yoda

Sounds like a Tornado Watch coming soon https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0228.html

ENH just appeared on 1300z SPC OTLK for W MD and W PA

New Day 1 shifted the SLGT risk N and W a large amount

Sarcasm has never been my strong suit... but I've said for years my teams are: Rangers in MLB (used to be the Senators before they moved to Texas, my dad's team) Penguins in NHL before Crosby/Ovechkin came into the league. I loved Mario Bullets aka Wizards NBA Commanders in the NFL George Mason in NCAA Basketball (graduated in 2009 from there)

Never did. Grew up in Springfield VA.

Lol 5 Stanley Cups

00z NAM Nest sim radar looks really nice after about 20z

00z NAM Nest also showing some UD Helicity swaths across the region between 00z and 03z FWIW

@Kmlwx looks like both 00z NAM and 00z NAM NEST ramped up the sig tor probs

Lol Maryland

80/60 tor, 90/70 wind URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 47 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward across middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening. Widespread damaging winds up to 60-75 mph are expected along with several tornadoes as the environment becomes increasingly favorable for severe thunderstorms. A couple strong to intense tornadoes also appear posssible with any embedded supercells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east northeast of Nashville TN to 85 miles south southwest of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

Another one Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 1255 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 MSC065-077-091-151845- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-250315T1845Z/ Marion MS-Lawrence MS-Jefferson Davis MS- 1255 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ...Southeastern Lawrence and Northwest Marion County. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION...SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES... At 1253 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Salem, or 19 miles east of Mccomb, moving northeast at 45 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Southeastern Lawrence and Northwest Marion County. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Tilton and Holly Springs around 100 PM CDT. Oak Vale and Morgantown around 105 PM CDT. Goss, Arm, and Society Hill around 110 PM CDT. Progress around 115 PM CDT. Prentiss and Carson around 120 PM CDT. Bassfield around 125 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 MSC147-151830- /O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-250315T1830Z/ Walthall MS- 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR RURAL NORTHEASTERN WALTHALL COUNTY... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN WALTHALL COUNTY... At 1253 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Salem, or 17 miles west of Columbia, moving northeast at 50 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for rural northeastern Walthall county. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Salem. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1233 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 MSC113-147-151800- /O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ Walthall MS-Pike MS- 1233 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALTHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES... At 1233 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Mount Herman, or 15 miles southeast of Mccomb, moving northeast at 50 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Tylertown around 1240 PM CDT.

Mesoscale Discussion 0203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151730Z - 151830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon. Damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes will be the main concerns. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A QLCS is gradually progressing toward Middle TN from the west as semi-discrete storms attempt to approach from northeast MS. At the same time, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints continue to advect northward, supporting gradual destabilization. MLCAPE may exceed 500 J/kg, and when considering the strong low-level shear in place (e.g. large, clockwise-curved hodographs with 500+ m2/s2 effective SRH per recent HTX and OHX VADs), QLCS circulations may develop and support a tornado threat. Any preceding supercells that can advance into middle TN in the aforementioned shear environment will have the best chance at producing tornadoes. Furthermore, severe wind gusts may also accompany the approaching QLCS. As such, a Tornado Watch will be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

Tornado Watch coming shortly for Middle Tennessee

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 46 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western, Central, and Northern Alabama Southeast Mississippi * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense supercells capable of producing numerous tornadoes will spread eastward from Mississippi into Alabama this afternoon and evening. Given the very favorable environment, multiple intense to potentially violent tornadoes (EF-3/EF-4+) appear possible. Clusters of thunderstorms and embedded supercells will also pose a threat for severe/damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Huntsville AL to 55 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

Mesoscale Discussion 0202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern Louisiana into south and east-central Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 45... Valid 151653Z - 151830Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest threat for long-track intense to violent tornadoes through mid-afternoon is across portions of southern into east-central Mississippi. DISCUSSION...A line of supercells is developing within a confluence band across eastern Louisiana and south-central Mississippi. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s ahead of these supercells within the next 1 to 2 hours which should aid the maturity of multiple supercells out of this confluence band. SPC Mesoanalysis shows STP values across the area are already 4 to 6 and these values are expected to increase through the afternoon as shear and instability increase further. As these supercells mature into peak heating, they will pose a threat for long-track intense to violent tornadoes. Of particular interest are 2 consolidating supercells entering St. Helena Parish in eastern Louisiana and Lincoln County in Mississippi. These storms already have echo tops over 50kft and are near the greatest instability. The 16Z LIX RAOB acts as a proximity sounding to these storms with MLCAPE over 2200 J/kg and a STP of 6. In addition, temperatures have warmed a few degrees since it was launched. These storms, with broken cloudcover and instability downstream in a volatile kinematic environment, have the greatest potential to realize this environment over the next 1 to 3 hours. ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

Mesoscale Discussion 0200 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...extreme southeast Mississippi into much of western and central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151619Z - 151745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon, including the potential for multiple intense, destructive tornadoes. A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be issued in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, including supercells, continue to increase in coverage and intensity over in MS with the rapid approach of a potent mid-level trough. A pronounced 500 mb speed max will glance the region to the west, promoting the maintenance of ongoing storms, while also contributing to adequate deep-layer ascent for the development of new supercells in warm-sector confluence bands. As this occurs, these supercells will mature in a moistening low-level airmass, with dewpoints in the mid 60s F, overspread by 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. MLCAPE should reach around 2000 J/kg amid 400+ m2/s2 effective SRH (driven by large, elongated/curved hodographs that are already evident via regional VADs). The anticipated parameter space will be highly supportive of tornadic supercells. The more discrete, dominant supercell structures will be capable of intense, destructive tornadoes, and violent tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A severe hail/wind threat should also accompany any robust, sustained thunderstorms. A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be needed in the next hour to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX...

2/15/15 on morning Day 2 from SPC 5 tor isn't far away though

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0040.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 40 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Far Southern Michigan Far Northwest Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Saturday morning from 115 AM until 900 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts will likely continue through the night as a line of thunderstorms moves across the region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of South Bend IN to 50 miles southwest of Fort Wayne IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

Cave City, AR got rocked... major major damage with ongoing search and rescue

Oh BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Paducah KY 1209 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Pulaski County in southern Illinois... Alexander County in southern Illinois... Northwestern Mississippi County in southeastern Missouri... Scott County in southeastern Missouri... Northeastern Stoddard County in southeastern Missouri... * Until 100 AM CDT. * At 1209 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Bloomfield, moving east at 70 mph. Radar also indicates straight line winds of up to 85 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Bell City, Morley, Hay-Wood City, and Oran around 1215 AM CDT. Benton around 1220 AM CDT. Olive Branch and Horseshoe Lake Conservation Area around 1230 AM CDT. Cairo around 1240 AM CDT.

https://x.com/BradArnoldWX/status/1900775563968631078

DuPage is under a tornado warning