Ralph Wiggum

Today's system was somewhat modeled like this in the same range. It was more of a thread the needle look but the 22nd thing isn't exactly a clear path to victory either. Hope we can fluke into something in this mess before we have to rely on the shorter wavelengths thing i noted above or some mega convoluted mid March system.

But you and I both know that when the wavelengths between systems become more favorable into late winter during Ninas is when we traditionally score. I am expecting nothing less this year probably into March. I think it was you that mentioned it in a post earlier...drag the boundary South behind a storm and sneak a wave behind right on it's heels as the boundary is under us. If this year's rapid sw progression is showing us anything it is that the aforementioned simple setup is how we are going to score when those wavelengths shrink. It's really the only way right now. Everything else is failing and there is no way to sugarcoat that.

And mjo looks to progress from 1->2->3 in the coming weeks so of course we are seeing the SER starting to show up again on some of the lr ens.

You mention SER persistence since 2016. Aside from a brief Nino blip in 2019 we have overall been stuck in a La Nina phase since 2016 which features the weak WAR and a SER canonical base. Too much of a good thing isn't always good either....we had a string on Nino years in the early.90s and we sucked it up. When we see ENSO fluctuate YOY is 'generally' when we do ok (normal?). We can either hope the SSWE helps us do a backloaded thing or we pray we come out of this succession of -ENSO. Again, maybe simplistic in my approach but truly think these are related to why we score or suck in winters among other factors.

But is the WAR really something new? And have we seen this feature be predominant for an anomalously longer stretch? Like a decade or more? If the enso phase shifted and we were snowy with a Nino, for ezample, would any of us really be talking about WAR and SER and troughs not aligning the way we like? And before you get to "but marginal Nino events don't work for us anymore", can you answer my last question? I don't think it's a simple answer wrt the pattern. I do think a massive chunk has to do with enso however. With that said, I also think we tend to over complicate things at times.

Troughs are amplifying way sooner than I ever remember...I've literally seen 15 straight cutters on the gfs since mid dec 1997-98. It happens. We have these stretches...decades at times. 80s sucked. Big chunks of the 90s sucked. We had a pretty amazing stretch for a while before 2016. Nina DOES have alot to do with it. Especially when you get one for years in a row this stuff happens. It likely wont change until we get out of this enso phase or something flukey happens to counter the Nina canonical base. Long term enso phase locks tend to strengthen the base state tendencies to suck ass. Once we get a major shakeup in the equatorial PAC ssts I'm willing to bet things change. Would love to have the time and energy to dig as deeply as PSU likes to, and I know this is somewhat simplistic, but this string of several Nina years in succession isn't common....and neither are the pattern analogs so methinks there is a correlation between the 2. Until Nina wanes, we are fucked imho.

Fwiw 3 massive solar flares from different areas of the sun in a 4 day period a few days back. Pretty unprecedented from what I've read. Eta: deleted non PC sarcasm

Day 10+ on an op tho? I mean, the GEPS do look a hell of alot better than the GEFS but can it be trusted?

That was a good one. I have video of me and my wife and 2 dogs taking a Jebwalk as that deformation band cranked overhead. And back then, those videocameras werent small enough for your pockets. It's a wonder I didn't destroy the thing and have actual footage!

Thunder and lightning here in Ivyland. Your typical mid January evening

You know as well as I do 1 of 2 things will happen. A) whatever can go wrong WILL go wrong....whether that be a displaced ridge axis, badly timed SER flex, etc. Or we do the complete opposite and enter an epic window of winter.

Cali is fooked

Actually trended the wrong way (West) with the mean Western Ridge axis longitude vs 0z run. Soooo, the chase continues:

This is a nice color palette change for the snowfall map...nice totals

That western ridge is what concerns me as well. Makes sense to be displaced to the left unfortunately as that also fits this repeating pattern progression. Was/am hoping this go round we have climo on our side vs early Dec and late Oct.

Also, has sort if a 2014ish look to the longwave pattern if I remember that season correctly. Had the overrunning pattern and it locked in most of the winter.

My daylillies are sprouting out of the ground up this way. Daffodils are half inch out of the ground. Lilac bush has growth. Magnolia buds close to popping. Cherry Blossom Festival before PD?

Yes I posted this earlier about the gradient overrunning. I don't hate the look. It's where the progression should take us....things on track still for a backloader. The post you quoted was from that dude in another sub, not my thoughts. That was what he was suggesting....a tiny 2 day window then spring. Again, I tend to disagree with his thinking at this time.

Cherry blossom festival might be around Valentines day this year if things keep up.

Some astronomy dude in NY sub says we have one chance...Feb 4-6. Maybe a Feb 83 or Jan 16 vibe...MECS then meltoff starts next day is what I got from his post.

I joked with you in a post earlier wrt western ridge but if early seasonal history is a thing, yes, frustrating.

Beautiful day! Daffodils are a half inch or more out of the soil and my daylillies are emerging from their long winter dormancy. Wow, Jan 12...earliest I recall seeing this.

Meanwhile my 11 daughter says if it doesn't snow she's taking her scout knife to both of our professional snow tubes. We need snow, really, we do.

^^^ anything to shake it up a little. Still thinking backloaded times are in store. Whether that means 2nd half fun or a week in March is anyone's guess. This Nina is acting differently and I don't think we have seen all the longwave looks it has to offer just yet.

SPV getting beaten to a pulp. This is the most extreme look, on the op, just for visual purposes. All ens means have similar albeit somewhat muted given they are means: