yoda

Backstrom will miss Game 2.. in concussion protocol... but Eller will be back in the lineup https://www.nhl.com/news/nicklas-backstrom-washington-capitals-status/c-318455854

Watch this become Kyle just because Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. A broad area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina is forecast to move east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces over the next several days. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves over warm sea surface temperatures of the Gulf Stream. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Roberts

Already pouring here as a storm has developed right over top of me

Morning AFD from LWX tells us why

Flash Flood Watch for everyone starting this morning into this evening

yes please

Very interesting and thanks for the response, appreciate it. Sounds like something to do in my spare time lol

Never heard of WOFs before... anyone else heard of it before? What kind of model ensemble is it?

BWI Airport reported 2.39 inches of rain in 55 minutes (between 4:54pm and 5:49pm) https://mobile.twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1293666171460493314

Significant flood wave moving down the Patapsco River Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 702 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 MDC005-027-510-130045- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-200813T0045Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Baltimore City MD-Howard MD-Baltimore MD- 702 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT FOR EASTERN HOWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTIES AND BALTIMORE CITY... At 701 PM EDT, widespread flash flooding was reported, especially in the Catonsville, Oella, Arbutus, and Lansdowne areas. There was also a significant flood wave moving down the Patapsco River with flooding beginning in the Patapsco State Park and Elkridge areas. Over three inches of rain have fallen in some locations. Flash flooding is already occurring. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Some locations that may experience flooding include... Baltimore... Columbia... Pikesville... Elkridge... Historic Ellicott City... Ellicott City... Towson... Catonsville... Woodlawn... Randallstown... Owings Mills... Milford Mill... Lochearn... Arbutus... Brooklyn Park... Savage-guilford... Ilchester... Linthicum... Garrison... Lansdowne...

Map version

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 429 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Day 1 Valid 01Z Wed Aug 12 2020 - 12Z Wed Aug 12 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE HEART OF THE MID ATLANTIC URBAN CORRIDOR... ...Eastern U.S... There is a marked potential for scattered intense rainfall today, which first appears as a local maximum in the hi-res model consensus, but when one zooms in it comes more fully into focus. It is difficult to outline a Moderate Risk area for flash flooding associated with loosely organized summertime convection within weak low level inflow winds. Today, however, we have the heaviest model signal located across an area that is both urban and already saturated, and the environmental signal for heavy local rainfall rates is pretty exceptional. The 00Z KIAD sounding at Dulles Airport was particularly telling, with steep lapse rates and little inhibition, coupled with nearly a 2.00 inch precipitable water value. An upper trough is merely brushing across the top of this region, and into northern New England, and while this will provide only minimal lift, it will drop a cold front into position across southern Pennsylvania to near NYC by midday, helping to focus the pool of moisture and instability over the Mid-Atlantic states. Models forecast a swath of MUCAPE 2000 J/kg or more in the Moderate Risk area. Consumption of this instability pool may be chaotic, owing to storm initiation along sea breezes, mountain ridges, and outflows. But the net effect is usually for fairly broad scale overturning, resulting in scattered very heavy rain. In recent events the HREF has been good at placing the general axis of heaviest rainfall, and today that axis is essentially right along I-95 from Philadelphia to Washington D.C., and also cutting across the wet soil footprint left behind by a soggy 2-week period. We expect to see 2.0 inch PW in the pre convective environment, and note that the NAM Nest produces spotty 3-inch per hour rain rates today. That model frequently produces 2.0 to 2.50 inch rain rates, but rates of 3 are fairly rare in the model. This seems entirely plausible given the moisture, instability, and mean 0-6 km winds of only zero to five knots. Although there is not enough shear for well organized storms or training, the individual cells should be very robust and efficient, as well as nearly stationary. The flash flood threat may only last for about 4 hours, give or take, along the urban corridor, beginning around 17Z, but within that short period there may be some significant flash flooding.

Yikes PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 556 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0554 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 WNW MANASSAS PARK 38.78N 77.47W 08/12/2020 CITY OF MANASSAS VA 911 CALL CENTER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO A SINKHOLE AT THE INTERSECTION OF MOSEBY CT. AND MOSEBY DR.

LWX seems the total opposite in their morning AFD if I am reading what you posted right

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 407 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... West central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Central Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 800 AM EDT. * At 406 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the area. Up to three inches of rain have already fallen. Rain of one to two inches is expected in the next hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Centreville... Linton Hall... Bull Run... Manassas... Sudley... Manassas Park...

What model shows 60s for highs?

Yup already BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 355 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 VAC059-153-683-685-121400- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0110.200812T0755Z-200812T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Fairfax VA-City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA- City of Manassas VA- 355 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Warning for... West central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Central Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 1000 AM EDT Wednesday. * At 354 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain which will cause flooding. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of up to an inch are possible. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Bull Run, Manassas, Sudley and Manassas Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Looks like the line is slowly forming and moving slowly east too... could be one of those long term storms that last a while

Woke me up here in West Springfield as I was falling asleep

I concur... I'm just saying so far there really hasn't been anything of major consequence from this hurricane season besides Isaiah.

But no major hurricanes and 4 of those storms were crappy TS's that didn't do much at all. Only 2 hurricanes and both were "hits"... but Isaiah was really the first to do something this season IMO Josephine won't amount to much either... she will likely be gone in 4-5 days

Flash Flood Watch posted for tomorrow for most in the region except NW VA/E WV and W MD from Hagerstown westward... 1-2 inches with potential for 4 inches in isolated areas... Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 319 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ025-026-029- 036>040-050>057-501-502-505>508-120400- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0020.200812T1600Z-200813T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys- Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham-Page-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, and Wintergreen 319 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, and Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore, and St. Marys. The District of Columbia. In Virginia, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Western Loudoun. * From Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening * A cold front will move into the area Wednesday and then stall out. Numerous slow moving showers and thunderstorms will pose a risk of flash flooding. Thunderstorms could produce one to two inches of rain with isolated amounts up to four inches possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Sounds like Josephine is in the way... but I'm guessing it won't last long

Looks like next chance for severe might by the Sunday-Monday time frame... LWX mentions potential briefly in their long term disco this evening

There was a confirmed TOG near Lisbon per radar in updated SWS from KLOT