yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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TD 15 remains at 5am... not going to make it to TS Nana per disco, should be gone in a few days as shear destroys it
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No recon till later today... and no LLC (or no closed surface wind circ as said above in the 2am TWO) no upgrade at 5am
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NHC still says no at 2 am on their TWO about it due to no closed surface wind circ... which I guess means no closed LLC Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a little over a hundred miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. 1. A seemingly well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is moving quickly westward across the central Caribbean Sea, but satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago again showed that the system has not developed a closed surface wind circulation. The wave is, however, producing an area of winds near tropical storm force south of the coast of Haiti, which will move near or south of Jamaica later this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Too many people are making jokes about the ops (main models) past few days showing nothing... that's why. Just wanted to be sure. It's on tropical tidbits. Click ensemble... then gfs-para. Then you can choose the hours you want to look at from there on the scroll button
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No TD at 11pm... guess we will wait till tomorrow
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I think he meant the website weathermodels... not the actual ones... at least I thought that @TradeWinds is that what you meant? Or were you trolling about the actual weather models themselves?
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Shows how much it was forgotten by me since it was sheared to pieces in the GOM before Laura Guess it will be Nana then
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Well here comes Marco that will move out to sea... 3. An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky
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This is interesting... wave going to break in 2 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Laura, centered inland over Arkansas. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. However, the southern part of the wave is expected be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1112 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1101 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E HAYES 44.37N 101.00W 08/27/2020 M104 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.
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97mph wind gust reported in the MCS in SD tonight PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1119 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1100 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE BUNKER 44.25N 101.06W 08/27/2020 M97 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER STATION. RADAR ESTIMATED TIME AND APPROXIMATE LOCATION.
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Significant Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday, August 27, 2020
yoda replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
@weatherwiz is going to go full weenie when he sees the new Day 2 from SPC... ENH risk with 30% hatched wind... 5% tor... and 15% hatched hail in SE NY/NE PA/NW NJ -
down to 20 percent in the 8pm TWO Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located near the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a broad area of low pressure and tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move westward across the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday and it will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall there. Some slow development of this wave is possible during the next couple of days while it moves across the eastern tropical Atlantic before environmental conditions become less favorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi
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NHC doesn't seem too enthused about it in the 2AM TWO -- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/190524_MIATWOAT.shtml
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00z Euro doesn't do much with the first wave... 2nd wave it develops looking at 850mb vorticity but then seems to lose it for a while as it heads just north of DR/Haiti and Cuba... then gets its act together again... looks like once it gets into the Eastern GOM it decides to reappear and strengthen... interesting run
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Terrifying in its overdone as usual... CMC is a crap tropical model And really? You expect the 2nd tropical system to ride over all of Cuba and deepen? Come on...
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2 AM TWO has double lemons Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located just over a hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kyle, located several hundred miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. 1. A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is likely to limit development while the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today and Monday and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. After that time, the system is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. Another tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Berg
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00z EURO has signs of SLP... two of them in the MDR... but ends up doing next to nothing with them and keeps them very weak (>1008mb)
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CMC is down in Nicaragua and Honduras... and nothing shows up behind it in the MDR. GFS is a TS into the Yucatan and hurricane into Southern Mexico... also with no real tropical systems behind it in the MDR
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lol using the ICON for tropical systems
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Lot of weak TS in there
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Hope we will see some type of this again soon...
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Its just model runs, but none of the 00z runs tonight (EURO/GFS and yes, even the GGEM) show any tropical disturbances or development anywhere besides Josephine disappearing in a few days and maybe Kyle going out to sea in the North Atlantic. Pacific side of things there is some development... and both the Euro and the GFS tonight both show an intense tropical system out there. Seems we may be waiting more towards the first week of September for tropical development out in the CV region. Of course, this could change on the next run of the models... but so far, the Atlantic is quiet. Could it be a ticking time bomb waiting to explode once a strong wave comes off the coast of Africa? Yes, most likely... but models see nothing... for now I'm not trying to downplay the risks or the signs or call bust... far from it. Just calling it as I see it on the models right now. Seems we may have to wait just a lil bit longer for the Atlantic side of the Tropics to rear its ugly head again
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Watch this become Kyle just because Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. A broad area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina is forecast to move east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces over the next several days. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves over warm sea surface temperatures of the Gulf Stream. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Roberts
