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Ralph Wiggum

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  1. Ralph Wiggum
    My buddy is driving from Philly to Frederick today and plans to drive back home tomorrow (Friday). Im not familiar with topography and micro climes down that way so I couldn't give him a solid answer on his travel conditions. Last I saw were a bunch of ice maps with Frederick in the crosshairs. Has this changed at all? I know up this way we aren't looking at much of anything frozen. Better for him to hold off leaving Frederick until Saturday AM or do you think Friday will be ok? Sorry to bother and clog the thread but I thank you for any advice.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    ^^But with this said, enso is shaping up early to be very favorable next fall into the early part of winter, so next winter may be very nice.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    These rain to ice events are super rare around SE PA. I only remember it once back in the 80s tbh. So not surprised in the least to see the threat fizzle to a huge nothingburger down this way. Slow times ahead on the ens. Maybe a calm before we get into a late winter roller coaster pattern? Or will we simply prove that dirty groundhog wrong with an early flip to spring? Been doing some deep research and looking ahead to the summer outlook and must say it is shaping up to be a scorcher where we kiss triple digits a handful of times. Get ready.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Fyp
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    King GFS led the way (albeit a touch overdone) and signaled the frozen end to Thursday-Friday and others now following. Thus, I tend to lean to the GFS for Sunday. Especially considering the usual progressive NAVGEM is on board. Laugh as you want, that is guidance with a good red flag. If you use these tools for guidance, things can be deciphered and figured out. Used verbatim then setting up to fail. Just my $.02
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Sleet accums still count towards snowfall totals, but im sure you are already aware of that.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    GEFS strongly support the op. May be even slightly better for frozen. I will be honest. I cant remember a rain to fzra to sleet ending as snow before. Im sure it has happened several times. I just can't recall it.....probably because it just isn't a very common situation. Someone mentioned 1994. Interesting.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS continues to show better CAA and a long duration gradient wave event with the low tracking under the region. Was expecting the GFS to cave to other global guidance by now: Eta: alot of that in SE PA is sleet
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    18z gfs more snow less icy. We take.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro made a big move to the GFS. Has sleet. Key is it made a move towards the King.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Yeah, I dont think most of us here actually believe the GFS. It was just concerning to see it double down the way it did.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    6 Look at that banana high!! Pressing too
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    I been saying that plus a banana high over NY State. Legit threat.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    King GFS leading the way for the late week mix blaster. 12z even better....check it out
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Taking the positive weenie approach with this suite and telling myself "it will continue to trend more favorable now that the energy is getting properly sampled"....
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Legend has it dial-up was painstakingly slow at the time and they needed to utilize Paul Revere to hand deliver the Ukie maps. Is it true that "The British are Coming" was actually code for "The Ukie is honking"?
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Totally
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Ditto. ICON, Euro, and GFS have been off and on with this one. Going to depend on how the gradient plays out and how much energy ejects out of the West, if it is consolidated or sheared, NS CAA push, and timing of said boundaries/waves. But that's like every system...always dependent on the preceding system.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    But didn't the Ukie nail that one storm way back in 1782?
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Heavy rain changing to ice...because that scenario always pans out. But it is King GFS so yeah. Seriously tho....it would be funny now that the Ukie and others lost it if the GFS somehow leads the way with this one.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    6z GFS pressed the wave South for this week then has the late weekend system as well then has like 2 or 3 other frozen events this run. Here are Thurs-Fri totals fwiw. Low confidence in this one happening but posting it for discussion:
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Bet ya can't spot the gradient/boundary:
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Timing diffs, not a huge surprise at range. Looks like we have a very brief 'relax'/gradient pattern thru Thurs-Friday then we go right back into an active/trackable pattern. Works for me....reload it.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Noted. Thanks for the pbp Randy
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Uh oh we don't want a full phase in the West
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