yoda

MRGL remains for Day 2 on 1730 SPC OTLK... but talks of an upgrade

I would have thought higher in teh wind forecast with the eye report in the VDM.... guess we shall see then

Now let's see if this system sneaks in a quick name change from TD 15 to Omar before its gone

There it is... but set at 50mph Tropical Storm Nana Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1205 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM NANA... Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the potential tropical cyclone has become Tropical Storm Nana. The maximum winds are estimated to be 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued to update the forecast within the hour. SUMMARY OF 1205 PM AST...1605 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 77.7W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake/Stewart

True. You could only go high risk here if the event was unfolding with as you say numerous tornadoes (EF2 or something) or a derecho coming in from the west. The derecho in 2012 however, caught the region, including local TV mets off-guard per the NWS report though.

Damn... hope you got your money back then

Here's the sounding

I don't think we will ever see a high risk here -- even the derecho in late June that was rampaging through the Ohio Valley the night of the infamous 00z LWX sounding (102/70 I think it was with nearly 6000 SBCAPE) only garnered a moderate risk on the 2000 SPC OTLK and the 0100 OTLK

Question is will they send out a special update to name it TS Nana or just wait till the 2pm advisory?

Ding ding. 100% correct. Part of it also is the $15 per hour push (though I admit that I pushed for it as well) for many of the jobs by today's younger generation as well. Many of the younger generation that are coming out of HS into college don't want to do what they consider as menial jobs. In addition, if it gets "too hard", they quit.

That does look like a pretty good sounding for an isolated brief tornado or two

PTC 16 will either be Nana or short lived Omar shortly at 5pm IMO

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the vigorous tropical disturbance located south of Jamaica that the NHC has been tracking the past few days across the Caribbean Sea. An earlier report of 35 kt winds this morning from ship MAOR4 is the basis for the 35-kt initial intensity on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. (PTC-16) The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/16 kt, based mainly on past scatterometer surface wind data and passive microwave satellite fix data. A strong deep-layer to the north of the system is expected to build slowly westward over the next few days, keeping the disturbance moving in a general west-northwestward to westward direction through 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest shortly thereafter when the system will be inland over Central America. The NHC official forecast track lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected-consensus model HCCA. The disturbance has already developed an upper-level anticyclone, with outflow only restricted in the northeastern quadrant due to northeasterly shear of about 15 kt. This modest northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually subside to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, which should allow for at least some slow but steady strengthening, given that sea-surface temperatures (SST) will be 29.5-30.5 deg C along the track. Occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air might hinder development for the next 24-36 hours, but model guidance shows that the atmosphere is expected to moisten thereafter and right up until landfall. The official intensity forecast is similar to the consensus of the intensity guidance through 24 hours, and then is a little above the consensus at 36 h and 48 h due to the very warm waters, moistening atmosphere, and low shear conditions. The statistical SHIPS guidance suggests that the cyclone could reach hurricane strength just prior to landfall. This alternate scenario will be evaluated on the next advisory cycle. Due to the system's expected proximity to the north coast of Honduras and Roatan Island, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for those areas. Additional watches and possible warnings will likely be required later today for Guatemala, Belize, and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.1N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 02/0000Z 16.4N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 16.7N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF JAMAICA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE OFFSHORE ROATAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 77.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala-Honduras border, including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern Honduras * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of Guatemala, Belize, and the southern Yucatan Peninsula later today. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 77.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional development is expected today and on Wednesday, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form at any time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly northeast through northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible over the northern portions of Honduras beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica, and will continue into Wednesday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 The depression has become better organized this morning with the center embedded in the western side of a growing area of deep convection. An earlier buoy report recorded adjusted maximum winds of 32 kt, and roughly half of the estimates show that the depression is a tropical storm. Conservatively, the winds will be held at 30 kt until we will see what the scatterometer shows this afternoon. Increasing shear is expected to limit any significant strengthening, although it does seem more likely than not that this system will barely make it to a tropical storm later today. The shear is forecast to get quite strong by tomorrow afternoon, so weakening is anticipated by then, and persistence of that shear is expected to cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours. While the initial part of the forecast is a little higher than the last one, this change is really in the noise level for intensity prediction and is only noticeable because of the tropical storm threshold. The initial motion has turned toward the east-northeast or 060/12 kt. There is reasonable agreement among the guidance that this motion will continue through tomorrow, and then become eastward during the next 2-3 days around the northern side of the subtropical ridge, followed by a northeastward turn by day 4. Similar to the last forecast, most of the uncertainty is with the speed, rather than the direction of the cyclone. The new forecast is closer to the faster guidance and the previous NHC track prediction. Dissipation is shown at 120h, although a few models have it occuring as early as days 2-3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 34.7N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 35.6N 71.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 36.5N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 37.2N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 37.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0000Z 37.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 37.0N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 39.5N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

TD 15 remains at 5am... not going to make it to TS Nana per disco, should be gone in a few days as shear destroys it

No recon till later today... and no LLC (or no closed surface wind circ as said above in the 2am TWO) no upgrade at 5am

MRGL risk tomorrow for wind... SLGT risk for Thursday

NHC still says no at 2 am on their TWO about it due to no closed surface wind circ... which I guess means no closed LLC Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a little over a hundred miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. 1. A seemingly well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is moving quickly westward across the central Caribbean Sea, but satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago again showed that the system has not developed a closed surface wind circulation. The wave is, however, producing an area of winds near tropical storm force south of the coast of Haiti, which will move near or south of Jamaica later this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Guess I will try my hand at this again lol DCA +1.8 NYC +1.4 BOS +1.5 ORD +0.5 ATL +1.7 IAH +1.1 DEN +2.0 PHX +3.5 SEA +2.4

Remember to end your post with bingo bango

Its not on the Euro... so I'm tossing it

Too many people are making jokes about the ops (main models) past few days showing nothing... that's why. Just wanted to be sure. It's on tropical tidbits. Click ensemble... then gfs-para. Then you can choose the hours you want to look at from there on the scroll button

No TD at 11pm... guess we will wait till tomorrow