Ralph Wiggum

Sift back thru the last 3 pages of shit....I was all.over it.

I don't think you get what ppl are saying. I am not really disagreeing with this whatsoever tbh. But the mods have made it clear there is a place to discuss that and most of your debate points are 100% valid and justified. I think some folks just get want to discuss models and current wx without having to sift thru posts that essentially say "sucks to be you, a snowlover, because these are the new times we are in and we will never go back to the way things were so too bad for you and deal with it". I personally don't care one way or the other. I'm just playing devils advocate and stoking the fire because it's boring. Weather/nature gonna do what it wants.

But what is "before". Folks keep saying "before, it would have snowed in this pattern". I am willing to bet if we started the season on schedule and up North had a snowpack we WOULD have had more LL cold available. I'm just skeptical of the "it probably won't ever snow again because of (fill in the blank)" crew. Your points are valid. There is science behind a good portion of it. But things fluctuate (change). I don't think our best days of all time are behind us. Nature has a funny (sometimes cruel) way of balancing thing out over time. We can look at TODAY....the west coast has been in an epic worst of all time no end ever in sight drought for 7-10 years. Things balance out. Nature always wins.

I wonder what this forum would have been like in most of the 70s and 80s and early 90s? What would we have blamed back then? Anyway. Some red tagger on another forum is using 1862 as an analog for this year. Anyone remember what happened in Feb that year?

Bingo!

Better look for the 22nd/23rd wave as well. Colder overall and farther E with the LP. All we can take away for now is there's a chance next week. Albeit it doesn't have tons of support. But beats talking upper 50s, cloudy and thunder in mid January

This run is a much improved look for the 19th - 24th. Not quite there yet. That's all we can take away for now.

You probably got some snows there during your college years that I didn't get up here, so there's that

Kind of disorganized with lots of moving pieces. Dont hate what I'm seeing next week anyway.

GFS is really trying to pump a pna ridge after the 20th. Maybe transient, not sure, but the 22nd threat is digging in response. Might be a decent run.

Good pass with the ULL...burst of snow on the back end

It's not far off tbh. Low probability but still.

12z gfs isn't far off from a trackable event for the 19th/20th. I would rate it as low probability right now, but a few shifts S of the HP or track of the slp and maybe:

Meanwhile, the GEPS overwhelms us with cold/dry and nary any sign of a SER. So pick your poison.

I think he is honing in on the SER feature and the eps is seeing that a little bit more. Either way it doesn't look like a blinds-shutter. Could go either way, alot will depend on how much cAk can press and how much the SER pumps....will it flex? Will it be a flat ridge like we've seen recently? Who knows yet, something to watch.

I'm not sure that's a shutout look tho on the latest GEFS. CPF entering central US, stj under a split flow, weakness in the 50/50, and a ser. Looks more like a gradient or boundary setup where it will depend how strong/dominant each feature becomes. Cold is able to be tapped, 50/50 may help at times, stj sending waves along the boundary. To the N of where that sets up can cash-in. Going to depend d alot on the strength and positioning of the SER. That will likely drive the pattern wrt where the boundary sets up shop. Alas, we are talking last day of an ens means forecast. But I don't think that's a shutout look verbatim. It's close to being pretty good tbh.

Last post re: Feb 2006....I think this guy now forecasts for this subregion iirc?

The deformation band was just puking snow. It started out slowly the 2nd half of Saturday Feb 11 but by midnight (NW of Philly) it was ripping. Had a lull around daybreak, then the deathband pressed thru with sustained 35mph winds and thunder for about 45 minutes.....rates of 3-4"/hr.

I don't think anyone can say with absolute certainty. Models are struggling 7 days out still. I don't see a shut the blinds pattern at all on the horizon, at least based on overall ens means. So we should still have chances going forward. Problem is, we haven't cashed-in on any chances so far. The SSWE that all models are now showing may have some implications as well. If we get a single 1-2" storm, I think most would take it at this point.

Well said.

Currently watching home video of my wife, myself, and 2 dogs taking a Jebwalk under the death deformation band during the big Feb 2006 storm. Ahhh, memories.

Welcome aboard, plenty of room.

What Would Ji Do? Don't answer, he already canceled winter earlier.

Sucky snowfall delusional disorder