yoda

Good amount of reports for a late SLGT risk day https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

MRGL risk from SPC today for isolated damaging wind gusts

Guess I better start looking at the Euro tonight LMAO

Looks like our best friend Mr. Wind could be playing along too lol... from morning AFD from LWX about next week

Sounds like FWs coming later per morning LWX AFD

Lots of rain... again https://mobile.twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1326453052346429440

Looks like #30 is coming soon... possibly this weekend Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move slowly westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next couple of days. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Eta has become better organized over the past few hours, with a better-defined eye feature on the Key West radar. Satellite pictures also show a more symmetric presentation and a large cluster of deep convection near the center. Radar data has shown increasing wind speeds in the mid-levels, which supports conservatively raising the initial wind speed to 60 kt. The current position is southwest of the eye feature on radar, assuming some shear remains, but a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm in a few hours to acquire better data on both the initial position and intensity. It appears that the center of Eta has re-formed to the north- northeast tonight, so an initial motion is hard to determine, but is estimated to be northward at about 10 kt. Remarkably, model guidance has become well clustered just east of the previous forecast track as it seems apparent that Eta will now recurve around the ridge toward the Florida Big Bend region and out into the western Atlantic Ocean. The biggest change is that the models are faster than before, and the official forecast follows that lead, along with a small eastward forecast adjustment, near or just east of the model consensus. Further strengthening is possible today while the shear remains low-to-moderate. However, all of the models do show increasing shear by tonight, and the NHC forecast continues to call for weakening of Eta as it approaches the west coast of Florida. However, it would take only a small forecast error to allow Eta to come ashore as a hurricane, and hence a Hurricane Watch has been issued this morning. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Eta makes landfall, and strong shear should prevent any regeneration over the western Atlantic Ocean. The new forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory, mostly due to current trends, and is closer to the more bullish HMON and HWRF models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible early Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may be needed today. 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida and spread northward across portions of West and North Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida on Wednesday, especially across previously inundated areas, and across portions of West Florida through Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 25.0N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AS ETA INTENSIFIES FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 84.1W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

Looks like Honduras/Nicaragua are going to be under the gun this weekend again from tropical activity Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and on newly formed Subtropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic. 1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move westward into more conducive environmental conditions, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Theta has generally changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, including a central dense overcast and a relatively small radius of maximum wind. However, the storm is still entangled with an upper-level trough, and based on all of these factors, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. The storm is moving due eastward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A trough to the north of the subtropical storm is expected to lift out, and Theta should be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. Theta should transition to a tropical storm later today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Little change in intensity is expected during the next several days due to mixed environmental conditions. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable, which should be supportive of deep convection. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 28.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 29.2N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 29.7N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 31.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 31.4N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 32.2N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 33.1N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 ...THETA EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 39.5W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 There hasn't been a lot of change to the cloud pattern of Eta overnight, with the center apparently located on the northwestern side of a small central dense overcast. Scatterometer data from earlier indicated 35-40 kt winds, and with the typical undersampling from that instrument, along with consensus 45-kt estimates from TAFB/SAB, so Eta's initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the storm this morning. Eta is forecast to be in a low-to-moderate shear environment over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. Gradual strengthening is expected through early Thursday, with the main restrictive factor being nearby dry air. After that time, increasing shear and drier mid-level air are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate of this weakening is pretty uncertain, and a lot depends on how much Eta can re-intensify over the next couple of days. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, which is quite close to the consensus guidance. The storm has basically become stationary overnight. Eta should drift to north today due to steering flow changes with a nearby upper-level low losing influence while ridging east of Florida builds southward. A slow northward track is then anticipated for a couple of days over the east-central Gulf of Mexico in this flow pattern. Beyond that time, model guidance is in rather poor agreement, ranging from a stronger system moving faster to the northeast due to broad troughing over the south-central United States, to a weaker tropical cyclone getting caught under a narrow ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and turning west-southwestward. Since the new forecast expects Eta to be weakening, the NHC forecast will be west of the consensus and west of the previous track. I have little confidence in the long-range track forecast due to its seeming dependence on the intensity, and the wide spread in the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba. 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 22.9N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 23.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 25.0N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 26.8N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 27.3N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 28.8N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Still 50mph at 4am... but this time its stationary in movement BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...ETA LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 85.5W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

You mean 15% wind and 5% tor... SLGT risk

BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE OPEN NORTHEAST ATLANTIC... ...RECORD-BREAKING 29TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 40.3W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 40.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general east-northeast motion is expected to continue during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours followed by little change in strength through Thursday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Over the past 12 h convection has slowly consolidated near the center of a non-tropical area of low pressure over the far northeast Atlantic. Earlier, there was a 2325 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed that the low-level circulation had become more detached from the warm frontal boundary located to its northeast. In addition, the ASCAT pass showed that winds have increased to near 45 kt on the southeast portion of the circulation near where coldest convective cloud tops were located. Both a 2137 UTC SSMIS and 2324 UTC AMSU microwave pass showed convective banding under the cirrus canopy near where the highest winds were observed. However, water vapor satellite imagery still shows the presence of a broad upper-level low tangled up with the low-level circulation embedded in the convection. Therefore, Theta has been designated as a subtropical storm with maximum wind of 45 kt. Theta has been on a near due east heading over the last 12 h at 90/13 kt. Currently the cyclone is located south of a broad deep-layer longwave trough. This trough is expected to bypass the cyclone to the east and Theta will primarily be steered by southwesterly flow on the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the Cape Verde islands. This flow will steer Theta slowly to the east-northeast over the next 3-5 days. The track guidance is in good agreement with this solution, with only minor differences in across-track spread. There are somewhat larger differences in the along-track spread related to different forward motion, but the latest NHC track forecast elected to stay close to the track consensus at this time. Thetas structure has evolved from a frontal cyclone to a subtropical cyclone, though a frontal boundary remains nearby on the northeast side of the circulation. This boundary is expected to gradually dissipate and Theta is expected to fully transition to a tropical storm in 24 h as convection erodes the upper-level cyclonic flow overhead. The maximum sustained winds were increased slightly in the first 12 h of the forecast but are kept at 50 kt through 120 h which is on the high end of the intensity guidance. Theta is the 29th named storm in the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, breaking the previous record of 28th named storms in 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 28.8N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 12H 10/1200Z 29.0N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 24H 11/0000Z 29.1N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 11/1200Z 29.5N 34.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 30.0N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 31.0N 28.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 32.2N 24.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 33.3N 20.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

STS Theta it is at 10

Doesn't look like much chance or time for Eta to become a hurricane again Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 Eta's convective structure appears to be gradually becoming better organized this evening. The center is located near the northern edge of a band that wraps around the southeastern and southern portions of the circulation. Recent subjective Dvorak data T-numbers were 3.0, which still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. With Eta's structure gradually improving and a forecast for the cyclone to remain over SSTs of around 28C and in generally low vertical wind shear conditions, some re-strengthening is likely during the next 24-36 hours. Although the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta remaining just below hurricane strength, there is a possibility that the storm will briefly regain hurricane status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so. By 48 hours, when the cyclone moves over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are likely to result in weakening, and like the previous forecast, the new NHC forecast indicates that Eta could weaken to a tropical depression by the end of the period. Some of the global model guidance suggests that Eta could weaken even faster than indicated below after 72 hours. Recent satellite fixes indicate that Eta is moving southwestward but a little slower than before at around 8 kt. Eta should slow its forward progress overnight and then meander over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as steering current collapse. In 36-48 hours, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United States. After 72 hours, the spread in the guidance increases when Eta is expected to be weaker and be steered by the low-level flow. Most of the guidance shows a northwestward to northward motion at that time period but have varying forward speed. The NHC track shows a slow north-northwest motion late in the period to account for these differences. There is lower than normal confidence in the latter portion of the track forecast given the large spread in the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida tonight. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida over the next several days. 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 23.2N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 22.8N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 23.4N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 25.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 26.6N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 27.0N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 29.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Still 50mph at 10

Sounds fun... LWX AFD for Wed to Fri

So... 2 more upcoming? One in the Eastern Caribbean and another out in the NE Atlantic toward the Azores? Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located near Florida Bay. Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is showing some signs of organization. This system will likely gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics this week, and a tropical or subtropical storm could develop within a few days while this system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medum...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Additional information on the central Atlanic low pressure area can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. $$ Forecaster Blake