecasting type week and not 120 hrs out. The pieces are there for 1 or 2 modest events (probably not a BIG storm tho that is subjective if we are relating this to the lack of any real snow so far), lets see what happens.

Not in a good spot imho. Not attm anyway. Just made a post in the mid atl thread. This is the range next 24-36 hours where these systems have morphed all season and I would be surprised if we didn't see this happen again. Unclear if for better or worse tho. For example, the GEFS individuals don't like next week at all. Either suppression city or misses N and W, not real in-between aside from using the mean blend which doesn't reflect that volatility which the ind members are showing..

This is the range where all season that systems have begun to morph, so I would be surprised if we don't see some sort of changes or fly in the ointment type deal over the next 24 hours. This does seem like uncharted territory this year where we actually have a fairly clean setup and a workable path to victory, so who knows....maybe this one is/will lock-in with just subtle ticks n or s. With other prior systems in similar range we either ended up with the SER being more stout, a rogue sw up top mucking things up, or like before Christmas the TPV morphed into an avocado and overwhelmed the wave. Not suggesting a major change here. Just noting that IF we are going to see this thing morph into something different it is going to be over the next 24-36 hours of runs. Otoh, if the looks hold, you guys south of lat 40 are in a really good spot imho where up my way we probably end up fringed. GL with today's runs.....and may the force be with you.

How many pages in total do all of the main discussions have with no snow to show? Has got to be some sort of record ratio I would think.

Let's go!!

That's plenty big snows....a mecs per NC standards sir

Well, we haven't really failed with suppression yet so let's have it. Why the f not right?

No mechanism to bring that N whatsoever.

Suppression depression...a most unhappy happy hour unless your name is DT

TPV swinging thru SE Canada alot faster. Looks squashy

Love it!

Sour Diesel on the rocks

This is the one....Feb 12! Lock it in :

Backend stuff? @ravensrule

On to the eps!

What happened to this massive cold push finally in place??

I'd rather have it under 120 hours so we have a clearer picture of the camps presented, but that's just me. The whole "it's right where we want it" thing is a weenie fallacy tbh.

See my other post. Gotta stop with the "no way this can be suppressed" talk. All options on the table still but nothing set in stone. Could cut or could slide...we just can't know (sorry to borrow your line @CAPE)

Just to play devils advocate here....but this is very different in that we have a displaced TPV and cold air pressing as the SJ wave rolls along so can we really say this is coming North 100%? I see what you are saying, believe me I do....but this setup is uncharted territory for this year and if the ens individuals weren't showing a decent clustering sliding under us I would be more inclined to side with y'all here. As you were....

That's the one we r keying in on but for some reason folks last night were out to day 10+ as the threat

Atl looks slightly improved, pac looks slightly stepped back. They cancel each other out imo. Was supposed to be the confused emoji. Seems when one side trends good the other trends opposite. Couldn't tell you last time we had both side work in harmony. Tho with the early Feb thing the Atl side is probably.more important. If we can score then I don't care if the pac fails and we move into a spring break pattern.

Bro, 10 days out. This is the Roger Smith storm he mentioned in early January, but let's get this under 120 hrs. I know....nothing else to talk about....I get it.

Make. It. Rain.

I predict that we can't predict what this model run will depict. Jeahhh