yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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I concur... I'm just saying so far there really hasn't been anything of major consequence from this hurricane season besides Isaiah.
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But no major hurricanes and 4 of those storms were crappy TS's that didn't do much at all. Only 2 hurricanes and both were "hits"... but Isaiah was really the first to do something this season IMO Josephine won't amount to much either... she will likely be gone in 4-5 days
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Sounds like Josephine is in the way... but I'm guessing it won't last long
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There was a confirmed TOG near Lisbon per radar in updated SWS from KLOT
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00z EURO shows nothing in the tropical department either tonight except for a small SLP north of the islands (Leeward) at 240
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00z GFS tonight shows no hurricanes at all during its entire run... there is a tropical disturbance late in the run but it mills around the Yucatan peninsula and never really develops into much of anything due to land interaction... though it tries to develop as the run ends
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And 94L is gone pretty much Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located inland over southeastern North Carolina. 1. Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated near a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Although a weak area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so, abundant dry air surrounding the system is likely to limit significant development. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today, stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda tonight, and then drift southwestward on Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Berg
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NHC disagreed on the 2AM TWO Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias, located just offshore of east-central Florida. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands does not have a surface circulation, and the associated shower activity is not well organized. However, environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of this system during the next several days, with a tropical depression possibly forming later this week. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today and on Tuesday and then stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Seems Josephine may not be far behind actually even if TD 10 dissipates tomorrow Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located near the central Bahamas, and on Tropical Depression Ten, located over the far eastern Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. A westward-moving tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a few disorganized showers. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form early next week. This system is forecast to turn northwestward, and then northward over the western Atlantic north of the Leeward Islands through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. Forecaster Blake
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Josephine
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And will be gone by tomorrow night lol
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Imagine, for example, 5 hurricanes develop off the CV islands... if they all travel over the same path over and over, the water heat content won't be as high as if they all went over water that had not yet been disturbed by prior tropical systems. Perhaps I am overthinking... but I think that's what would happen
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True... maybe we get saved by some overturning/upwelling though if hurricanes keep going over the same paths of water
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First moderate risk day in quite a long time... since mid June? Wind driven... and it's a small mod risk ETA: never seen a hatched wind on a 15 percent before... on the new Day 2
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https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1282664827299610627
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Maue says that the GFS shows no tropical activity for rest of month of July https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1282687140409868294
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Dont see this type of warning every day... who wants to chase this storm... Severe Thunderstorm Warning NEC087-145-130130- /O.NEW.KGLD.SV.W.0142.200713T0100Z-200713T0130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Goodland KS 800 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Red Willow County in southwestern Nebraska... Eastern Hitchcock County in southwestern Nebraska... * Until 830 PM CDT. * At 800 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast of McCook, moving east at 60 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Locations impacted include... McCook, Indianola, Danbury and Lebanon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4021 10020 4000 10019 4000 10022 4014 10087 4025 10052 TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 281DEG 53KT 4015 10057 HAIL...1.50IN WIND...90MPH $$
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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure located inland over central Georgia continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the southeastern U.S. This system is expected to move generally northeastward toward the coast of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states later this week. Some development of this system is possible late this week if it moves over water. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Blake likes Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A small area of low pressure located about 400 miles west-southwest of Bermuda is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. This system's low-level circulation has become better defined during the past several hours, and a tropical depression could form later today or Saturday evening while the system moves east-northeastward at about 15 mph. By Sunday night, however, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant development to occur. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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8pm TWO says 10% chance... and basically has 24-36 hours Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms have persisted during the past several hours in association with a small low pressure system located about midway between Florida and Bermuda. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next day or two while the low moves generally east-northeastward. By Sunday night, however, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant development to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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It's not as above normal as say the areas around the lower Carribbean or just off SE coast... besides the small area near the Big Bend of FL
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See a good amount of recurve and Caribbean cruisers if that is to be believed... not much action in GOM or around the islands
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This was interesting to read in the MCD... bolded mine... talks about heat bursts later tonight -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0825.html Mesoscale Discussion 0825 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 Areas affected...western Oklahoma...far eastern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253... Valid 042337Z - 050130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of storms is beginning to congeal into a line across western Oklahoma. These storms will continue moving southeast with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. DISCUSSION...Storms with a history of severe wind including reports of 70 and 80 mph and large hail (1 inch) are moving southeast across western Oklahoma. Storms are beginning to form a more coherent line with some evidence of an increasing rear inflow jet developing behind the center of the line. Surface temperatures of 95-105 F and a deep, well mixed boundary layer with surface dewpoint depressions of 35-50 F are likely to contribute to efficient mixing of strong to damaging wind gusts to the surface. If the line continues to organize, the threat for damaging winds will increase in the short term. Large hail will also remain possible. These storms will begin to weaken after sunset, but the severe threat will remain for the next 2-4 hours. As these storms begin to collapse later tonight, strong winds could emanate outward from the cluster with heat bursts possible.
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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..
yoda replied to wolfie09's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
If you live in Binghamton... article says not in Western New York. Perhaps later maybe... nice to see snow in Buffalo today though -
Figured we should bump this thread since we are discussing drought conditions again already in the main thread lol
